The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $10,200 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
You’d be hard-pressed to find a hotter player in the NBA right now than Trae Young. He’s scored at least 30 points in five straight, averaging 31.6 points, 8.8 assists, 4.8 boards, and 1.0 steals in that span.
Though Steph Curry has a higher ceiling on most nights, he was shut down by Mikal Bridges on Wednesday, and with Golden State facing Phoenix in a marquee rematch, Young gets the nod for this column today. He’s got an 89% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is a particularly good value on that site compared to more expensive options like Curry or Luka Doncic.
Top Value: Cameron Payne at Golden State Warriors – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Payne tied for the team lead in scoring Thursday against the Pistons, taking on an expanded workload with Devin Booker (hamstring) out of action. Booker is out again tonight, and Payne should see plenty of run in the night’s most highly-anticipated matchup.
Payne is projected for 21-25% ownership on DraftKings due to his low salary, though that percentage is far lower on FanDuel at just 5-8%, making him an interesting pivot in tournaments.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $11,500 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel
Harden has taken a backseat to Kevin Durant on offense for much of the season, though he’s still scored at least 34 points in two of his last six games. In that span, Harden has been particularly prolific in other categories as well.
Over his last six, Harden has averaged 23.8 points, 10.3 dimes, 9.3 boards, and 2.3 steals while providing a triple-double for good measure. Don’t expect his hot streak to cool down against Minnesota’s lackluster defense.
Top Value: Landry Shamet at Golden State Warriors – $4,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
With Devin Booker (hamstring) out of action, Shamet stepped into the starting five Thursday and put up 14 points, four triples, three rebounds, and an assist. The Wichita State product logged 31 minutes, his most playing time of the season, and our models project him to play 31 minutes again tonight. It’s not every day you can find a starter with 30+ minutes at such a low salary.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
The NBA’s scoring leader is in a fantastic spot tonight against the Timberwolves, sporting a healthy Opponent Plus/Minus and positive Pace Differential. The Nets/Wolves matchup has a projected over/under of 218.5, the highest on the slate.
Durant posted his best game of the season against the Suns last week, posting a 39/9/7 line with five stocks. He followed that up with a 27/9/5 line against the Knicks, and he’ll look to keep up the elite play against a potentially shorthanded Minnesota squad that hasn’t been too effective on defense this season.
Top Value: Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $3,200 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
With Cam Reddish (wrist), Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle), and De’Andre Hunter (wrist) out Wednesday, TLC entered the starting five and went for eight points, three rebounds, an assist, and a block across 25 minutes. Bogy and Hunter have already been ruled out, and Reddish is questionable tonight. If TLC gets another starting nod, he makes an interesting value play at a bottom-of-the-barrel salary on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Miami Heat – $9,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Sabonis went 22/10/4 against the Hawks in his last game out, but in the contest prior, he erupted for his first triple-double of the season. Sabonis went for 16 points, 25 rebounds, and 10 assists against the hapless Timberwolves, and he’s got another solid matchup tonight.
Miami has been a sound defense against opposing big men all season, but with Bam Adebayo out tonight and Dewayne Dedmon starting in his place, the matchup is a bit more friendly.
Top Value: Naz Reid at Brooklyn Nets – $3,300 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable tonight due to a tailbone injury, and if he’s forced to sit, Reid would likely start in his place. In 15 starts last season, Reid averaged 13.1 points, 6.3 boards, and 2.7 stocks, posting one double-double in that span.
Reid can post the occasional strong scoring night, as evidenced by his 13 points per game in limited minutes across his last three, but where he really excels is as a shot-blocker. Reid ranked ninth in the NBA in block percentage last season, and he’s an efficient specialist in that category. If he’s inserted into the starting five, he’s a great value on FanDuel and a tremendous one on DraftKings.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Atlanta Hawks – $10,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
After returning to the lineup with a 42-point game on 12-of-23 shooting last week, Embiid has now totaled just 29 points on 7-of-33 shooting over his last two contests combined. Fortunately, he’s able to provide plenty of value in other categories.
Over his last two inefficient outings, Embiid has also averaged 15.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 3.5 combined blocks/steals. He’s sure to break out of his shooting slump, and when he does, he should post some massive stat lines. I’ll take the plunge tonight, especially with Tobias Harris (illness) questionable tonight.
Top Value: Dewayne Dedmon at Indiana Pacers – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
When it comes to setting DFS lineups, often opportunity is just as important as pure talent. Our value at center is a perfect example of this tenet. With Bam Adebayo on the shelf indefinitely, Dedmon should remain the Heat’s starting center. He excelled in that role Wednesday, posting an 11-point, 13-rebound double-double which included three assists, two blocks, and a steal across 30 minutes. Fresh off his best game of the season, expect Dedmon to handle a similar workload tonight and provide plenty of value to your lineups.
