FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each week, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players for the week’s European Tour DFS slate.
Long-Term Metrics
Henrik Stenson quit the US Open last week because of sucking in the second round . . . umm, I mean he withdrew because of “minor neck and knee issues.” Despite that, he is scheduled to tee it up in Pulheim, Germany, for the 2016 BMW International Open.
Adjusted Round Score: 68.4, Henrik Stenson
Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) basically tells you how good a player’s overall game is. For those inclined to play the Euro Tour, this metric is especially important, as most of us don’t know who half of these golfers are. That’s not the case with Stenson, who has made a recent habit of burning DFS players. His last three PGA events include two missed cuts and a withdrawal. However, he finished fourth at the Nordea Masters, the last event he played in Europe. He lost a four-man playoff at this course in 2014, finishing at -19 and tied for second. Stenson also leads this week’s field in Long-Term Greens in Regulation at a ridiculous 74.3 percent. Speaking of . . .
Greens in Regulation: 73.6%, Nicolas Colsaerts
As indicated above, Stenson holds the top long-term percentage, but Colsaerts is not far behind in the second spot at a very high 73.6 percent. Colsaerts is an interesting study because he’s third in the field in Long-term Driving Distance, but also very wild off the tee with a 55.3 percent Long-Term Driving Accuracy. Despite his inability to find fairways off the tee, he still peppers the green with approach shots. Players in Colsaerts’ price range with comparable qualities have delivered a juicy +4.56 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Driving Distance: 318.7, Sebastien Gros
Gros is an animal off the tee, with a Long-Term Driving Distance average approaching 320 yards. Gros also puts those yards off the tee to good use, as indicated by his 0.6 Long-Term Eagle average, second-best in the field. Sebastien has a -5.2 Long-Term Par 5 score, which ranks third in this week’s field. The host course, Gut Larchenhof, has two very-reachable Par 5s on the back nine that will surrender a ton of eagles this week.
Driving Accuracy: 72.7%, Gregory Havret
Gut Larchenhof has proven beatable by both bombers and players accurate off the tee. Havret is one of only four players in the field with a Long-Term Driving Accuracy better than 70 percent. As you might expect, he also hits a ton of greens: His 70.1 percent GIR is 12th-best in the field. Comparable accuracy specialists in Havret’s price range have produced a +1.35 Plus/Minus with 53 percent Consistency on DraftKings.
Plus/Minus, Long-Term Driving, Consistency, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings page.
Scrambling: 63%, Bradley Dredge
Dredge is one of only three players in the field with a Scrambling percentage above 60 percent. And while his 70.5 Long-Term Adj Rd Score may not sound all that great, it’s seventh-best in this field. Golfers with comparable qualities in Dredge’s price range historically have had a modestly-positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Recent Metrics
Has Henrik withdrawn yet?
Adjusted Round Score: 67.5, Sergio Garcia
Nobody comes into this tournament in better recent form than Garcia, who finished fifth at the US Open last week. Sergio finished second and seventh at the BMW International in 2013 and 2011, respectively, but the event was played on a different course. He won the Mercedes-Benz Championship played on this course way back in 1999. He likes fancy cars.
Greens in Regulation: 72.7%, Joost Luiten
The previously-highlighted Stenson (76.9%) and Colsaerts (72.9%) are the top-two players in Recent GIR, and Luiten’s mark is third-best. Golfers in Luiten’s price range with comparable Recent GIR percentages have a delicious +3.28 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Luiten was seven-under par and four shots back of the leader after 36 holes at this course in 2012, but played poorly on the weekend, finishing tied for 38th. Joost has seven top-10 finishes in 13 Euro Tour events this season, including a sixth-place finish at the Lyoness Open in his last start.
Scrambling: 65%, Mikko Korhonen
Korhonen doesn’t just rank well in Recent Scrambling: His 69.2 Recent Adj Rd Score is tied for seventh-best, and his Recent GIR of 72.2 percent is fourth-best in this week’s field. Golfers in Mikko’s price range in comparable recent form have a +3.12 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Korhonen has three top-25 finishes and a missed cut in his last four starts.
Birdies Per Tournament: 17, Rikard Karlberg
Sergio actually has the best Recent Birdie average at 18.7, but Karlberg is firmly in second place in this metric, nearly two ahead of his nearest competitors. Karlberg is also second to Sergio in Recent Adj Rd Score at 67.8. He has an astonishing +42.5 Plus/Minus in the two DraftKings-scored events he has played, finishing second and seventh in those two events, while averaging 98.8 DK points per contest.
Odds to Win: 10%, Danny Willett
There are three players in this tournament with 10 percent or better odds to win. The previously-highlighted Garcia actually has the best odds at 11.8 percent, but both Willett and Stenson check in at 10 percent. Golfers with comparable odds and pricing have historically delivered a mammoth +7.85 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Willett’s 68.7 Recent Adj Rd Score is fifth-best in the field and his Long-Term Adj Rd Score of 69.2 is third-best. He won this tournament (played at Gut Larchenhof) in 2012 and finished T8 here in 2014. Oh yeah, he recently won the Masters, too.
Bonus
Because typing names I can’t pronounce is fun.
Pro Trends: 12, Sergio Garcia
So let me get this straight. Sergio has the best odds to win, the best Recent Adj Rd Score, the best Recent Birdie average, and he won at this course before? Yes he does and yes he has. Among Garcia’s dozen Pro Trends is “Long-Term Birdie Score At Least 65,” which historically produces a +2.35 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
