The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Houston Rockets – $11,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Curry went off for 39 points, eight dimes, five boards, and a steal Thursday in an OT loss to the Pacers, and he’ll look to keep up that hot play on the second night of a back-to-back Friday against Houston.
Houston offers a solid Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential and is one of the best matchups in the Association for opposing players from a fantasy standpoint. Klay Thompson will be out tonight for rest, so Curry should continue to see heavy usage. He’s an excellent value on FanDuel with a 97% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Cade Cunningham at Utah Jazz – $7,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Cade has strung together two bad games in a row, but he scored more than 30 fantasy points in each of the two games prior. The rookie has a ceiling of over 40 points on both sites, and he’s gone for at least 45 in six games this season.
Cunningham isn’t a guy I’ll be targeting on DraftKings, but his price on FanDuel is just too good not to highlight. At just $5.2K, Cade has a massive 99% Bargain Rating on that site.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Brooklyn Nets – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Murray, Murray, Murray. I feel like I write about him every other day, but it’s certainly understandable. He’s in the midst of a breakout season and is a walking triple-double for any slate.
He posted 23 points, 14 assists, 10 rebounds, and three steals in his last game out against the Thunder and gets another excellent defensive matchup tonight. Murray has a 61-point ceiling on both sites, so he should certainly be on your radar as a high-priced stud to target.
Top Value: John Konchar at Denver Nuggets – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Konchar has averaged 26.3 minutes across his last four games and started Wednesday with Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones out due to protocols.
He’s got a 40-point ceiling on both sites and comes in with a very respectable price tag for a player expected to see north of 30 minutes for a quality offense.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Atlanta Hawks – $9,400 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
The Hawks have been torched by opposing guards this season, and while Butler is technically listed at SF, he’ll likely continue to operate as the team’s primary facilitator with Kyle Lowry out of action.
Butler posted 23 points, 10 assists, two steals, and a block in his last matchup with Atlanta, and he’s now dished at least nine dimes in three of four. The matchup with Atlanta offers Butler a nice pace-up spot and a chance to bounce back after being ejected Wednesday against the Blazers.
Top Value: Kessler Edwards at San Antonio Spurs – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
The rookie has started each of the Nets’ last five games, and he figures to do so again tonight. In that span, Edwards has averaged 10.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.0 stocks, and 1.8 triples across 32.8 minutes.
Tonight’s matchup with San Antonio is a friendly one due to the Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential as well as the 232.5 over/under. Edwards will likely go overlooked playing alongside James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but he’s certainly worth a play on tonight’s slate.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
He’s scored at least 30 points in seven of nine January games and averaged 31.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.1 blocks in that span. That includes six double-doubles and two triple-doubles.
Tonight’s matchup with the Bulls comes in with a friendly 228 over/under, and the Opponent Plus/Minus is highly favorable despite the pace-down spot. Giannis is always a threat to post 70+ fantasy points on any given slate.
Top Value: Precious Achiuwa at Washington Wizards – $4,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Achiuwa is fresh off a dud against the Mavs on Wednesday, but in two games prior, he averaged 10.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 3.0 stocks.
Tonight, he gets a Wizards squad that has been quite generous to opposing bigs. Achiuwa gets a huge Opponent Plus/Minus and a favorable Pace Differential. He’s got one of the highest Plus/Minus of any player on the slate and a 47-point ceiling on both sites.
Note: Achiuwa is available at PF/C on FanDuel and C only on DraftKings.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $12,600 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
Jokic is the only player on the slate with an 80-point ceiling, and that’s for good reason. He posted over 90 fantasy points Wednesday against the Clippers thanks to an unbelievable 49/14/10/3/1 line in the overtime victory.
Playing Jokic is a no-brainer tonight, as he faces a Memphis squad that gives him a huge Pace Differential and respectable Opponent Plus/Minus. Fading Jokic could cost you a cash, so do so at your own risk.
Top Value: Chris Boucher at Washington Wizards – $6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Boucher has really found his footing as of late, and he’s one of our model’s favorite plays on the slate based on his projected Points/Salary.
Boucher gets one of the best matchups for opposing big men in Washington, and our model gives him a ceiling of at least 53 fantasy points on both sites. Over his last five games, Boucher has averaged 15.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.6 stocks.
