FantasyLabs now has soccer projections for the Premier League!
After a week off for International competitions, the Premier League season is back in action this weekend to fill up your Saturday with some spectacular soccer action. The main piece of a very busy Matchweek 29 takes place on Saturday at 10 a.m. ET, when five games make up the main slate on DraftKings.
A quick reset for those new to the Premier League: the season consists of 38 Matchweeks and runs through May 23. Each team will play a total of 38 matches, and at this point, teams have about 10 to 12 matches left in the season. There’s still time for teams to make moves in the standings, known as the table, but they’ll need to get going if they want to finish on a hot streak.
At the conclusion of the season, the bottom three teams are “relegated” to the Championship League, which is the next league below the Premier League. Coming into this week, Southampton, Bournemouth, and West Ham United are in those three spots, and Bournemouth is in action on this slate, hosting Fulham, who comes into play at No. 9 in the table. If they can get a win, the Cherries could climb out of the relegation zone.
Atop the table, Arsenal hosts Leeds as the heaviest favorite on this slate by a wide margin. In the only matchup between a pair of top-10 teams in the table, Brighton welcomes Brentford. In the other two games, Crystal Palace hosts Leicester City and the Wolves of Wolverhampton visit Nottingham Forest.
Inside our soccer Player Models, you’ll find median and value projections, along with our Lineup Builder and Lineup Optimizer. The Lineup Builder is great for those of you that like to hand-build your teams — or you can utilize the Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
Now, let’s get into the slate!
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Premier League Forward DFS Picks
Top Play: Bukayo Saka vs. Leeds United, $11,500
Saka has the highest projection of all forwards on this slate by a very wide margin, so it’s worth considering paying up for the 21-year-old English phenom. He was just named Premier League Player of the Month earlier this week for the first time in his career and has been in top form with at least 19 DraftKings points in six of his past eight EPL matches. Just before the break, he had two goals and an assist on his way to 40.8 DraftKings points in a dominant 4-1 win for the Gunners.
In his 28 appearances this season, Saka has racked up 12 goals and 10 assists while emerging as one of the top producers in the league. Arsenal has moved eight points clear at the top of the table after winning six straight games in league play, and Saka is one of the key contributors to their recent dominant form.
Leeds has allowed five goals over their three EPL matches this month and is barely clear of the relegation zone after picking up a draw and a win before last week’s break.
Top Value: Carlos Vinícius at Bournemouth, $4,000
Vinícius stands alone atop all forwards in projected Points per $1,000, with a large group just behind him. The reason for the bump in his projection is that the Brazilian is expected to move into the starting XI in place of Aleksandar Mitrović, who is serving a suspension after making contact with a referee during Fulham’s FA Cup defeat earlier this month.
In his most recent appearance off the bench, Vinícius scored against Brentford on his way to 11.6 DKFP. He has scored two goals to go with an assist and 11 shots in his 18 EPL appearances this season. His most recent start was February 24, when he totaled 4.9 DKFP against the Wolves. Earlier this year, he also scored and had 18.1 DKFP against Chelsea in January when he filled in for a suspended Mitrović due to accumulated yellow cards. At just $4K, he gives you a great chance to balance out spending up for Saka in your other forward spot.
Other cheap plays at forward who are highly rated by the model include Bournemouth’s Jaidon Anthony, Fulham’s Bobby Reid, Crystal Palace’s Odsonne Edouard, and Leicester’s Patson Daka.
Premier League Midfielder DFS Picks
Top Play: James Maddison at Crystal Palace, $9,200
Maddison is the only player on the slate who has a higher Projection than Saka. The 26-year-old midfielder orchestrates the attack for Leicester City and has both a high floor and a high ceiling in his extremely involved role. He has at least 13 DraftKings points in each of his six EPL contests since the start of February, with an average of 17.6 DKFP over that span. During that run, he has scored or assisted four goals.
