In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 9 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Josh Allen (1st)
- Lamar Jackson (2nd)
- Aaron Rodgers (7th), now out (COVID)
- Kyler Murray (8th)
- Daniel Jones (13th)
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-14.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars(48 total)
Another week, another huge spread for the Buffalo Bills. They’re currently favored by over two touchdowns against the Jaguars, as they were last week hosting Miami. All of the Bills’ five wins this season have come by at least 15 points, including two games where the margin of victory exceeded 35.
I bring all of this up because figuring out what to do with Allen when the Bills have hugely positive game scripts is an increasingly crucial question this season. Last year, the Bills were one of the most aggressive passing attacks in the league, even with big leads. (They were tied for the second-most regular-season wins, with 13. Despite that, they passed at the 11th-highest rate). This season is a bit different, with the 5-2 Bills ranking 17th in passing rate.
This has led to some disappointing scores from Allen, including 17 and 21 point FanDuel performances against Miami and Houston, the Bills’ two biggest wins. Allen’s FD scoring is slightly negatively correlated with the Bills’ eventual margin of victory this season. (Very slightly: .03 fantasy points per additional win point).
On the bright side this week, the Jaguars are much tougher against the run (14th in DVOA) than the pass (dead last.) This raises the chances we see a 2020 Bills-style game plan of throwing deep into the fourth quarter regardless of the score. It’s unlikely the Jags offense does much against the Bills’ top-rated defense, so this is the scenario that leads to a big game from Allen.
Either way, Allen is unlikely to fail against the league’s worst pass defense, making him a safe choice for cash games. He leads our FanDuel Cash Game and Tournament Models. He’s the highest projected quarterback on both sites but has an 81% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Lamar Jackson ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (49.5 total)
Jackson is the consensus pick on DraftKings this week, where he leads four of the five models used for this piece, including the Cash Game Model. Jackson narrowly trails Allen in Median Projection on both sites but is a bigger savings ($900) on DraftKings than FanDuel ($700).
The visiting Vikings have the third-best pass defense in the league, but that could be a benefit to a rushing quarterback like Lamar. Only one quarterback has scored more than 22.2 DraftKings points against the Vikings defense this season: Kyler Murray. He scored nine of his 38 points against the Vikings on the ground, despite being a far lesser rusher than Jackson.
With the Ravens extremely thin at running back (our models project Devonta Freeman to lead the team with 5.44 DraftKings points, nobody else over 1.7), their best chance is to rely on Lamar’s rushing this week. The Ravens have a Vegas-implied 27.5 point total, which will have to come from somewhere.
That doesn’t mean Lamar won’t be able to add value with his arm, though. He’s a much-improved passer this season, throwing for almost 70 more yards per game than his previous career-best during his 2019 MVP campaign. Lamar is a home favorite this week, and he’s performed better at home, per our Trends tool:
And as a favorite:
Lamar leads all quarterbacks on DraftKings in Pts/Sal this week, making him a borderline lock for cash games. Be sure to monitor his Ownership Projection later in the week to get a feel for his tournament prospects.
Aaron Rodgers ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (+1) at Kansas City Chiefs (54.5 total)
Note: after this was published, Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 and is out for Week 9.
Besides leading the Tournament Model on DraftKings, Rodgers fits my favorite criteria: quarterback against the Chiefs. Here’s how they’ve done since the start of 2018 (when Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter) with a team total of 25 or better:
Rodgers is the latest beneficiary of that trend, with his Packers implied for 27. The new Bears owner has been very solid in his own right this year, scoring at least 19 DraftKings points in every game except Week 1 and last week against the Cardinals’ No. 2-ranked pass defense while missing all of his top three wideouts.
While his salary hasn’t decreased, this could be a solid buy-low in terms of rostership on Rodgers, who should be getting Davante Adams (among others) back from COVID protocols. We always want to fade recency bias, especially in great matchups like this. This game has the slate’s highest over/under, and the Chiefs rank 30th against the pass.
It does get a little trickier for Rodgers if Davante Adams can’t go. The Packers still threw the ball plenty (37 times) last week without him, but they were primarily short throws. Rodgers is averaging over 7.7 yards per attempt this year with Adams. Without him, that number fell to less than five.
Be sure to follow our news feed for updates about the Packers receiving corps. If Adams in particular, but the Packers receivers in general, are back in action this week, Rodgers is my favorite tournament play on the slate.
