The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Memphis Grizzlies – $10,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
It’s been an up-and-down season for Luka peppered with injuries and highlighted by a decline in production. Tonight, however, he’s in a great spot to provide some value for DFS players.
Memphis is playing on the second night of a back-to-back set after a narrow win against Minnesota last night. That bodes well for Doncic to exploit a potentially gassed defense and try to end the Grizzlies’ 11-game win streak. Doncic has averaged 22/13/10 over his last two and gets a strong pace-up spot in Memphis. I’m willing to pay up for him rather than dropping major coin on Steph Curry or Trae Young, who have failed to live up to their five-figure salaries in recent games.
Top Value: Tyrese Maxey vs. Boston Celtics – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Maxey played 38 minutes in his return from protocols but went just 10/3/3 against the Hornets on Tuesday. The stat line wasn’t too impressive, but the fact that he played nearly 40 minutes means that he should be expected to see a similar workload tonight.
Maxey cooled off before entering protocols after his hot start to the season, but he’s still got a ceiling of 46 points on both sites. This is a good pace-up spot with a favorable Opponent Plus/Minus for Maxey, especially since he’ll likely draw Dennis Schroder on defense rather than Marcus Smart (thigh), who’s expected to be out.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Murray is hot off a career-high 32 points to go with10 rebounds, 11 assists, and three steals against Houston on Tuesday. He’s now tied for second in the NBA with seven triple-doubles.
The breakout season for Murray has continued in full force, and he’s our top ceiling play at shooting guard tonight. He’s averaged 47.2 fantasy points per game this season, but he has 14 games with at least 50 fantasy points and four games with at least 60.
Note: Murray is eligible at PG/SG on FanDuel and PG on DraftKings
Top Value: John Konchar vs. Dallas Mavericks – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Konchar played hero ball last night in a closely contested matchup with the Timberwolves that came down to the final minutes. Konchar posted a whopping 15/17 double-double and hit a dagger three up 109-106 late to go up 112-106 and clinch Memphis’ 11th straight victory.
With Dillon Brooks still on the shelf and De’Anthony Melton’s playing time on the decline, Konchar’s value has gotten a shot in the arm. At this low price point, he’s got the potential to return 10x value if he plays like he did against the Timberwolves. He’s particularly valuable on DraftKings, where he has an 86% Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jaylen Brown at Philadelphia 76ers – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Brown has been just as productive as Jayson Tatum for much of the season, and he’s been even better since the calendar turned over to 2022.
In six January games, Brown has averaged 29.7 points, 9.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 3.8 triples. He scored 30 points against the Sixers when the teams last met on Dec. 20.
Top Value: De’Andre Hunter at Miami Heat – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Hunter posted 15 points, one rebound, one assist, and a block in his first game back, logging 24 minutes and taking 11 shots. He missed nearly two months due to a wrist injury, so the playing time and shot attempts were certainly encouraging.
With Cam Reddish now off to New York and Hunter already showing signs of aggression on offense, he’s worth a flier at his currently-low price on both sites.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Philadelphia 76ers – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Tatum has averaged 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.0 stocks, and 2.0 triples over his last two games and has scored at least 30 points in two of his last three contests.
He averaged 46 fantasy points over two prior meetings with Philly, recording a double-double in one of them, and he’s got a 60-point ceiling on both sites. Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both quality options tonight in a divisional clash with Philly.
Top Value: Christian Wood at Sacramento Kings – $7,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Since his one-game suspension, Wood has scored at least 20 points in four of five games and averaged 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.6 triples, and 1.4 steals in that span.
It’s a pace-down spot for Wood and the Rockets, but he gets a huge Opponent Plus/Minus thanks to Sacramento’s porous frontcourt defense. The over/under on the Kings/Rockets game is a massive 238.5, the highest on the slate. There should be plenty of opportunities for Wood to excel in this one.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Boston Celtics – $11,200 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Embiid has scored at least 30 points in eight straight heading into Friday’s clash with the Celtics, and he’s averaged 32.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.4 blocks in that span.
He demolished Boston the last time these teams met on Dec. 20 with a 41/10/5 line that included four blocks and two steals. Arguably the most consistently dominant player in basketball right now, Embiid remains the highest-ceiling play on tonight’s slate.
Top Value: Mason Plumlee vs. Orlando Magic – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Plumlee hasn’t been a great play for much of the season, but he’s produced in games against bad defenses, and that’s exactly the spot he’s in tonight.
Plumlee had one of his best games of the season against Orlando back in October, and he’s averaged 10.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.0 blocks in two games against the Magic on the season. Our model favors him as one of the top values at center, and he makes for an interesting pivot in tournaments away from some of the more popular options at his position.
