The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Los Angeles Lakers – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Young missed Wednesday’s contest due to a lower back contusion, but if he’s available tonight, he’s in another great spot to smash. The star point guard heads into this one, sporting a three-game double-double streak in which he’s averaged 39 points and 12 dimes.
The last time Young was on the court, he went off for 56 points and 14 dimes against Portland and scored over 80 fantasy points on DraftKings and nearly 80 on FanDuel. Young gets one of the most beneficial scores in Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential, making him an absolute stud if he’s available.
Top Value: Jordan Clarkson at Toronto Raptors – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Utah will be severely limited tonight, with Donovan Mitchell (back), Mike Conley (rest), Bojan Bogdanovic (finger), Rudy Gobert (protocols), and Joe Ingles (protocols) all out. The Jazz will be without their top three scorers and top three facilitators, opening the door for the reigning Sixth Man of the Year to have a huge night.
Clarkson is questionable with a back injury, but given the other holes in the roster, it’s likely he gives it a go. Clarkson is easily the best value on the slate, and our model loves him with over an +18 Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $10,600 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
After an incredible four-game run in which he scored at least 30 points in every game and posted three triple-doubles, Harden has cooled off considerably over his last two contests. In that stretch, Harden has averaged 18.5 points, 7.0 dimes, and 4.5 rebounds while shooting just 38.5% from the floor.
Recency bias should drive his ownership down, and that’s where we can take advantage in tournaments. Harden’s ceiling is nearly 70 fantasy points on DraftKings and FanDuel. Kyrie Irving will be out tonight because the Nets are playing at home, and Brooklyn has an implied point total of 117.7. Opportunities abound for Harden on this slate.
Top Value: Jalen Brunson at Houston Rockets – $7,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Luka Doncic is doubtful due to an ankle injury he suffered in Wednesday’s matchup with Golden State, and Brunson should get a substantial boost in minutes and production tonight. Kristaps Porzingis is also out due to protocols, meaning Brunson could operate as Dallas’ primary option on offense.
Brunson is enjoying a career-best season with averages of 16.0 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.6 rebounds, and he’s posted four double-doubles and six games with at least 25 points.
Brunson gets a huge Opponent Plus/Minus, a massive Pace Differential, a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and a 50-point ceiling on both sites.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $10,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Kyrie Irving’s return certainly didn’t hurt Durant’s production on Wednesday, as he went for 39/8/7 Wednesday against the Pacers. The NBA’s leading scorer obviously has a massive ceiling on any slate, and that’s true in tonight’s marquee matchup with the Bucks.
KD gets a solid Opponent Plus/Minus and plays in a game with the highest over/under on the slate at 228.5. If you’re looking to save a little coin, he’s $700 cheaper on DraftKings with an 83% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Rudy Gay at Toronto Raptors – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Gay is our model’s highest-rated player on the slate, as Utah will be without nearly all of its key players tonight, including Gobert, Conley, Mitchell, Bogdanovic, and Jingles. Hassan Whiteside is questionable due to a concussion, so Gay should see a ton of usage.
In his last game out, he went 18/7/1/1/2, and he’s shown that there’s still some gas left in the tank this season. Gay has a 44-point ceiling on each site and a positive Opponent Plus/Minus.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Brooklyn Nets – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
No surprise here, as Giannis has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate at over 75 on both sites. He sat Wednesday due to an illness, but he’s expected to suit up tonight against fellow Eastern Conference powerhouse Brooklyn.
Giannis averaged 32.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks over his last five games. Without Pat Connaughton, George Hill, Grayson Allen, and Jrue Holiday, Giannis could be relied on as the team’s primary facilitator tonight, boosting his chances at another triple-double. The matchup between Brooklyn and Milwaukee comes in with a 228.5 over/under, the highest on the slate.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale at Toronto Raptors – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Wednesday was O’Neale’s second-best fantasy performance of the season as he went 13/11/5/1/1 against the Nuggets in an expanded role. This was just his second double-double of the season, but O’Neale was able to take advantage of Rudy Gobert’s and Hassan Whiteside’s absences.
Utah will be even more shorthanded tonight, and O’Neale figures to play a major role on both ends of the court. He’s a solid option on both slates, but he’s severely discounted on DraftKings with a 96% Bargain Rating.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Sacramento Kings – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Hot off a 26/21/11 triple-double vs. Utah, Jokic will look to keep it rolling tonight in a very favorable matchup. The 20/20 game was his third of the season and first 20/20/10 triple-double. His three 20-rebound games are tied with Andre Drummond for most in the NBA this season.
Jokic gets a huge Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential against Sacramento’s generous frontcourt defense, making him an even better play than usual. If you’re looking to save a few bucks, he’s $600 cheaper on FanDuel with a 91% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Robert Covington vs. – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Jusuf Nurkic is actually the top value at center, but there’s still a chance he gets slapped with a suspension prior to tonight’s game after his roughhousing with Tyler Herro on Wednesday.
In the event of a suspension, we’ll play it safe with RoCo, who figures to be very busy tonight if Nurk sits. With Larry Nance (knee) out and Cody Zeller (protocols) questionable, Covington would be the last man standing in a very thin frontcourt. He’s averaged just under 20 fantasy points in two games back from protocols, but he was posting some quality lines prior to his absence.
