This is going to sound a little crazy, but even the 2-7 Carolina Panthers are still in the running for the NFC South crown. The team they are facing at home on Thursday Night Football, the Atlanta Falcons, is tied for the division lead at 4-5. A win moves the Panthers to within one game of the division leaders, and they benefit from home-field advantage on a short week. Further, they face teams with losing records in six of their next eight games. P.J. Walker and the Panthers will be focused on the task at hand, and we’ve got the wagers to match.
As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
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Falcons vs. Panthers Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
P.J. Walker Over 165.5 Passing Yards
Surprisingly, Panthers head coach Steve Wilks elected to stay with Walker under center instead of deferring to Baker Mayfield after last week’s performance. Walker completed three of ten passes for nine yards, giving way to Mayfield in the second half, who went 14-for-20 for 155 yards and two touchdowns.
Nevertheless, Walker faces a Falcons’ pass defense that allows the most passing yards per game in the NFL. On average, opponents torch Atlanta for 300.0 passing yards per game, but that number has climbed even higher over the Falcons’ recent schedule. Over the last three games, the NFC South co-leaders are allowing 337.7 passing yards per game, highlighting their weak secondary.
Included in that three-game sample was a matchup against this same Panthers squad, in which Walker threw for 317 yards. That was the second time over the last three in which Walker surpassed 175 passing yards and the third time in five games in which he averaged more than 8.0 yards per pass attempt.
According to the ScoreAndOdds projections, taking over 165.5 yards on Walker’s passing yards prop results in an 11% expected value. Moreover, that’s nearly half of what he threw against the Falcons last time out. We’re including it on our SameGame Parlay.
Terrace Marshall Under 38.5 Receiving Yards
Typically we take a correlated approach in our parlay scheme, but we’re dipping into the contrarian waters in Week 10. Although we’re backing Walker to surpass his aerial prop, we are combining that with the under 38.5 yards on Terrace Marshall‘s receiving yards prop.
Marshall has been a secondary, if not tertiary, contributor for Carolina this season. The second-year wideout has appeared in six games for the Panthers this season and has been targeting more than six times just once, with a sub-optimal 56.5% catch rate.
The most significant factor working against Marshall is that he hasn’t developed good chemistry with Walker early this season. Although he collected six targets in Week 9’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, five came in the second half with Mayfield calling the shots. Otherwise, Walker has thrown Marshall’s way 14 times in four games, drawing three or fewer targets in three of those contests.
Marshall has a diminished role with Walker under center. Don’t expect him to make it over his modest receiving yard total against the Falcons.
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
Injuries have hampered Cordarrelle Patterson‘s effectiveness this season, and the Falcons running back has been held to 44 rushing yards or fewer in three of his five starts. Still, the ScoreAndOdds projections reveal a substantive edge on the over on Patterson’s rushing yards prop that is worth playing.
Patterson has the same advantage as Walker, as he takes on one of the worst rush defenses in the league. Carolina allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game, a metric trending down lately. The 139.3 rushing yards per game the Panthers have allowed this year looks worse compared to their three-game sample, in which opponents are going north of 151.0.
That’s a weakness that Patterson will exploit on Thursday night. Patterson’s rushing yards have been inconsistent game-to-game, but his yards per carry remain consistent. The four-time All-Pro has averaged 4.1 or more yards per carry in four of his five outings.
The only time that Patterson has fallen below the 4.1 yards per carry threshold was last time out against the Los Angeles Chargers, his first game in five weeks. That sets up tonight’s NFC South battle as an ideal bounce-back spot for Patterson as he looks to eclipse 51.5 rushing yards.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
This is one of the more significant edges we’ve played on Thursday Night Football. ScoreAndOdds gives our three-leg parlay calculated odds of about +270; however, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering an enticing +813.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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