The Euro Breakdown provides event history and examines all the relevant data to assist you in analyzing the oftentimes unfamiliar events of the European Tour.
What You Need To Know
The European Tour comes back to Golf Resort Bad Griesbach in Germany for the 34th playing of the Porsche European Open. In 2015, the event rejoined the schedule after a six-year break. This year’s tournament will be played on the Beckenbauer Course, named after Germany’s World Cup winning soccer player, Franz Beckenbauer.
Let’s get to the easy part first. Last week, Italian Francesco Molinari captured the Italian Open. Two weeks ago, the Netherlands’ own Joost Luiten took down the KLM Open in the Netherlands. This week, the Porsche European Open is being played in Germany, on a course co-designed by German legend Bernard Langer. So fire up Martin Kaymer. Not only is he the top-ranked player in Colin Davy’s Player Model, but he’s also virtually guaranteed to win by the laws of molecular physics and genealogy.
Course and History
Last year, Thongchai Jaidee won the event at 17-under par becoming the oldest player (he was nearly 46 at the time) to win the European Open. He edged out Graeme Storm, who made a serious charge on Sunday but got wet off the tee on 17, allowing Jaidee to win by one stroke.
Some huge players, including Langer, Greg Norman, Nick Faldo, Retief Goosen, and Lee Westwood, have all hoisted this coveted trophy.
The tournament has been played at several different courses but last year’s event was hosted here. The course is flat with wide fairways with water coming into play on several holes.
Among the 23 golfers who finished T19 or better last year, 12 finished the week ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Distance (DD), and seven inside the top 10, including four of the top-eight finishers. We’re looking for bombers this week.
Nine of those 23 golfers also finished the week inside the top 10 for Greens in Regulation (GIR) so we will examine that metric as well.
Driving Distance
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
Thomas Pieters, who had to pull out of the KLM two weeks ago after an allergic reaction to a bee sting, will take this opportunity to fine-tune his skills one last time before his Ryder Cup debut. Pieters’ 301.7-yard Long-Term (LT) DD is 10th overall and second among the high-priced tier.
Per our Trends tool, golfers priced above $9,000 with comparable DDs have manufactured a +4.20 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 63.9 percent Consistency.
His 70.7 LT Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) is tied for 11th in the field, and his Recent Adj Rd Score of 67.7 leads the field by a half stroke. In the last three tournaments he’s played (including the Olympics) he’s won and finished second and fourth while averaging 22 Adj Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg).
Pieters is in amazing form and should contend for another victory here if he stays away from honeypots during his pregame meals.
Also in the high-priced tier and driving the ball slightly farther than Pieters is Scott Hend, whose 301.8-yard LT DD ranks ninth. Hend is also in great form, posting a 68.8 Recent Adj Rd Score, which ranks him fourth in this field.
Hend led both the recent KLM Open and European Masters after 54 holes and finished fourth and second. He missed the cut at last week’s Italian Open, but this course sets up well for his game. Hend finished fourth here last year.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 to $8,900
Lucas Bjerregaard isn’t afraid to drop bombs off the tee, as evidenced by his 304.6-yard LT DD, which ranks fifth overall. He misses a decent number of cuts (three of his last eight) but his form has been improving steadily over the past month.
Bjerregarrd’s 70.2 percent LT GIR is eighth, and he finished fifth at this course last year. He’s an elite play this week in guaranteed prize pools.
One of the reasons I consider Bjerregaard an elite GPP play is that the majority of DFS players spending in this price range will likely choose to pay the extra $100 to roster the Belgian Bomber, Nicolas Colsaerts, who is a frequent member of The Euro Breakdown.
Colsaerts ranks fourth overall in LT DD at 306.8 yards. He has finished 24th in the last two tournaments he’s played, and he averaged 83.25 DK points while doing it. Colsaerts’ 69.9 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 16th in the field.
Golfers with comparable LT DD and Recent Adj Rd Scores have provided a reliably solid return on investment.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
We can’t talk about DD in the value tier without mentioning Sebastien Gros, who leads the field with a massive 315.9-yard LT DD.
Gros is wildly erratic, and a quick glimpse of his game logs shows that he’s missed more cuts (five of eight) than he’s made recently. Gros has flashed some upside with a top-10 finish at the Irish Open, but he’s purely a GPP play in the scrubs portion of a stars-and-scrubs roster.
I’ve talked about Tom Lewis before, and his 11th-best 301.3-yard LT DD looks juicy again this week. Lewis missed the cut both at this event last year and in his last start at the KLM Open.
Prior to that tournament, however, Lewis had made five-straight cuts with one top-10 finish and only one finish worse than 27th. His Recent GIR percentage is 74.6, the 12th-best mark in the field.
Players in this salary range with similar LT DD and Recent GIR have generated a +4.27 Plus/Minus on DK.
Greens In Regulation
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
Austria’s Bernd Weisberger ranks ninth with a 70.1 LT GIR percentage. He’s not the longest hitter, but his 294.3-yard LT DD is in the top 40 this week. Weisberger finished T7 at Gut Larchenhof in Germany earlier this season.
Weisberger’s one of the best all-around golfers in the field, as his second-best 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score demonstrates. He finished second at the KLM Open two weeks ago, and his 69 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks him fifth overall. He may go overlooked with people choosing to spend up to grab Pieters or Kaymer. If that’s the case, he’s an elite GPP play.
The aforementioned Kaymer’s 77.8 percent Recent GIR is tied for sixth, his 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score is first in the field, and his 68.7 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks third. He’s on an absolute tear with five finishes of seventh or better in his last eight starts.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 to $8,900
Richard Bland ranks fifth in the field at 70.8 percent LT GIR. His 17 Recent Adj Bird Avg is tied for seventh, and his 69.5 Recent Adj Rd Score is 10th. Bland has ripped off five straight finishes of 27th or better in cut events, and he finished fifth both last week and three weeks ago at the European Masters. My man is knocking on the door — and if one knocks long enough he eventually gets invited to dine at the table of champions.
Golfers in this salary range with comparable LT GIR and Recent metrics have provided a +3.45 Plus/Minus with 62.2 percent Consistency. Bland finished ninth at this track last year.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
Scotland’s David Drysdale has the third-best LT GIR in the field at 71.7 percent. His 70.1 percent LT Driving Accuracy (DA) also ranks third. Although we are focused on the long bombers this week, last year’s runner-up (Storm) did lead the field in both GIR and DA for the week.
Drysdale missed the cut in his last event, but prior to that he had made four straight cuts with two finishes inside the top 13. He makes for an intriguing member of a stars-and-scrubs lineup this week.
Good luck!
