The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Ja Morant vs. Utah Jazz – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Morant’s announcement as a first-time All-Star and starter couldn’t have come at a more appropriate time, as he’s been electric in his last for appearances. In that span, King Ja has averaged 36.8 points, 8.5 assists, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.3 steals.
He posted a strong 32/7/4/2 line in his only other meeting with Utah this season, and tonight’s matchup has a healthy 226.0 over/under. Morant’s price is now firmly in the five-figure range, but you get what you pay for, making him the top ceiling option at point guard.
Top Value: Jaylen Nowell at Phoenix Suns – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
D’Angelo Russell left early Thursday with a left shin contusion, and he’s a GTD decision tonight on the second of a back-to-back set. Patrick Beverley has missed his last three games due to an ankle injury and is a GTD as well.
Nowell played 29 minutes Thursday and Malik Beasley played just 20, and there’s a good chance that Nowell could slide into the starting five if both Beverley and Russell are forced to sit.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Booker has been lighting up the scoreboard recently, scoring at least 30 points in five of his last seven with two 40-point performances mixed in. In that span, he averaged 32.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 2.6 triples.
Booker posted a monster 43/12 line against Utah on Wednesday, and he had a strong 29/5/5/2 line in his only other meeting with Minnesota this season. Booker has a ceiling of 60+ fantasy points, so he should be considered a value play as well based on the potential return.
Top Value: Zach LaVine at San Antonio Spurs – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
LaVine has shown no signs of rust since returning from his knee injury, averaging 23.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 2.0 triples, and 2.0 stocks over two games in that span while playing more than 35 minutes in each.
Tonight’s matchup with the Spurs has the highest over/under on the slate at 230.5, and LaVine gets a strong Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential while coming in at a very affordable price. He’s a bit more pricey than the usual values, but our model understands just how much of a bargain he is, especially on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at San Antonio Spurs – $8,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
DeRozan will face his former team for the first time since coming to Chicago, so we can expect a little extra juice as he returns to San Antonio. The over/under on this one is 229.5, and DeRozan gets a nice Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus.
DeRozan has averaged 33.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists across his last four games. Just like his teammate LaVine, DeRozan’s price is far too low given his lofty ceiling.
Note: DeRozan is eligible at SF on FanDuel and PF on DraftKings
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Jae Crowder will remain out Friday with a wrist injury, which means Johnson should be in the starting lineup once again. Despite his two recent starts, his price remains locked into the high $4,000 to low $5,000 range.
In his two most recent starts, Johnson averaged 14 points, six rebounds, and two steals across 37 minutes, and he’s enjoyed a lot of success whenever he’s been in the Suns’ starting lineup. To sweeten the deal, tonight’s Suns/Wolves matchup has the highest over/under on the slate at 230.5, making this a friendly game environment.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. New York Knicks – $11,800 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
There’s no explanation needed when Giannis’ name shows up in any of these articles, as the Greek Freak is one of the best options with one of the highest ceilings on any slate.
The matchup with New York offers a substantial pace-down spot but a highly favorable Opponent Plus/Minus. In three prior meetings with New York, Giannis averaged 20.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.0 blocks. He and Nikola Jokic are the only players on this slate with ceilings consistently as high as 75-80 fantasy points.
Top Value: Isaiah Hartenstein at Miami Heat – $3,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Hartenstein isn’t a cash-game consideration by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s a great tournament option who can pay off some big-time value. Over his last two games, I-Hart has averaged 10.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.0 blocks.
His recent production won’t single-handedly win you a contest, but Hartenstein has one of the highest Plus/Minus and Points/Salary projections on the slate. He’s averaged a healthy 1.2 fantasy points per minute on the season and is projected for 17 minutes and 22 fantasy points with a ceiling of 34 tonight. If you’re looking for a dirt-cheap option who can pop off for some huge value, I-Hart is your guy.
Note: Hartenstein is eligible at PF on FanDuel and C on DraftKings.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at New Orleans Pelicans – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
The reigning MVP has shown up to play in recent weeks, averaging 29.3 points, 13.1 rebounds, 10.6 assists, 2.0 triples, and 1.7 steals across his last seven games. In that span, he’s posted four triple-doubles and a 20/20 game.
Jokic went off for a season-high 39 points to go with 11 rebounds and 11 assists in his lone meeting with New Orleans this season, and he’ll look to provide another spectacular showing tonight. Jokic is worth his weight in gold on most DFS slates, but he’s a particularly good value on FanDuel with a 97% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Jalen Smith vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Smith returned to the court for Phoenix on Wednesday and went for eight points, seven rebounds, two blocks, and a steal in 19 minutes. With both Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee already ruled out tonight, expect Smith to see plenty of work off the bench.
Bismack Biyombo is the starter and will put up the most points of the duo, but dollar-for-dollar, Smith is an excellent value who proved just how good he could be earlier in the season when he was in the starting lineup. The game environment is excellent with a fast pace and plenty of implied scoring, while Smith also gets a strong Opponent Plus/Minus.
