The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Toronto Raptors – $9,900 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Ice Trae went off for 43 points, six triples and five assists Thursday as he propelled the Suns to an eighth win in nine games and ended the Suns’ 11-game win streak.
Over his last two games played, Young averaged 39.5 points, 8.5 assists and 5.0 triples, and he posted 25.3 points, 7.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals in seven games on the second of a back-to-back. Young is an affordable option at just $9,900 on DraftKings, but he’s a tremendous value on FanDuel at a ridiculous $8,800. I’m taking full advantage of the savings and will have plenty of exposure on FanDuel.
Top Value: Tre Mann at Portland Trail Blazers – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Mann has started each of the last three games and averaged over 30 minutes per game in that span. In his last game out Wednesday, Mann popped off for a career-best 29 points in 41 minutes of action. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out through at least the All-Star break, Mann should have plenty of opportunities to shine. He’s an excellent value at this price point.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Houston Rockets – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Murray missed Thursday’s contest due to a wrist injury, but he’s got a chance to take the court tonight. If he suits up, Murray will be in a great spot in a game with a 236 over/under, easily the highest on the slate. The matchup with Houston features an incredible Pace Differential and excellent Opponent Plus/Minus.
Murray is enjoying a career season, and he’s been even better as of late with averages of 22.6 points, 11.1 assists, 9.1 rebounds and 2.1 steals across his last seven games. I’m willing to spend up for Murray if he’s available in this smash spot.
Note: Murray is eligible at PG on DraftKings and PG/SG on FanDuel
Top Value: Josh Giddey at Portland Trail Blazers – $7,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Giddey has continued to excel with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of action. Giddey has posted a double-double in each of his last three games and averaged 14.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.0 steals in that span.
Giddey gets a strong Opponent Plus/Minus and small Pace Differential in what should be a favorable matchup. He’s not an incredible play on DraftKings, but he should be a popular play on FanDuel with a 98% Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Detroit Pistons. – $10,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Tatum is an elite play anytime he’s on the slate. He’s averaged 30.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 3.7 threes over the last seven games.
Detroit surrenders the sixth-most points to opponents this season at 111.9, but the team has given up 114.7 over its last three. Tatum will get a quality Pace Differential and strong Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pistons.
Top Value: Cedi Osman at Charlotte Hornets – $5,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Darius Garland is out again tonight, so Osman should start his third straight game. In his last two starts, he averaged 10.0 points, 1.5 rebounds and 6.5 dimes across 36.5 minutes per contest.
Osman isn’t a consistent producer, so he’s best suited for tournaments. He’s a phenomenal value on FanDuel with a 96% Bargain Rating. He gets a big pace-up spot and solid Opponent Plus/Minus against the Hornets, making him a player to target in lineups as a salary-saving option.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Spicy P is averaging 21.1 points this season to go with career-highs in rebounds (8.6), assists (5.2) and steals (1.4) this season, and he’s an elite DFS option who remains dangerously underpriced.
The over/under on tonight’s matchup with the Hawks is decent at 218.5, but the Raptors are favored by just two points, so this should be a close one. Both teams will play on the second of back-to-back sets. Toronto is fresh off an overtime win against Chicago and Atlanta took down Phoenix, so there’s no rest advantage to be had on either side.
Top Value: Thaddeus Young vs. Houston Rockets – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Thadgic Johnson made his first start of the season Thursday and posted a 7/8/3/2 line in 24 minutes. Despite that solid showing, he remains priced at the lowest salary possible on both sites.
Jakob Poeltl and Jock Landale missed Thursday with concussions, and both are GTD tonight. If Young ends up in the starting five again, he’ll have a strong Pace Differential and enormous Opponent Plus/Minus. He should be an extremely chalky option if he starts again.
Editor’s note: Poeltl was not listed on the Spurs’ injury report.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Vucevic at Indiana Pacers – $9,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
At this point, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are bona fide studs worth every penny of their lofty salaries. Of course, our model favors them over all other bigs, so let’s get into the best of the rest: Nikola Vucevic.
Vuc has played in eight games on the second of a back-to-back and averaged 19.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.1 blocks. After crushing with 30/18/4/1/1 last night, he’s primed to do it again. Indy will either start Goga Bitadze or the 6’5 Terry Taylor at center tonight, so this could be another smash.
Top Value: Maxi Kleber vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $4,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Kleber has provided strong play across his last four games, taking advantage of Kristaps Porzingis’ ongoing absence. In that span, the German big man has averaged 10.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 1.3 steals and 1.0 assists while hitting 2.3 triples. Encouragingly, he’s averaged 40.0 fantasy points in two games at home compared to just 22.3 fantasy points in two road games. Dallas is at home tonight, and KP is out. Enough said.
