Quite a number of factors get pulled into the conversation when choosing a daily fantasy lineup. We tend to focus on things such as handedness matchups, splits and park factors, to name a few. However, an overlooked aspect of DFS happens to stem from perhaps the most basic premise of batting: hitting the pitch that’s delivered.
Thanks to advanced metrics around the web, we can find out what hitters feast on certain pitch types and use it pinpoint matchups that might coast through under the radar. I’ll use the space that follows to identify the best hitters according to Pitch Type Linear Weights and dive into a few matchups to target in the coming days. For those new to the stat, an example of a Pitch Type Linear Weight would be “wFB/C” which indicates average runs produced per 100 fastballs faced.
FASTBALL HITTERS:
- Kris Bryant (2.61 wFB/C)
Matchups to exploit: None
Analysis: Bryant is still new to the major leagues but has made his presence felt in a big way – especially against fastballs. Unfortunately for the Cubs, they will miss Ian Kennedy (62.6% FB) when the Padres come to town. Bryant should be in consideration every day regardless of his matchup.
- Nelson Cruz (2.4 wFB/C)
Matchups to exploit: Wei-Yin Chen (5/20), Chris Tillman (5/21)
Analysis: Cruz has seemingly crushed everything that’s been offered at him since the beginning of last season, but he has had notable success versus fastballs. Tomorrow night’s showdown with Wei-Yin Chen (65.6% FB) might be the early favorite for matchup of the year. Consider that Camden Yards has produced some of the most hitter-friendly park factors in 2015 and combine that with Cruz’s outrageous LHP splits and you’ve got yourself DFS gold.
- Paul Goldschmidt (2.36 wFB/C)
Matchups to exploit: None
Analysis: Goldy misses a date with fastball-happy Henderson Alvarez by one game. You can feel good about slotting him in on Friday anyway in a matchup against John Lester. Goldschmidt has a homer in his three career ABs vs Lester and has been on the mark against LHP all season.
SLIDER HITTERS:
- Mike Trout (2.79 wSL/C)
Matchups to exploit: Drew Hutchison (5/20), Wade Miley (5/24)
Analysis: The slider is the preferred off-speed pitch of Hutchison (22.4% SL) and Miley (24.8% SL) but they’ll be hard-pressed to sneak it by the defending MVP. The setting is also working in Trout’s favor as he enjoys a trip away from spacious Angel Stadium to find himself in two very generous hitter’s ballparks.
- Hanley Ramirez (2.29 wSL/C)
Matchups to exploit: Garrett Richards (5/22)
Analysis: Considering Richards changes between an average FB at 96 MPH and a wicked slider that comes in 10 MPH slower, this isn’t a perfect matchup. But if there is a man up to the task it’s Hanley who went 2-3 on Tuesday against fellow slider extraordinaire, Yovani Gallardo. The tough assignment might drive down his price tag and make him a nice value play.
- Ben Revere (2.24 wSL/C)
Matchups to exploit: None
Analysis: Revere is definitely the sneakiest name on this list but unfortunately there are no matchups to exploit on the horizon. Sitting atop the Phillies lineup and always a threat to swipe a bag, we now have a little more insight as to when we should pencil Revere into our lineups.
CURVEBALL HITTERS:
- Hanley Ramirez (5.51 wCB/C)
Matchups to exploit: None
Analysis: It’s now apparent that Hanley devours off-speed pitches. Boston travels to Los Angeles to take on the Angels this weekend but will miss a matchup with the soft-tossing, curveball specialist (?) Jered Weaver.
- Alex Rodriguez (4.37 wCB/C)
Matchups to exploit: Yovani Gallardo (5/24)
Analysis: According to the metrics, A-Rod has always been an above average curveball hitter. A-Rod can hardly walk out his front door without making headlines but somehow he’s quietly been a top-10 DFS third baseman. Gallardo likes to throw his below-average curveball which could lead to an A-Bomb and a big day for A-Rod.
- Jose Altuve (4.34 wCB/C)
Matchups to exploit: None
Analysis: Altuve went up against curveball artist Sonny Gray on Tuesday and delivered yet another multi-hit game. My daily 2B selection usually lasts the duration of however long it takes me to find Altuve’s name near the top of the list. Get him in your lineups folks.
CHANGE-UP HITTERS:
- Justin Upton (6.33 wCH/C)
Matchups to exploit: None
Analysis: Upton won’t get to put his impressive stat line to the test against any changeup specialists this week. Nonetheless he is killing the ball out on the west coast this season and deserves lineup consideration on a daily basis.
- Mike Trout (5.39 wCH/C)
Matchups to exploit: Drew Hutchison (5/20)
Analysis: Poor Drew Hutchison might as well call in sick rather than face Trout tomorrow. He doesn’t throw his change very often (14%) but when he does it’s among the league’s worst (-2.18 value). A steady diet of fastballs likely won’t even save him from his doomed fate.
- Giancarlo Stanton (4.94 wCH/C)
Matchups to exploit: None
Analysis: The old saying goes “the harder it comes in, the harder it goes out” but that doesn’t apply to Stanton who will hammer anything including changeups. No dream matchups to speak of for this week but Stanton is in the midst of a home run tear as he makes up for his slow start.