During last week’s break, Maddison got his first-ever start for England and looked outstanding. He should be energized to return and help his club team avoid sinking into the relegation zone. On the season, he has nine goals, six assists and is averaging just under 3.0 shots per game.
Leicester’s style can sometimes result in flurries of goals, and if this match against Crystal Palace turns into a high-scoring match, having the man in the middle of everything for the Foxes is an investment that should pay off.
Top Value: Pedro Neto at Nottingham Forest, $4,100
Neto is projected to be included in the Wolves’ lineup after another strong showing during the International break last week. He had an impressive goal against Romania and also played well against Norway. At the start of the season, he was carrying a full workload before suffering a tough ankle injury in October.
He has played 45 minutes in each of his three appearances this month and posted over 5.0 DraftKings points in each of his two most recent games. He has superstar potential and should be very involved as he ramps back up to full strength. Getting him at this cheap salary ahead of a critical matchup makes sense either in the midfield or your utility spot.
Other value options to consider in the midfield include Harrison Reed and João Palhinha of Fulham, Wilfred Ndidi of Leicester City, and Moisés Caicedo of Brighton.
Premier League Defender DFS Picks
Top Play: Kenny Tete at Bournemouth, $6,300
Tete has been locked in at right back for Fulham in 2023, and he has made 12 starts in a row. While he’s still looking for his first goal of the season, he typically gets very involved in the attack. He has created 12 chances in those 12 starts, including one assist. He has four games during that span with at least 12 DraftKings points and has over 7.0 DraftKings points in each of his seven most recent contests.
Tete and Fulham should be one of the most popular defenses to consider as well since the Cherries could be a good target for a clean sheet. As a result of his offensive involvement and favorable matchup, Tete has the highest Projection of all defenders on this slate.
Top Value: Timothy Castagne at Crystal Palace, $3,800
Castagne is a Belgian international who also had a good international break and is expected to be back in action for his club team this week. He started and played all 90 minutes in Belgium’s 3-2 win over Germany.
He’s a regular fixture at the back for Leicester City and has 13 shots, one goal, and two assists in his 26 games this season. He has over 3.0 DKFP in nine of his past 10 games, so he offers a very solid floor, and he also has had over 7.5 DKFP in two of his past four games, showing his good ceiling. He has the highest projected points per $1,000 salary of any defender on this slate and comes affordably under $4K.
Other highly-rated value options in the model include Antonee Robinson of Fulham, Craig Dawson of Wolverhampton, and Rob Holding of Arsenal.
Premier League Goalie DFS Picks
Top Play: Aaron Ramsdale vs. Leeds $5,900
Ramsdale is the obvious choice, given how strongly Arsenal is favored over Leeds, but he’s an option you have to consider since Leeds can really struggle on offense, and a clean sheet is definitely within the range of possibilities. Ramsdale has given up one or zero goals in four of his past five games with 13 saves resulting in double-digit DraftKings points in each of those four contests.
The rise of Arsenal to the top of the standings has coincided with a great run of form for Ramsdale, and this seems like a matchup for that run to continue at home for Ramsdale and the rest of his squad.
He has the highest Goalkeeper projection on the slate, with Jason Steele of Brighton just behind.
Top Value: Daniel Iversen at Crystal Palace, $4,500
We’ll go back to Leicester City for one more pick since Iversen has the highest projected Points per $1,000 of any keeper on this slate. Iversen just made his first start of the season before the break as part of the changes made by manager Brendan Rodgers to try to steer his squad clear of relegation. He had one save and allowed one goal for 0.4 DKFP, but it was a goal he could do nothing about in a tough road game against in-form Brentford.
Iversen replaced Danny Ward, but no official announcement has been made about which keeper will start this contest. If it’s Iversen, he gets a soft enough matchup to be a good value option, according to our models. Not playing Ramsdale could be costly if Arsenal dominates, but if you do pivot, it makes sense to go cheap with the Foxes’ keeper.