Note: after this was published, Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 and is out for Week 9.
Jordan Love ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,000 DraftKings) is now in as the starter for the Packers, who are now 7.5-point underdogs without Rodgers. Love should have the full complement of wideouts available this week, so much of what was written about Rodgers applies to Love here. He now leads the slate in Pts/Sal on DraftKings and is an absolute steal at $4,400. On FanDuel, he trails only Jackson in Pts/Sal.
Kyler Murray ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at San Fransisco 49ers (46.5 total)
Kyler has cooled off considerably from his scorching-hot start to the season. In the first two games, he scored 34 and 35 FanDuel points. His best game since then was 25.76, and he’s averaging a mere 18.2 over the past month.
We have a reason for optimism in Week 9, though. San Francisco forces their opponents to the air, pairing a top-10 rushing defense with the 22nd-rated passing unit. This has resulted in a +1.8 Opponent Plus/Minus Allowed, the second-highest on the slate.
Although as we discussed with Jackson above, that might not be ideal for a running quarterback. But does Kyler really fit that bill anymore? Murray is 11th in rushing yards at the quarterback position and has run for 38 yards the past four weeks combined. With the Cardinals spread-out attack, it’s simply more efficient to throw short passes to the likes of Rondale Moore than it is for Kyler to run.
Which isn’t to say Kyler won’t take off in the right matchup should the situation present itself. Justin Fields ran for over 100 yards against the Niners last week, en route to almost 30 DraftKings points. At this point in their careers, it’s safe to say Kyler is the far better player, as well as having better options to pass to.
If we see anything like Kyler from the good old days of early September, he’s way too cheap on FanDuel. He leads the position in Bargain Rating there, as well as one of our Pro Models.
Daniel Jones ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): New York Giants (+3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (46.5 total)
When I started playing DFS, the prevailing strategy — particularly in cash games — was to roster cheaper quarterbacks. Even a few short years ago, running backs just offered so much more upside that saving money at other positions was correct. (This is when Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson were both priced around $10,000 most weeks). Now, with the proliferation of rushing quarterbacks, and lack of true workhorse running backs, things have changed.
However, every so often, we can still find some underpriced quarterbacks, especially on DraftKings. Jones fits the bill this week, mainly due to his underrated rushing ability. He’s currently fifth among quarterbacks in rushing yards. When you factor in two touchdowns, he’s providing 4.5 points per week with his legs.
The Raiders are a solidly average defense, ranking 15th in overall DVOA. While both teams play on the faster side, we shouldn’t expect an extraordinary performance from Jones this week. But that’s fine because his average performance — eliminating his early exit in Week 5 — is over 20 points per game. At his current salary, that’s more than enough.
The Giants could also get back one or both of Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley this week. During the first four weeks of the season in which both of them were active, Jones averaged almost 25 points per game. He has some sneaky tournament upside here.
Jones leads one of our Pro Models on DraftKings, where he trails only Lamar Jackson in Pts/Sal.
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (48.5 total)
As is the weekly tradition, Mahomes has one of the highest team totals on the slate, trailing only Allen and the Bills. Unlike Allen, the game script projects better for passing, though. Mahomes and the Chiefs are only one-point favorites against the Packers. When the Chiefs are one-point favorites or worse, Mahomes has done his best work:
Green Bay prefers to play slow and control games on the ground generally, but if Mahomes and the Chiefs score early, this game could turn into a shootout quickly. Much like Rodgers, I prefer Mahomes if Davante Adams is active — that would surely boost the Packers pass rate, and thus the tempo of this game.
Update: With Aaron Rodgers ruled out, the game script is slightly worse for Mahomes and the Chiefs passing attack. Green Bay will likely run the ball more than usual as well, slowing the game down. Still, Mahomes can get it done in any matchup, and remains worth considering.
Sleeper of the Week
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-6.5) vs. Houston Texans (45.5 total)
Tua scored at least 25 points in his first two games back from injury before running into the Bills last week. Still, his 16.2 performance was actually one of the better quarterback scores against the league’s best defense. This week he draws a much softer matchup against the Texans.
Devante Parker is finally back in the lineup, so the combination of Parker, Jaylen Waddle, and wide-receiver-masquerading-as-a-tight end Mike Gesicki gives Tua plenty of weapons to throw to. Miami is throwing the ball at the second-highest rate in the league, so expect plenty of volume for Tua this week. Dolphins stacks could easily win some tournaments this week and may not be popular.
