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Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s European Tour DFS slate.
Long-Term Metrics
This tournament is no joke. The past three winners of the Scottish Open have been Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, and Phil Mickelson. The event always attracts a good number of stars from the United States and Europe looking to fine tune their games in preparation for the Open Championship.
For a more comprehensive look at the tournament history and field, be sure to check out the Euro Breakdown on Wednesday.
Adjusted Round Score: 68.2, Henrik Stenson
It didn’t take long for Stenson to shake off those “minor neck and knee issues” that forced him to withdraw from the US Open. He went out the very next week and won the BMW International Open. Stenson’s Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) is nearly a full stroke better than anybody else’s in the field. Stenson also has the best LT Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage at a very impressive 74.7 percent, and is fifth overall in LT Driving Accuracy at 70 percent. What’s more, Stenson has the highest LT Birdie Average in the field at 16.3 per tournament and he’s played very well on this course, with third- and eighth-place finishes in his last two starts.
Long-Term Score Average, Long-Term Greens in Regulation, Plus/Minus, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Greens in Regulation: 73.7%, Rafael Cabrera-Bello
We already established above that it’s Stenson who leads the field in LT GIR, but not far behind is Cabrera-Bello at 73.7 percent, a frequent visitor to the Euro Data Dive. Rafa held his own in a stacked field last week at the 100th Open de France, finishing fourth. Cabrera-Bello’s 70.1 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for eighth-best in the field and his Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.8 is tied for 11th-best. Golfers like Cabrera-Bello, who rank in the top 75 percent for LT GIR and both LT and Recent Adj Rd Scores, have historically accounted for a +1.38 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Putts Per Round: 28.0, Steve Stricker
It’s not only Stricker’s 28.0 Long-Term Putts Per Round (PPR) that leads the field this week, but his 65.5 percent Long-Term Scrambling rate is first, too. Stricker’s execution on and around the greens is paying dividends: His 69.6 LT Adj Rd Score is fifth-best in the field, and his 68.4 Recent Adj Rd Score is seventh-best. Players with comparable LT data have yielded a +3.41 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 57.6 percent Consistency.
Scrambling: 64.5%, Colin Montgomerie
Old Monty’s LT Scrambling percentage is actually second-best in the field to the aforementioned Stricker. But take notice that Montgomerie’s Recent Scrambling mark of 45.2 percent is horrific and nearly 20 points worse than his LT mark. Montgomerie won the Scottish Open in 1999 when the event was played on a different course. He missed the cut at Castle Stuart Golf Links, this year’s host course, in 2012 and finished 31st in 2011. Montgomerie’s LT Driving Accuracy of 71.6 percent is second-best in the field, making him a bit of a mixed bag this week.
Course Adjusted Round Score: 68.6, Luke Donald
Course Adjusted Round Score is the average adjusted strokes per round on a specific course with adjustments made to account for the difficulty of the course and the strength of the field. Donald won the Scottish Open here at Castle Stuart in 2011 and finished 16th in 2012. Donald’s 69.7 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth-best in the field, so it’s not just at this course where he plays well. His 62.9 percent LT Scrambling mark is third-best in the field. Players who have previously combined excellent long-term form and course history have produced a +2.85 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Recent Metrics
Thongchai Jaidee cruised to victory at the Open de France last week, his eighth European Tour victory. He bested Francesco Molinari by four shots and Rory McIlroy by five. There are 12 players in the field priced higher than Jaidee this week.
Here are some golfers with excellent recent statistics.
Adjusted Round Score: 66.3, Branden Grace
The previously-highlighted Stenson leads this metric with a stellar 66.1 Recent Adj Rd Score, but Grace is right there with him. Grace finished at 17 under par and in second place in the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart in 2013, losing in a playoff. Grace’s 69.0 LT Adj Rd Score is second to only Stenson, as are his odds to win this tournament. His 69.0 percent LT Scrambling mark is sixth-best in the field.
Greens in Regulation: 77.3%, Joost Luiten
Guess what? Stenson leads this metric as well, with an absolutely-freakish 82.4 percent Recent GIR. Luiten’s 77.3 percent is also quite impressive, as is his 69.0 Recent Adj Rd Score, 12th-best in the field. Luiten has finished 16th and sixth in his last two starts on the Euro Tour, but his only start at this course in 2011 ended with a missed cut. Luiten’s 17.7 Recent Birdie Average is second-best in this field and his 13.9 LT Birdie Average is eighth-best. Players who have combined Recent GIR with Birdie Averages similar to Luiten have amassed an impressive +7.33 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 60 percent Consistency.
Driving Accuracy: 76.2%, Soren Kjeldsen
I promise I’m not lying: Stenson leads this metric at 77.6 percent LT Driving Accuracy. However, Kjeldsen’s mark is nearly four percentage points clear of his nearest competitor. Hitting the ball straight off the tee has worked well for Kjeldsen, as evidenced by his 69.6 Recent Adj Rd Score. He’s played well at this course too: His 70.1 Course Adj Rd Score is fifth-best among golfers who have made at least three starts at Castle Stuart. Previous players combining similar Recent Accuracy and Adj Rd Scores have recorded a +4.26 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Birdies Per Tournament: 19.0, Mikko Korhonen
I typed a bunch of words about Korhonen’s relative awesomeness last week and he promptly went out and missed the cut at some ridiculously-large number over par. Time to run and hide? No . . . time to capitalize on recency bias. Korhonen’s 69.0 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for 12th-best in the field, and his LT GIR of 70.9 percent is eighth-best.
Odds To Win: 6.7%, Martin Kaymer
By this point of the article, you probably already know who has the best odds to win this tournament (Henrik Stenson at 10 percent). The previously-mentioned Branden Grace is next up at a healthy 8.3 percent and third is Kaymer. Kaymer’s 68.2 Recent Adj Rd Score does a good job of illustrating his recent form, which has been awesome. He finished T5 last week, his third top 10 in his last four starts. Kaymer finished 29th here in 2012. Players with comparable odds to win have traditionally accounted for a +4.06 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 61.3 percent Consistency.
Bonus
Because fireworks scare my dog.
Pro Trends: 10, Henrik Stenson
Let’s be honest: The dude has dominated just about every available metric, so this really comes as no surprise. Along with “At Least 2% Vegas-Implied Odds of Winning,” Stenson’s most profitable Pro Trends are “Salary at Least $10,000” and “Long-Term Birdie Score at Least 65.”
