FantasyLabs now has soccer projections for the Premier League!
It’s been a very busy week in the Premier League, with multiple games throughout the week. This Saturday continues the action from the pitches with several key matches lined up for the main DraftKings slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. ET. There are a dozen teams scheduled to be in action, so there are lots of angles to take. This weekend is the start of Matchweek 30.
A quick reset for those new to the Premier League: the season consists of 38 Matchweeks and runs through May 23. Each team will play a total of 38 matches, and at this point, teams have about eight to 10 matches left in the season. The top five finishers qualify for European competitions, and the bottom three teams are “relegated” to the Championship League, which is the next league below the Premier League.
In a critical matchup for the relegation battle, Leicester City hosts Bournemouth on this slate as two of the bottom three teams. Getting three points with a win could move either squad out of the relegation zone, while Nottingham Forest (who take on in-form Aston Villa) and West Ham (who visit Fulham) could drop into that zone if they continue to struggle.
At the other end of the table, Newcastle United got a big win this week to move up to the No. 3 spot ahead of their visit to Brentford to take on the Bees. Tottenham is just a little behind Newcastle, as the Spurs host Brighton and Hove Albion, who are just behind them in the standings but surging towards the top with excellent recent form. In other mid-table action, Chelsea visits Wolverhampton to round out the six games on this slate.
Inside our soccer Player Models, you’ll find median and value projections, along with our Lineup Builder and Lineup Optimizer. The Lineup Builder is great for those of you that like to hand-build your teams — or you can utilize the Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
Now, let’s get into the slate!
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Premier League Forward DFS Picks
Top Play: João Félix at Wolverhampton, $7,100
While Felix still hasn’t been finishing as often as elite goal-scorers (just two goals in nine EPL games for Chelsea), he has constantly been getting good chances and seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough. The model believes in the 23-year-old Portuguese international and gives him the highest overall projection and the most points per $1,000 of salary of all the forwards on this slate.
Félix is on loan from Atletico Madrid, and his long-term future is still undetermined, but his form has been good enough to think he’ll be able to break through against Wolverhampton, who has allowed seven goals in their last four EPL games. Chelsea will hope to find better form under their new caretaker manager Frank Lampard, who will be in his first game at the helm in this match.
Even without scoring goals, he has been able to produce 8.8 DraftKings points or more in three straight games and should continue to be vitally involved as he leads the Blues on the road at Molineux Stadium.
Top Value: Emiliano Buendía vs. Nottingham Forest, $5,400
Aston Villa has won five of their last six games and earned a draw in their other contest during that stretch. Their surge under new manager Unai Emery has them eyeing a spot in the European leagues if they can keep pressing. Buendía has been one of Emery’s primary changes and has started 17 of Villa’s last 18 games. The Argentine is in the top five in Points per $1,000 salary of all forwards on this slate. He has produced over 13 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, with an assist and a goal in those contests.
This is definitely a spot to target Villa’s offense. Nottingham Forest has allowed 13 goals in their past five road games across all competitions, with multiple goals allowed in each contest. With Villa in such fine form, they should get some goals, and Buendía has been involved enough to be a strong midrange target at either midfield or forward.
Other cheap plays at forward who are highly rated by the model include Bournemouth’s Dango Ouattara, Leicester’s Patson Daka, and Buendía’s teammate Leon Bailey.
Premier League Midfielder DFS Picks
Top Play: James Maddison vs. Bournemouth, $9,000
For the second straight week, Maddison is the top player in the projections. Last week, he was a letdown with only 5.5 DraftKings points against Crystal Palace. He bounced back in his midweek match against Villa with 13.1 DraftKings points, though, and he has at least that many points in seven of his past eight contests, including two goals and two assists.
The 26-year-old midfielder orchestrates almost the entire attack for Leicester City and should be in a strong spot against Bournemouth. He has averaged 17.3 DraftKings points per game in his 22 games, and he’s projected to outperform that average based on this soft matchup at home.
The Foxes desperately need the win to get out of the relegation zone, and Maddison could use a strong showing to further boost his value in the transfer market, where he has been drawing plenty of attention from many of the top clubs in the Premier League. Maddison not only has the highest projection, but he also has the most points per $1,000 of Salary of all midfielders.
Top Value: Hamed Traorè at Leicester City, $6,600
Traorè has been one of the better options from Bournemouth lately, as he continues to show plenty of creative upside. He has the third-highest Points per $1,000 of all midfielders, which indicates he should be a good value option.
In his midweek fixture against Brighton, Traorè had 10 crosses and finished with 12.3 DraftKings points. He came off the bench last Saturday against Fulham and was limited to -0.4 DraftKings points. However, he was so much better on Tuesday he should be ready to return to form in this favorable matchup against Maddison and Leicester, who typically play a wide-open style that leads to goals in both directions. If the Cherries are going to battle their way out of the relegation zone, the 23-year-old Ivory Coast international’s contributions will be key.
Other value options to consider in the midfield include Pedro Neto of Wolverhampton, Wilfred Ndidi of Leicester City, and Lucas Paqueta of West Ham.
Premier League Defender DFS Picks
Top Play: Kieran Trippier at Brentford, $8,500
Trippier has the highest projection of all defenders on this slate and is second only behind Maddison of all players at all positions. Trippier is a key contributor from his defender spot for Newcastle and almost always gets involved in the attack. He has at least nine crosses and 11 DraftKings points in each of the past five games, with a pair of assists and an average of 15.9 DraftKings points.
He has six assists and a goal in his 28 games, but his real value comes from his creativity and ability to take corners and hit crosses. This match should be a fun one to watch between two strong squads, so the Magpies will need to have Trippier’s creation abilities on full display.
Top Value: Timothy Castagne vs. Bournemouth, $4,000
Castagne and Reece James are the only two defenders on this slate with a better projection per $1,000 of salary than Trippier. Castagne came through in my picks last week with 12.7 DraftKings with an assist on the Fox’s only goal in their loss to Crystal Palace. He had another strong game in the middle of this week with 4.7 DraftKings points and another cross. He did get a yellow card in that game, and if he can avoid another booking, he should be a good value play.
The Belgian international has been a fixture with over 3.0 DKFP in 11 of his past 12 games, offering a very solid floor.
Other highly-rated value options in the model include Neco Williams of Nottingham Forest, Emerson of West Ham along with Ashley Young and Ezri Konsa of Aston Villa.
Premier League Goalie DFS Picks
Top Play: Emiliano Martínez vs. Nottingham Forest, $5,700
Martínez is the highest-priced keeper on this slate and stands out as the obvious choice, given his team’s current run of form. He allowed a goal against Leicester City on Tuesday and only had 9.4 DraftKings points, but he had four clean sheets in his five previous games, totaling 18 saves and averaging 15.5 DraftKings points per game.
Forest hasn’t been good on the road, and Martínez and Villa should be poised to get the win this weekend. He also has been posting enough clean sheets that he brings the highest ceiling of any keeper available.
Top Value: José Sá, $4,300
The Wolverhampton Wanderers have had a run of inconsistent form lately, but their issues in the defensive third have actually given Sá a chance to shine. He has posted exactly six saves in three of his past four games and averaged 13.9 DraftKings points in those three games. His other game during that stretch was a disaster against Leeds, in which he allowed four goals and totaled -7.5 DraftKings points. He’s a boom-or-bust play, as indicated by those extreme results indicate.
It should help Sá that he’s at home against Chelsea, who has been struggling to score this season and only totaled 29 goals in their 29 games. The Blues didn’t score in either of their two games in the past week, and Sá could be a great value if he continues their scoring drought in this matchup.
