The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox vs. Toronto Raptors – $8,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
After improving in each of the last three seasons, Fox has seemingly regressed. His numbers are down across the board in scoring, assists, rebounds, steals, and triples.
There’s hope for him to improve, though, as he’s shooting just 41.8% from the field and 24.3% from beyond the arc. Those percentages should eventually regress positively, and maybe they already have. Over his last four games, Fox has shot 46.9% from the field and 36.4% from downtown. In that span, he’s averaged 24.8 points, 6.0 assists, 2.8 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 1.2 blocks, and 1.6 triples.
Top Value: Patty Mills vs. Orlando Magic – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
It’s hard to ignore the type of value Mills can offer on tonight’s slate at such a cheap price. He comes in near the bottom of the price range on both sites, and plugging him into lineups can clear space to pay up elsewhere.
Mills has scored at least 21 points in two of his last three games, and he’s been in the starting five in each of Brooklyn’s last two games with Joe Harris out. On the season, the Aussie sharpshooter is nailing a career-high 2.8 triples at a ridiculous 47.9% clip.
Keep riding the hot hand and reap the savings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Paul George at New Orleans Pelicans – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
George is firmly in the MVP conversation thanks to his strong play for the Kawhi-less Clippers this season. So far, PG13 has averaged 26.7 points, 8.0 boards, 5.1 dimes, 2.1 steals, and 3.1 triples per contest while carrying the load for an otherwise limited squad.
George comes in with a huge ceiling tonight against a Pelicans team ranked dead-last in defensive rating (113.2). George is projected to have low ownership on both sites tonight, at 2-4% on DraftKings and 13-16% on FanDuel, giving him a 99% and 96% Leverage Rating, respectively.
Top Value: Talen Horton-Tucker at Boston Celtics – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
There’s a chance LeBron James (abdomen) returns tonight after a long absence, though even if he’s available, he may be on a minutes restriction. Furthermore, THT has played far too well to be left out of the rotation with James back in the picture.
Over his last two games, Horton-Tucker has averaged 26.5 points, 9.0 boards, 2.5 dimes, and 2.0 combined blocks/steals. He’s been a walking bucket in the three games he’s played this season, and he’s posted at least 40 fantasy points in both of the aforementioned contests. At such a low price, he’s poised to return some serious value.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Over his last six games, Tatum has averaged 26.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.7 combined blocks/steals, and he’s hot off a 34-point performance against the Hawks on Wednesday.
Over the Lakers’ last two games, Giannis Antetokounmpo (47 points) and DeMar DeRozan (38 points) set season-highs in scoring. Tatum is the next talented forward in line to go off against the Lakers, and he comes in with a lofty ceiling on tonight’s slate.
Top Value: Terrence Ross at Brooklyn Nets – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Ross has scored at least 17 points and commanded at least a 24% usage rating in three of his last four games, including back-to-back 19-point showings heading into tonight’s clash with the Nets. At such a low salary, he’s got to be on your radar as a salary-saving option for tonight’s slate.
Our model certainly agrees.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $12,300 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Giannis is a lock to occupy this spot on any slate, so here we go again! In the Bucks’ seven-point victory over the Lakers on Wednesday, Giannis erupted for a season-high 47 points to go with nine boards. That represents the fifth time this season he’s gone for at least 30 points and nine boards, and the second time he’s gone for at least 40 points and nine boards.
His price is soaring higher and higher, and at such a lofty salary, Giannis is flying too close to the sun. With so many appealing options on the slate, it may be time to consider alternative options before the wax melts from Icarus’ wings.
Top Value: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl at Milwaukee Bucks – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
JRE isn’t nearly the value on FanDuel as he is on DraftKings, but he’s worth highlighting here as a potential option on both sites. His bottom-of-the-barrel DraftKings price gives him a 97% Bargain Rating.
Over his last four games (all starts), the rookie has averaged 7.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.8 combined blocks/steals, and 1.0 triples across 25.5 minutes. In that span, he’s averaged just under one fantasy point per minute.
Center
Top Ceiling: Deandre Ayton vs. Dallas Mavericks – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Obviously, the reigning MVP Nikola Jokic should have the highest ceiling on any slate, so I’m going for a different angle here. The Joker faces a Chicago defense allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing centers. Conversely, Deandre Ayton faces a Dallas defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Ayton has played well in two games following a five-game absence due to a leg injury, averaging 20.5 points and 12.5 boards in that span. He sports a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, but he’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel, giving him a 90% Leverage Rating on that site.
Top Value: Khem Birch at Sacramento Kings – $3,000 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
A common theme of this article throughout the season has been “Play your centers against the Kings!” That will be the theme tonight, and that’s where Birch comes in.
With OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa out, Birch posted a season-high 14 points to go with three boards, one assist, and two swipes across 24 minutes Thursday. Anunoby has already been ruled out tonight, and Achiuwa is questionable.
