What You Need To Know
The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship is not your average Euro Tour event: Three of the world’s top-four golfers head a field that includes eight Major Champions — including three of the four reigning champions — and three former World No. 1s.
Multiple styles of golfers have found success here but seven of the last 10 winners finished the week ranked inside the top 10 for Greens in Regulation (GIR). Five of the last 10 winners have ranked inside the top six for Scrambling (SC), and none of those 10 winners have ranked worse than 28th in SC.
In both 2015 and 2016 the Par 3 holes were decimated by the players, and back in 2012 the 12th hole surrendered three holes-in-one.
The Big Four Three
World No. 2 Rory McIlroy withdrew on Monday due to an injured rib, knocking some shine off this star-studded field.
The United States Open Champion
Dustin Johnson ($11,500) had a relatively quiet 2017 debut in Hawaii: He came in sixth and put up only 95.5 DraftKings points.
DJ’s 67.8 Long-term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) and 15.4 percent odds to win lead the field. His 314.3-yard LT Driving Distance (DD) and 16.7 LT Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (Adj Bird Avg) both rank second. Per our free Trends tool, golfers with comparable LT metrics and salaries have provided a +7.04 Plus/Minus at average ownership of 26.1 percent in tournaments.
This is Johnson’s debut in Abu Dhabi, but he has finished worse than eighth in only one of his last five events. DJ’s 86.9 DK points per tournament (PPT) the past 12 months are second in the field. If he gets hot with the putter this week he will contend for the win.
The Champion Golfer of the Year
Last season’s Euro N0. 1, Henrik Stenson ($11,100) is second to only Johnson with a stellar 67.9 LT Adj Rd Score and 13.3 percent odds to win. Henrik leads the field with a 17 Adj Bird Avg, ranks second with 72 percent LT Driving Accuracy, and ranks sixth with a 74.5 LT GIR percentage.
Despite his seemingly perfect fit, Stenson has struggled at this course, as evidenced by his 71.1 Course Adj Rd Score. He has missed the cut here three times in the past five years. His shaky course history makes him too scary for cash games but perfect for guaranteed prize pools.
The Defending Champion
Rickie Fowler ($10,300) picked up his second Euro Tour win at Abu Dhabi last season, impressively holding off charges from Stenson, McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth on Sunday. Fowler ranks second in LT SC (62.5 percent) and third in both LT Adj Rd Score (68.5) and odds to win (8.3 percent).
Rickie hasn’t played an event since October’s HSBC Champions, where he finished sixth with a healthy 103.5 DK points. Before winning this event he finished 66th in 2015. He has a history of missing cuts at his title defenses — both the 2013 Wells Fargo and 2016 Players Championship — so it may be best to let Rickie knock the rust off before trusting him at this price.
Don’t Stop Believin’
“Some will win, some will lose. / Some were born to sing the blues.” — Steve Perry
Martin Kaymer ($8,000) has played 36 career rounds at Abu Dhabi Golf Club, and 30 of them have been played under par with 23 rounds in the 60s. He has won this event three times since 2008, was runner-up in 2009, and had top-six finishes in both 2013 and 2015. He did, however, surrender a 10-shot lead on Sunday in the 2015 event and hasn’t won since. I would be more concerned about any bad memories this course brings him if he hadn’t followed up his epic meltdown with a 16th-place finish in 2016.
Kaymer’s 69.3 LT Adj Rd Score is fifth, his 14.9 Adj Bird Avg is 12th, and his 70.6 LT GIR percentage ranks 27th overall. His 69.2 Course Adj Rd Score is the best in the field for golfers who have made more than two starts at this event. With 14 golfers priced higher than him this week, Kaymer is an excellent play in cash games and also GPPs.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Thomas Pieters ($8,800): Pieters finished just one shot back of Fowler last year, shooting 13-under par in the final two rounds. He finished fourth here in 2015 and has won three times on the Euro Tour. Pieters’ 69.8 LT Adj Rd Score ranks 12th, his 303.6-yard LT DD is 11th, and his 15.9 LT Adj Bird Avg is fifth.
Alex Noren ($9,600): Noren went ham last season with four wins in his final 12 events. His history here hasn’t been quite as glamorous: He hasn’t finished better than 31st at Abu Dhabi in his last seven starts, although he has made six straight cuts. Noren’s 69.4 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for sixth, his 14.5 LT Adj Bird Avg is tied for 18th, and his 4.3 percent odds to win are tied with Pieters’ for fourth. Golfers with similar salaries and odds to win have produced a +7.07 Plus/Minus with 66.0 percent Consistency.
Joost Luiten ($8,600): Luiten has finished no worse than sixth in his last three starts at Abu Dhabi, and he closed out the 2016 season with three straight top-16 finishes. Luiten’s 14th-ranked 72.4 percent LT GIR and 10th-best 15.2 LT Adj Bird Avg set him up nicely this week.
Byeong-Hun An ($8,400): An has played extremely well in the United Arab Emirates: He has never finished outside the top 15 in eight starts. He has fifth- and 12th-place finishes to his credit at Abu Dhabi. An’s 69.5 LT Adj Rd Score ranks ninth, and his 14.6 LT Adj Bird Avg is 17th.
Jordan L. Smith ($7,600): Smith’s 70.8 LT GIR percentage ranks 25th, his 302.6-yard LT DD is 14th, and his 14.5 LT Adj Bird Avg is 18th. Smith finished third behind McIlroy at last week’s BMW South African Open and won twice in this part of the world on the Euro Challenge Tour last season.
Richard Bland ($6,700): Bland’s game sets up well for Abu Dhabi with a 71.8 percent LT GIR and seventh-best 15.6 LT Adj Bird Avg. He has made the cut in six starts since 2010 but hasn’t finished better than 34th during that time.
Good luck in Abu Dhabi this week!
