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Description
(Written the Friday before kickoff)
I think I’ve seen more weather radar .gifs than Kermit-talking-to-his-inner-me memes on Twitter this week, which A) is remarkable and B) means it’s time for a weather-related trend!
At that time of this writing, 12 teams are forecast to be playing in games with below-freezing temperatures. Many of those games are late-season divisional matchups that figure to have low scores.
Speaking of division games: The Plus/Minus values of quarterbacks have historically declined in divisional matchups as the season progresses:
QBs also lose an average of 1.67 FanDuel points from Plus/Minus anytime the game is played in freezing temperatures. In general, late-season divisional games in cold weather should be avoided.
Trends
QB Trend
And that brings us to this week’s QB trend. We’re looking for the opposite of everything above. Consider this the “chicken salad, on rye, untoasted, with a cup of tea” of trends. [Editor’s Note: Hire this man!]
With this trend, we are looking for QBs who are:
• Starting (Proj Pts)
• Expected to return positive value (Projected Plus/Minus)
• Playing in non-division matchups in relatively warm weather
DST Trend
Also, as position players underperform in divisional games with cold weather, it’s possible that — like defenses in games with high winds — the fantasy DSTs in cold division games do well. We should consider these DSTs:
To give this trend more teeth, I added a Hurries/Rush filter and a Favorite/Dog filter because I want DSTs projected to win and able to get to the QB, since that pressure will increase the likelihood of more sacks, turnovers, and maybe even defensive touchdowns.
The sample is tiny, so it’s hard to get too excited about the Plus/Minus and Consistency. Still, it makes sense that these DSTs would perform well. And we should see more matches as we get into the coldest part of the NFL season.
Matches
QB Matches
There are only TWO QB matches this week, which underscores how many teams are playing in colder weather and/or late-season divisional matchups in Week 15.
First, we have Matt Ryan, the highest-rated QB in the Levitan Player Model at the time of this writing. He’s facing the 49ers, who come pre-loaded in the Current Matches section of any trend you create at any position that looks for a fantasy-friendly matchup. Ryan’s projected ownership trails that of only Aaron Rodgers, who’s facing a divisional opponent in what’s expected to be the coldest game of Week 15.
Next, we have Sam Bradford, whose Vikings are home, but of course they play indoors, so we don’t need to worry about the weather. He’s in a decent spot relative to many of the other QBs on the slate, but he’s still Bradford, so we’ll see what happens. Even if he does well for him, that’s not saying much.
DSTs Matches
At DSTs, we have the Packers, who will be playing in the aforementioned zero-degree game in Chicago. Matt Barkley has been successful to this point, but the Packers’ ability to hurry the QB has led to a 12.77 percent Sack Rate and a 3.03 percent Takeaway Rate, both of which are second in the league. This is a challenging spot for Barkley.
The Steelers DST isn’t as accomplished this season at causing disruption, but the Steelers are facing a depleted Bengals offense in a game that has major implications for Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes.
Looking at these teams in a vacuum, the ownership projections seem low: Both are expected to fall below five percent ownership. At the same time, it’s possible that lots of DFS players will look to roster the DSTs facing the 49ers, Jaguars, or Browns, and justifiably so.
Results
(Written Sunday night after games)
QB Results
Despite negative game script — the Falcons scored 21 points in the blink of an eye — Ryan posted a decent 19.34 FD points. He was one of the top plays at QB on a low-scoring day. He ended up besting Rodgers, who posted a -6 FD Plus/Minus.
Bradford did better than Brock Osweiler. That’s where the accolades end.
DST Results
I highlighted above the Packers’ ability to cause disruption, and they did not disappoint, registering three picks, one sack, and a fumble recovery. Despite allowing 30 points, the Packers were one of the better plays at defense, although the game had more scoring (and higher temperatures) than anticipated.
The Steelers posted a middling fantasy score after sleepwalking through the first half against the Bengals.
Results
Taken in the context of the slate as a whole, both Ryan and the Packers DST did very well.
If you’re wondering about the performances of the QBs who played in cold divisional matchups, here are some of the results:
• Marcus Mariota: -9 Plus/Minus
• Andy Dalton: -5 Plus/Minus
• Aaron Rodgers: -7 Plus/Minus
• Ben Roethlisberger: -2.5 Plus/Minus
