The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Portland Trail Blazers – $11,100 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Doncic fell off a bit in Tuesday’s blowout loss to the Warriors, but he’s in a great spot to bounce back tonight against Portland. In eight prior games to that dud, Doncic averaged 27.4 points, 11.4 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.3 steals while triple-doubling three times.
Doncic has a good Pace Differential and Opponent Plus/Minus in a game that Dallas should dominate. Luka’s price is way back up into the $11k range on both sites, but he’s capable of returning value even at that salary.
Top Value: Cole Anthony vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $6,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Over his last six games, Anthony has averaged just 9.5 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.8 rebounds while shooting just 32.3% from the field. Prior to that, he averaged 19.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 2.6 triples while shooting better than 40% from the floor, so it’s easy to see just how bad he’s slumping right now.
The matchup with LA is a pace-down spot, but this is a strong defensive matchup for Anthony, who gets the benefit of a solid Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s a guy to fade on DraftKings, but he’s a strong play on FanDuel, where he gets a 97% Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden vs. Denver Nuggets – $11,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Fresh off a triple-double on Tuesday, Harden will look to match that feat tonight against Denver. He’s recorded double-digit assists in six of his last eight games and triple-doubled in two of his last three.
Brooklyn gets a pace-down spot, but the defensive matchup isn’t anything to be concerned about. Harden should see a massive workload with both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant unavailable. This is another case of FanDuel pricing a player way too low, so if you want to target Harden, that’s the site to use.
Top Value: Jalen Brunson at Portland Trail Blazers – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Our model loves Brunson tonight for his low price point, big Pace Differential, and solid Opponent Plus/Minus. On the year, Brunson has averaged 29.8 fantasy points, but he’s had one game with at least 50 fantasy points and a handful more with at least 45.
Our model gives him a ceiling of nearly 50 points on both sites for tonight’s slate, and with such a low salary, he should get plenty of exposure in lineups.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. New York Knicks – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Jimmy Buckets has been a true stat-stuffer over his last six games. He’s fresh off a triple-double against the Lakers on Sunday, and he’s posted a trip-dub in two of his last four.
Butler has handed out double-digit assists in three of his last six, and he’s a strong candidate to add to that total tonight while Kyle Lowry remains out due to a personal issue. Butler is one of the lowest-priced studs on the slate, so he should be a chalky option.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson at Utah Jazz – $4,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Jae Crowder is out again with a wrist injury, and Johnson should draw his second straight start against Utah. When these teams faced Monday, Johnson went off for 20 points, six rebounds, three steals, and five triples.
The third-year man is enjoying the best season of his career, and he’s been huge for Phoenix off the bench. In seven starts, he’s provided 18.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.9 triples, and 1.4 steals. In that span of starts, Johnson has topped 30 fantasy points four times and 40 fantasy points once.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Chicago Bulls – $8,900 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Spicy P has been muy picante over his last nine games, taking a big step forward in the assists department. In that span, he’s averaged 23.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.9 steals.
Siakam gets the benefit of a huge Pace Differential and strong Opponent Plus/Minus against Chicago tonight, and he could be in line for another monster game with both Fred VanVleet and Scottie Barnes GTD’s. Just like Jimmy Butler, Siakam is massively undervalued at just $8.9k on both sites,
Top Value: Dean Wade vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $4,200 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel
Wade had a productive outing in the starting five Monday, going for 13 points, five rebounds, and three steals while hitting four triples in place of Lauri Markkanen.
Jarrett Allen could be out again, too due to an illness, so there’s a chance Wade sees plenty of run once again. The matchup with Milwaukee presents a solid Opponent Plus/Minus and a big Pace Differential, while the Cavs/Bucks game has a respectable 218.5 over/under.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Brooklyn Nets – $12,400 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Jokic has delivered some monster performances as of late, turning in 29.8 points, 13.7 rebounds, 11.0 assists, 2.0 triples, and 1.8 steals over his past six games while posting a triple-double in four of them. He certainly looks like the favorite to repeat as league MVP.
The matchup with the Nets gives him a small Pace Differential and a big Opponent Plus/Minus. Our model gives him a projected ceiling of nearly 80 fantasy points, and that’s certainly not an unreasonable benchmark for the Joker.
Top Value: Richaun Holmes at Atlanta Hawks – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Holmes has been quite the fantasy disappointment over the last month and a half. He’s missed 15 games due to an eye injury and protocols, and when available, he hasn’t produced.
Still, he’s a tremendous value on DraftKings given the big games he posted earlier in the season, and paying $4.5k for a center of his caliber is highway robbery. The range of outcomes for Holmes is pretty severe, so he’s not suited for cash games. If you want to draft him in tournaments, however, he could be a sneaky pivot.
