As much as I love the Fantasy Labs Player Models, there have been times when I’ve gotten carried away with Fantasy Labs Trends and looked up to see that hours had passed. If you haven’t already become a trends expert yet, I highly recommend getting well acquainted.
Let’s say you’re considering Johnny Cueto in his start at Philadelphia on Tuesday. I was able to find out how well Cueto has recently performed as a favorite on the road against sub-.500 opponents when the weather is between 70 and 80 degrees… all within 60 seconds (actually 50 seconds…I timed it). Now, I think that search creates far too small of a sample size, but the fact that we can find that information in seconds is awesome.
To get you started, we have generously defined 60+ Pro Trends based on their successful track record. They incorporate an assortment of factors ranging from ISO splits to home plate umpires. The top Pro Trend looks at DraftKings pitchers that are priced above $12,000 – the trend comes in with a +/- of 2.92.
2.92 points above an already sterling 21.92 expected point total is exceptional…But why stop there when we have all this data at our disposal?
I expected these splits to favor the home team but not to this extent. Only the best of the best get priced above $12,000 on DraftKings and usually come with the expectation of dominance in any ballpark. Although results are still positive on the road, pitchers in their home stadium are by far the superior play with an average of 27.74 points and +5.74.
If you sometimes shy away from a top-tier pitcher because he is facing a tough opponent, think again. Elite pitchers rise to the occasion and actually perform better against teams that are above .500.
Here we see the Vegas projections for opponents run totals and the corresponding results by $12,000+ pitchers. There’s a noticeable yet expected trend between fewer projected runs and increasingly positive performance. Over the past season, 40% of the $12,000 price tag pitchers have been accompanied by opponent totals of three runs of fewer, which makes it a relatively common occurrence.
These are the results when we fire up a trend for “pitchers priced above $12,000” with additional filters for “home” and “opp vegas runs below 3”. This combination registers at 29.22 points and +7.10. With a substantial count of 50, this will definitely be hard to beat in my future endeavors.
Our initial Pro Trend was definitely worthy of our attention, but these added factors give us a certified blueprint for success.
Now for fun, here’s a look at the pitchers and home plate umpires that crack the list of “Pitchers Priced Above $12,000” most frequently.
