Some things in life are complex and others can be explained simply. Fantasy football and DFS are really no different at times, until they are. Relatively speaking, football and the NFL is a small-sample sport (16 games, at most) and there tends to be some noise in various sectors of analysis and false indicators of success.
Of course, it is tough to parse through data in such small samples. But what about when you have a running back — a rookie – burst on to the scene with four-straight games of 100-plus yards rushing, a game of 89 yards, only to be followed by rushing for less than 50 yards in three of his next four?
The Context of Bad Quarterbacks, Picking Favorites, and Offensive Leverage
In Weeks 4 through 9, Todd Gurley was absolutely shredding opponents. He ran for 655 yards in five games on 112 carries (5.85 yards per carry) plus three touchdowns and generally looked like the next form of an Adrian Peterson-esque defense-shredder. Not surprisingly, everyone (myself included) heralded Gurley as one of the best backs in football and someone you absolutely needed to roster or have some exposure to on a weekly basis.
However, since Week 9 (in Weeks 10 through 13), Gurley has just 171 yards rushing on 55 carries (3.11 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. In just a month, he has gone from a weekly savior at the position to someone who makes your stomach drop when you start/roster them. So, how can this happen?
There is some common analysis that is some version of the following: “Todd Gurley hasn’t been producing because the offense around him isn’t good and they can’t throw the ball.” That isn’t untrue. Nick Foles is averaging 186.5 passing yards and 0.64 passing touchdowns per-game, which – and this is needless to say – is pretty abysmal in today’s NFL.
But, just follow me down this road over the next few paragraphs for a moment: when Gurley was carving up defenses in Weeks 4 through 9, Nick Foles averaged 166.8 passing yards per-game, was completing 55.6% of his passes and had a 5:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In Weeks 10, 12, and 13 (he was benched for Case Keenum in Week 11) Foles averaged 191.3 yards per-game and completed 53% of his passes.
Clearly – and this is an understatement – Nick Foles is not a starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s thrown five interceptions (three came in one game) with zero touchdowns in his past three starts and he’s a major source of the problem that just got their offensive coordinator fired.
Still, though – Foles wasn’t great by any stretch of the imagination when Gurley was playing out of his mind. So, there has to be another link missing beyond Foles’ shoddy play and an offensive line that ranks 23rd (as of Week 13) in Run Blocking per Football Outsiders.
In Weeks 4 through 9, when Gurley ran for 112-655-3 (5.85 YPC), the Rams trailed on 45.9% of their offensive snaps; while, in Weeks 10 through 13 they were behind on 66.5% of snaps.
Generally speaking, when Vegas favors a running backs’ team they perform +1.37 points above expectation. That number dips by 31.3% when a team is the underdog (+0.94 points above expectation), per Fantasy Labs’ Trends tool.
So, is there an answer? Will Gurley be usable anytime soon? Well, Gurley’s sledding certainly gets tougher in Weeks 14 through 17 – the Rams face the Lions (allowing +0.3 points above expectation to opposing running backs), the Buccaneers (-0.4), Seahawks (-0.7), and the 49ers (+1.1) in Week 17. Coming into Week 13, the Lions ranked 14th in Football Outsiders’ Rush Defense DVOA while the Bucs and Seahawks had marks of 2nd and 11th, respectively.
Ranking Gurley’s list of problems at this point doesn’t really matter. His starting quarterback options are among the league-worst, his offensive line is below average, and the Rams haven’t had enough offensive leverage (they have been trailing a ton) to feed Gurley incessantly. If Gurley can somehow overcome those three massive knocks against him over the league’s final month and become moderately usable again, that will be a massive feat in and of itself.
