FanShare Sports is widely recognized as the trusted leader in ownership projections across the DFS industry. Reliable and accurate ownership projections are a cornerstone for sustained success in DFS, and will be essential for those looking to take down a guaranteed prize pool tournament for this week’s U.S. Open.
Using FanShare’s ownership projections, in combination with my weekly simulations of the DFS slate, I can identify players that are going both over and under owned by the rest of the field. In order to take down one of these large contests for a life-changing pay day, it will take a combination of fading the over-owned plays, and selecting the correct low-owned plays that will propel your lineup to the top. You want to be scoring points in places that others are not.
Let’s get to the players that are standing out on both ends of the ownership spectrum compared to my simulations.
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OVER-OWNED FADES
Garrick Higgo: FanShare Projected Ownership 7.8%, simulation score 3.2%
Congratulations to Garrick Higgo on his first PGA tour win last week in just his second career start. That is quite the achievement for the 22-year-old South African, who has been on a tear of late. Before people get upset, I want to make it clear that I don’t mind the Higgo play in a vacuum. The kid is a tremendous talent who will go on to win multiple PGA tour events in his career, and may very well end up doing well this week. However, I mentioned earlier that fading over owned players is essential to taking down a large field GPP. Coming in at a projected ownership of 7.8%, he makes a great fade candidate at his price.
My simulation of the slate shows Higgo landing in the optimal lineup just over 3% of the time. This is due to the strength of the surrounding players at his price point, and his lack of major experience. With seasoned vets the likes of Charley Hoffman, Stewart Cink, Kevin Streelman, and Ryan Palmer all within $100 of his Draftkings salary, it’s going to be tough for Higgo to crack the optimal lineup. I’d much rather take a shot on those players at a fraction of the ownership than eat the higher ownership on a kid coming off his first win, playing in his first career U.S. Open.
Bryson DeChambeau: FanShare Projected Ownership 16.19%, simulation score 10.4%
Bryson is a popular pick to win the U.S. Open this week, and for good reason. He hits it a mile, has a good short game, and has shown he has what it takes to win a major championship. However, the PGA has clearly made an effort in the set up of this golf course to punish those who miss the fairway. The videos surfacing of the rough at Torrey Pines back up this claim, it’s going to require consistent accuracy off the tee to win here. Over the last 24 rounds, Bryson ranks 141st in this field in Fairways hit. That sort of in consistency off the tee has already taken it’s toll in recent weeks, with only one top 10 finish since the middle of March.
While I do have my concerns with how he fits this set up at Torrey Pines (which I outlined above), I would not be surprised in the least if he is the player hoisting the Claret Jug come Sunday evening. What I am attempting to do in this article is point out players that I believe are going over owned by our competition. With a FanShare projected ownership of 16.19%, and a simulation score of 10.4%, we are getting nearly 6% of edge on the field if this event were played out thousands of times. Of course anything can happen in a single run of this event, but by making this fade in this spot you would be profitable in the long run. I’ll be looking elsewhere at the top of the board this week.
UNDER-OWNED PLAYS
Stewart Cink: FanShare Projected Ownership 2.04%, simulation score 11.1%
Cink seems to be one of those guys that goes overlooked every week. Maybe it’s the perception that he’s old and can’t compete with the young guns, or that he is simply past his prime. However, the numbers tell a different story. All he has done over his last six events is gain nearly 30 strokes on approach, finish in the top 20 three times, and win the RBC Heritage. He may be 48 years old, but the man can still play.
With a FanShare projected Ownership of only 2.04%, and a simulation score of 11.1%, we are gaining over 9% leverage on the field. This is an excellent opportunity to jump on the eight-time PGA Tour winner, who finished 12th in his last major start this past April at the Masters. He definitely has enough firepower to crack the optimal lineup this week, and makes for a perfect pivot off Garrick Higgo who I discussed in the fades section above.
Scottie Scheffler: FanShare Projected Ownership 9.59%, simulation score 13.1%
Scheffler is a player that is going to break through for his first career win very soon. His ability to hit the ball both long and straight off the tee, and rack up birdies in bunches puts him in the conversation for one of the best players on tour without a win.
While he may not win the U.S. Open this week (though I did bet him at 45-1), I love his chances of paying off his $8500 price tag on DraftKings.
Scottie leads the PGA Tour in total driving. Total driving is the combination of a player’s rank in driving distance and driving accuracy. On a course that will play over 7,600 yards, with thick rough looming off any missed fairway, the ability to hit it long and straight will give him an excellent advantage. I believe Scheffler is going overlooked this week considering the FanShare Projected Ownership of 9.59%. At his price, I would’ve expected him to be closer to 15% coming off his third-place finish at the Memorial a couple weeks back. I plan to take full advantage here, and fire up Scottie in a ton of lineups this week.
Did you know FantasyLabs offers access to FanShare Sports’ Buzz Score, Sentiment Rating, and Projected Ownership% metrics each week? To gain access, purchase the FanShare Sports golf package through the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
