Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our new Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Marcus Mariota ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- Corey Davis ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
Is The Corey Davis Era Finally Here? If you play the top-rated DraftKings stack in both the Bales and Adam Levitan Models, you’re sure to find out. Mariota has thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game just twice this season and has eclipsed the 300-yard mark only once, so he doesn’t come without risk. That said, Mariota is the No. 1 rated quarterback in Levitan’s Model for DraftKings, where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating and a top-five floor on the main slate. Mariota and the Titans are currently favored by 4.5 points at home against the Bengals; in 11 games as a home favorite, Mariota has generated 18.88 points per game (PPG) and a +1.64 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Further, in the three of those games in which his salary was below $6,000 on DraftKings, Mariota crushed to the tune of 23.19 PPG and a +7.19 Plus/Minus.
Returning from an injured hamstring, Davis — a stud at Western Michigan and the No. 5 overall pick in this year’s draft — was targeted five times and played 75 percent of the snaps last week. Like Mariota, Davis is the No. 1 rated player at his position in Levitan’s Model for DraftKings. Ian Hartitz had this to say about Davis in his matchups column:
Davis takes on the Bengals’ 17th-ranked defense in pass DVOA, and the unit has appeared to wilt behind their formerly-great outside corners Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick. The artist formerly known as Pacman is now 34 years old and PFF’s 91st-ranked cornerback out of 115 qualifiers, while Kirkpatrick comes in as the sixth-worst corner out of that sample.
Running Back + D/ST
- Jordan Howard ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
- Chicago ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel)
Since rookie Mitchell Trubisky took over quarterback duties in Chicago, Howard has been a market share monster, getting just under 80 percent of the team’s carries the past four weeks. Howard hasn’t carried the ball less than 21 times in the past three weeks and has had at least 21 carries in four of the Bears’ last six games. In those six games, Howard has averaged 100.5 yards per game, but touchdowns have been hard to come by in the Windy City: Jordan has crossed the goal line just three times in those six games. Howard has the sixth-highest median projection among running backs on FanDuel, where he is projected for a robust +3.20 Plus /Minus. The Bears are 5.5-point favorites at home against the Packers, putting Howard in a potentially positive game script where he could see incredible volume.
Projected to be the chalk defense on FanDuel, the Bears have a top-five projected ceiling against the Brett Hundley-led Packers, who are implied to score a slate-low 16.3 points against Chicago. Hundley has thrown four interceptions and been sacked eight times in his last three games. Green Bay’s offensive line has allowed the seventh-highest adjusted sack rate (8.3 percent), and Chicago has registered the seventh-highest sack percentage (8.1 percent) in the league this season.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Matthew Stafford ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- Marvin Jones ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
- Eric Ebron ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
- Ricardo Louis ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
Ben Gretch wasn’t kidding when he said Matthew Stafford is Super Stackable, and, ever since a FantasyLabs subscriber won a million bucks, using game stacks seems like an appealing tournament strategy. As discussed in The Daily Fantasy Flex, Stafford is a chalk lock and currently projected to be the highest-owned quarterback on both sites. Using a game stack with Stafford, however, is likely to make your lineup unique. The Lions are implied to score the third-most points on the main slate (27.3) against a Browns team that has allowed 22.55 PPG and a +6.24 Plus/Minus to quarterbacks at home on DraftKings and a +6.65 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. In his last three games, Stafford has averaged 365.3 passing yards per game.
Jones is third in market share of Air Yards over the last four games, hasn’t seen less than 11 targets in three weeks, and leads the Lions with a hefty 27.16 percent target share the last four weeks. The Browns defense funnels production toward the pass, and Detroit doesn’t have much of a running game regardless (Ameer Abdullah leads the team with 417 rushing yards). This could be an eruption spot for Jones if he continues his recent streak of double-digit target volume.
While he may not be the Greatest Tight End Ever (to Play the Giants this week) like Garrett Celek, Ebron gets a Browns defense that has allowed a league-high 18.8 PPG to the position on DraftKings and 14.8 PPG on FanDuel (second to only the Giants). Of course, catching the football when it’s thrown to him would help Ebron — his 50 percent catch rate on 36 targets this season is #bad. The good news: Ebron has been targeted less than four times only once in the last seven games; Stafford continues to feed him despite his drops. Matthew Freedman said this about Ebron:
If there were ever a game to be on Ebron, it’s this one. Ebron will have low ownership and serve as fantastic leverage on wide receivers Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. Ebron is the highest-rated DraftKings tight end in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models.
Playing as 11-point underdogs, the Browns are likely to be passing a lot, and Louis leads the team in target market share the last four weeks. Louis has gotten 6, 4, 7, 8, 9, and 6 targets over the last six games and is very likely to receive the bulk of Cleveland’s opportunities again this week. Detroit has allowed the 11th-most PPG to wide receivers on DraftKings (34.7) and the 10th-most on FanDuel (27.7).
