The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Cleveland – $11,500 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Atlanta will face Cleveland tonight in what will be a slugfest of two sorely depleted teams. Young is one of just a handful of available Hawks, and he’ll be needed to carry the load on offense. In two games since clearing protocols, he’s averaged 27.5 points, 10.0 assists, and 2.0 rebounds.
The All-Star point guard is averaging 27.3 points, 9.3 assists, 3.9 boards, 2.6 triples, and 1.0 steals on the season, with 13 30-point games and 16 double-doubles to his credit. With Ricky Rubio out indefinitely and Darius Garland still in protocols, it will be up to Kevin Pangos to try and contain Young tonight…. good luck.
Top Value: Kevin Pangos vs. Atlanta – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Pangos disappointed in his first career start, going for two points, two rebounds, and six assists over 24 minutes, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back tonight as one of the Cavs’ few remaining healthy players. He’s near the minimum salary on both sites, and playing him should allow you to jam in one or more studs into your lineups. Pangos is strictly a tournament option and isn’t recommended for cash games.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Spida missed the Jazz’s last two games due to a back issue, but he’s off the injury report ahead of Friday’s clash with the T-Wolves. In seven games prior to his absence, Mitchell averaged 28 5.0 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 2.9 triples, and 1.4 steals.
Mike Conley will rest tonight on the first night of Utah’s back-to-back, giving Spida some additional appeal as a playmaker. He’s got positives in Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential against a shorthanded Minnesota team.
Top Value: Cam Reddish at Cleveland – $6,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Playing DFS feels like a war of attrition these days, so we’re going back to the well with one of Atlanta’s only healthy bodies in Cam Reddish.
Over his last five games (all starts), Reddish has averaged 21.8 points, 3.2 boards, 3.2 triples, 2.4 dimes, and 1.8 stocks across 35.0 minutes. Reddish gets a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel but makes a fine value on both sites.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Houston Rockets – $10,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Butler is questionable tonight, but after the Heat’s matchup with the Spurs was postponed Wednesday, he should be rested and ready to go tonight against Houston.
With Miami so shorthanded already, it would make sense for Jimmy Buckets to give it a go in this friendly matchup. He’s averaged 21.0 points, 9.5 boards, 9.5 dimes, and 3.5 stocks over his last two games since clearing protocols, and his ceiling is massive if he indeed plays.
Top Value: Caleb Martin at Houston Rockets – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Since returning from protocols, Martin has averaged 12.5 points, 4.0 rebounds. 2.0 stocks and 1.5 dimes in 29 minutes over his last two games. He started his last game and figures to do so again tonight as Miami is racked with absences.
Martin gets a strong Opponent Plus/Minus and a massive Pace Differential in this highly favorable game environment. Our model loves him as a value option, particularly on DraftKings, where he gets a 97% Bargain Rating.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
Father Time is undefeated, right? Don’t tell that to LeBron James. Over his last six games, the King has been unstoppable, posting incredible averages of 34.8 points, 10.5 boards, 6.5 dimes, 3.2 triples, and 3.2 stocks. In that span, James has topped 61 fantasy points five times while going for 70 twice.
The Lakers are 1-5 in James’ insane stretch, so it’s unlikely he stops carrying this team on his back anytime soon. He’s obviously our top ceiling play and is worth every penny of his bank-busting salary.
Top Value: Serge Ibaka at Toronto Raptors – $3,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
With all of Ivica Zubac, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Nic Batum out tonight, Ibaka should be called on for heavier minutes in Los Angeles’ frontcourt. Ibaka isn’t a guy you’ll want to roll with in cash lineups, but he’s certainly a low-cost option in tournaments, and our model loves him.
Over his last five, the big man has averaged 8.2 points, 5.0 boards, 1.2 dimes, and 1.2 stocks across 16.8 minutes. He logged just nine minutes in the Clippers’ last outing, but our model projects him to play 28 minutes tonight against his former team.
Center
Top Ceiling: Rudy Gobert vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Gobert has found himself in this section plenty of times this season. He’s enjoying one of the best seasons of his career with averages of 15.6 points, 14.9 boards (career-high), and 2.3 blocks while shooting over 70% from the field for the first time in his career.
Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season and will once again be shorthanded in the frontcourt. Gobert gets a positive Opponent Plus/Minus and a solid Pace Differential.
Top Value: Omer Yurtseven at Houston Rockets – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
It’s officially #YurtSZN. Miami’s young center has made the most of his recent increase in playing time, averaging 13.0 points, 14.5 rebounds, 1.5 dimes, and 1.5 swipes over his last two games (both starts).
As one of the only healthy players in the Heat frontcourt, expect Yurtseven to play heavy minutes in a favorable game environment. Miami gets a golden matchup against a Houston defense, allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers on DraftKings and the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers on FanDuel.
