The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Denver Nuggets – $10,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Yes, it’s Trae Young once again! I’m torn between he and Steph Curry, so I’ll mention both and write this section up just a little bit differently. Sure, Trae and Steph both have similar ceilings, but Trae gets the nod here for a couple of reasons.
The matchup between the Nuggets and Hawks is projected for a 222.5 over/under, eight points more than Golden State and Boston. Both players get pace-down spots, but Young’s is just a little better. I’ve talked at length about Young in recent articles, as he’s averaged 30.6 points, 9.4 assists, 4.9 boards, 3.3 triples, 1.2 steals across his last 11 games.
Trae is the preferred play tonight, but it’s close. It’s a slam dunk in his favor on DraftKings, but if you want to roll with Curry on FanDuel, the pricing is ultra-friendly, and Jordan Poole will be out due to health and safety protocols. Curry is $11,300 on DraftKings and just $9,900 on FanDuel.
Top Value: Davion Mitchell vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
The defensive-minded rookie went 13/5/2 with a block across 29 minutes in his first NBA start Thursday against Washington, but he was on a roll even before that.
Over his last 11 games, Mitchell averaged 11.4 points, 3.6 assists, 2.4 rebounds, 1.4 triples across 26.1 minutes. Tonight’s matchup with Memphis has a 225.5 over/under, the second-highest on the slate, and with De’Aaron Fox doubtful due to health and safety protocols, Mitchell should get a boost in minutes and production.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Spida has spun quite a web of productive games as of late. He’s averaged 30.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.1 triples and 1.6 steals across his last seven appearances, including a four-game streak of 30-point games.
San Antonio is a top-10 fantasy matchup for opposing players, and the team ranks seventh in pace. Mitchell gets a positive Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential, while the Spurs/Jazz matchup sports a healthy 225 over/under.
Top Value: Austin Reaves at Minnesota Timberwolves – $3,300 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Reaves had the biggest moment of his young career Wednesday when he hit a game-winning three against Dallas in overtime. He hit 5-of-6 triples in that one, but we’re not chasing just one stellar performance.
The rookie has averaged 11.0 points, 5.3 boards, and 2.3 triples in 28.3 minutes across his last three games, and he’s become a regular part of the Lakers’ rotation. He should hear his number called even more tonight with Russell Westbrook out due to health and safety protocols.
Minnesota has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points and fourth-most threes to opposing SGs this season. For under $4,000, Reaves makes quite a value.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Golden State Warriors – $9,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Tatum went off for a season-high 42 points Monday in the Celtics’ surprise win over the Bucks. He’s turned on the scoring as of late, averaging 31.9 points and 8.9 boards across his last seven games.
Tatum gets the benefits of positive Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential, but he won’t have to square off with Giannis Antetokounmpo in the paint. Giannis is out due to health and safety protocols, making Tatum’s duties as the Celtics’ primary scorer that much easier.
Top Value: Buddy Hield vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
With De’Aaron Fox unlikely to play tonight due to health and safety protocols, Hield should operate as Sacramento’s primary scoring option. On the season, he’s averaging 15.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.5 triples across 28.3 minutes while attempting 13.6 field goals per game. Tyrese Haliburton (back) is questionable, while Terence Davis (protocols) is out tonight as well.
Memphis has been a particularly friendly matchup for SFs, as the Grizzlies have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points and fifth-most threes to the position this season. Hield will be needed for his scoring in a game that sports a 225.5 over/under.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Minnesota Timberwolves – $9,400 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
After a two-game absence, AD returned to go for 20/12/2 over 39 minutes in Wednesday’s OT win against Dallas, and he’s got a strong matchup on tap against Minnesota tonight.
The over/under in this one is 223.5, and the Timberwolves are one-point favorites. That’s likely due to Russell Westbrook, Avery Bradley, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Dwight Howard landing in the NBA’s health and safety protocols. Expect Davis to take on a hefty workload for the shorthanded Lakers.
Top Value: Jaren Jackson Jr. at Sacramento Kings – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
“Play your bigs against Sacramento.” It’s a common mantra for DFS players akin to “play your bigs against Charlotte.” Jusuf Nurkic is highlighted at center for his friendly matchup against the Hornets, so it’s only right that JJJ gets included here against a Kings team that has been a DFS for opponents.
Jackson posted a dud against Portland on Wednesday, but in three games prior, he averaged 24.3 points, 5.3 boards, and 3.0 combined blocks/steals. Our model gives him a 49-point ceiling on DraftKings and a 50-point ceiling on FanDuel due to his valuable skill set as a scorer, blocker, and three-point specialist.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Atlanta Hawks – $12,000 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Seeing the Joker’s name written here shouldn’t be much of a surprise at all, as he’s been on an incredible run as of late. Jokic has produced four triple-doubles over his last six games while averaging 28.0 points, 13.7 boards, 10.7 dimes, and 1.7 steals.
His price is staggeringly high, but if you want the 70-point ceiling, you’ll have to pay the piper. Setting lineups at center tonight revolves around a simple question: Do I pay up for Jokic or pivot to a cheaper option? If you want to pay for a high ceiling and almost equally high floor, Jokic is your man. If you want to pivot, consider Robert Williams or our featured value below…
Top Value: Jusuf Nurkic vs. Charlotte Hornets – $7,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Nurkic was listed as a value Wednesday because of his criminally-low price on FanDuel of just $5,900. Unfortunately, his salary has gone up $600 on FanDuel, but he’s still a great value on both sites.
Nurk has posted a double-double in two straight and three of his last four, and he’s got a ceiling of at least 57 points on FanDuel and DraftKings. Charlotte ranks dead last in defensive rating, third in pace, and has surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Charlotte/Portland has the highest over/under on the slate at 227.5.
