The Euro Breakdown provides event history and examines all the relevant data to assist you in analyzing the oftentimes unfamiliar events of the European Tour.
What You Need To Know
This week, the European Tour returns to Golf Club Milano in Parco Reale di Monza for the 73rd Italian Open. This will be the eighth time (and second year in a row) that the event is held at this course. If it’s course history you desire, you can put some stock into last year’s play.
Several well known players have won this prestigious event, including Bernhard Langer (1983 and 1997), Greg Norman (1988), and Graeme McDowell (2004).
Last year, Rikard Karlberg claimed his first Euro Tour win by defeating Martin Kaymer in a playoff. If Karlberg can win again, he would be the first player since 1972 to defend the Italian Open title successfully.
Choosing players who can rack up birdies is a prudent strategy this week (and every week), since five of the last 10 winners have been at 20-under par or better.
Although the course features tree-lined, narrow fairways, missing them hasn’t been an issue. Karlberg ranked 63rd in the field for Driving Accuracy (DA) last year, hitting fewer than 40 percent of the fairways. The two golfers who tied for third place last year hit just over 41 percent.
Scrambling (SC) and Greens in Regulation (GIR) will be or focus this week.
The Field
Local favorite Francesco Molinari won this event in 2006. He’s played extremely well in this event, no matter where it’s been played, with eight top-10 finishes in his last nine Italian Opens.
Matteo Manassero is another Italian looking to make the home fans happy. He finished 25th in the event as an amateur in 2009 and made his pro debut a year later, becoming the youngest professional (17 years and 18 days) to make a cut in a Euro Tour event. Manassero has two top-10 finishes in his eight appearances at the Italian Open.
Nearly the entire European Ryder Cup team will be playing in the event, so the field is quite star-studded. Former Major champions Padraig Harrington and Y.E. Yang will also play, along with Byeong-Hun An, who finished third at last weeks KLM Open.
Last week’s winner, Joost Luiten, will attempt the back-to-back jack.
Scrambling
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
England’s Tyreell Hatton ranks seventh overall with a 58.4 Long-Term (LT) SC percentage. His 70.0 LT Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) is 11th, and he has the 10th-highest LT Adj Birdies Per Tournament Average (Adj Bird Avg) at 13.1.
Per our Trends tool, golfers with comparable LT metrics in this salary range have previously produced a +1.12 Plus/Minus with 56.0 percent Consistency.
Hatton has missed two straight cuts, which could keep his ownership in tournaments lower this week.
Masters Champion Danny Willett is back in Italy after finishing third at this course last year. Willett’s 56.2 percent LT SC is 16th, and his 69.0 percent LT GIR ranks 21st. His 69.2 LT Adj Rd Score leads the entire field.
Willett, who finished 12th at the European Masters in his last start, appears to be rounding back into form after a mid-season lull. He has tournament-winning upside.
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 to $8,900
Bradley Dredge leads the field with a 62.1 LT SC percentage. He ranks second in LT Putts Per Round (PPR) at 28.8, and his 70.2 LT Adj Rd Score is good enough for 13th in this field.
Golfers in this salary tier with similar LT metrics have generally generated a chunky +5.28 Plus/Minus with 59.1 percent Consistency.
Thongchai Jaidee has the second-best LT SC in the field at 59.9 percent. Jaidee won the Open de France in July and finished 22nd and 29th at The Open Championship and the European Masters.
Jaidee is in great form: His 69.4 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks 17th and his Recent Adj Bird Avg of 19 is sixth. He makes a great play this week and could potentially fly under the radar with all the big names in this tournament.
Speaking of big names: Chris Wood is $7,800, and that is too cheap. His 59.2 LT SC is fourth overall, and his 69.9 LT Adj Rd Score is eighth.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
David Howell owns the third-best LT SC percentage in the field at 59.6. His LT Adj Rd Score of 70.6 is less impressive but still ranks him in the top 20. More impressive is his 15th-overall Recent Adj Rd Score of 69.3 and his field-leading 74.6 Recent SC percentage.
Howell has made the weekend in his last four cut-events and finished third at the Czech Masters. He finished 25th at this tournament last year and makes a great play in all formats.
Golfers with similar Recent metrics in this value tier have manufactured a +2.43 Plus/Minus with 55.3 percent Consistency.
Greens in Regulation
High-Priced Tier: $9,000 and Higher
As is often the case, Rafael Cabrerra-Bello leads the high-priced tier and is second in the field with a whopping 77.8 percent LT GIR. His Recent GIR percentage has climbed to 79.2 — best in the field.
His 69.7 LT Adj Rd Score is fifth overall and his 13.4 LT Adj Bird Avg is ninth.
Cabrera-Bello hasn’t missed a cut since May and finished in fifth-place at the Wyndham Championship in his last start. His 68.1 Recent Adj Rd Score is top of the field.
Martin Kaymer is also crushing Recent GIR at an incredible rate of 77.8 percent, fourth overall.
As stated previously, Kaymer lost in a playoff here last year and is in amazing form, with finishes of seventh or better in five of his last eight cut-events. Including the Olympics, Kaymer has finished 15th or better in seven of nine tournaments.
He has been an absolute Plus/Minus beast in his last 10 events:
Mid-Priced Tier: $7,000 to $8,900
Nicolas Colsaerts owns the third-best LT GIR in the field at 72.6 percent. He doesn’t scramble well, as evidenced by his 44.4 percent LT SC mark, but that deficiency didn’t hurt him here last year, when he finished 20th.
Colsaerts drops bombs off the tee with the best of them: His 306.5-yard LT Driving Distance is fifth overall. He is also recently draining birdies with the best of them, with a Recent Adj Bird Avg of 20 over his last two tournaments.
Colsaerts will miss the occasional cut, but he has also finished third three times this season. Fire him up with confidence in guaranteed prize pools.
Value Tier: $6,900 and Lower
Benjamin Hebert always seems to sneak into these Euro Breakdowns, and I like him again this week.
His 70.9 LT GIR percentage ranks ninth overall, and his Recent GIR of 78.5 percent is third. Hebert has a top-20 Recent Adj Rd Score and has run up a 16 Recent Adj Bird Avg in his three most-recent tournaments. He finished 25th here last season.
Good luck this week.
