Probably the best thing about Fantasy Labs is the freedom it gives you to work a huge amount of data. But let’s be honest, one of the worst things about Fantasy Labs can be the freedom it gives you to work with a huge amount of data. Sometimes the data can be overwhelming and it can be hard to figure out where to start.
I’m going to use this series of articles as a reference guide of sorts where I’ll breakdown the top trends to be aware of by position. From there, you can setup your own custom trends to alert you when one of these matchups are in play or just make a mental note to yourself. Without further ado, let’s look at some splits at QB using DraftKings scoring.
First, we’ll look at home/road splits. Here’s Russell Wilson:
The narrative is pretty obvious here – Seattle is very tough to beat at home, they’re going to get out to a lead and then just wear you out with the run game. You more or less expect Russell to have a home/road split, but I certainly didn’t expect it to be this wide.
He is the single worst active QB by Plus/Minus who has made seven or more starts at home over 2014-2015 and he’s the single best road QB using the same criteria. So you might want to check where the Seahawks are playing each week.
Honorable mention goes to Peyton Manning. His -2.28 Plus/Minus at home finished slightly behind Wilson in the category. However, he is currently only pulling a -0.01 Plus/Minus on the road, making the gap much narrower than Wilson’s.
Meanwhile, the best overall QB by Plus/Minus at home is…
Ryan Fitzpatrick, obviously. What’s weird is that he’s had two different “homes” over the result set. Using FanDuel data, we can go back to 2012 and see that Fitz has always played much better at home over his career. 80,000 crazed fans screaming “Ryan! Ryan!” is clearly the type of shit that gets Fitzpatrick going.
Playing against a division opponent is generally bad for a QB’s production:
But, it’s been smooth sailing for Cam Newton when he is playing against his NFL South rivals. Over the past two seasons, Cam has added 5.34 points in Plus/Minus. The other names were a bit more surprising. Ben and Russell Wilson both have fared very well against their divisional opponents, despite playing in divisions that are known for defense first.
Drew Brees and Matt Ryan are notorious for being successful when playing in domes (usually their own). Surprisingly though, Brees has both scored more points and had a higher Plus/Minus as a Visitor in 2014 and 2015. Matt Ryan continues to do well indoors and the former Beast of the RCA Dome checks in at a disappointing -1.68.
When a QB’s price has increased by $500 or more over the course of a month in DraftKings, it’s usually a bad time to buy. But for some QBs it doesn’t matter. Some QBs have even added huge amounts of value when at their most expensive. Dare you to fade these guys when they’re rolling:
Sticking with Tom Brady, he’s the ultimate “chip on his shoulder” guy in DFS. I don’t necessarily put much weight in Narrative Street most of the time, but I’m convinced that Angry Tom is real. Here’s what happens when Vegas says Tom is going to lose:
Okay, this next one is pretty unbelievable. Here are the results for games played in freezing temperatures in 2014. Aaron Rodgers thrives and everybody else sucks.
Rodgers also doesn’t care if it’s windy (winds 10+ miles per hour)
If you’re a QB, you can only have a big fantasy game against a team that ranks as a top 25% defense if you have won a Super Bowl. Some guys are good to take in tough matchups because ownership will be down, but performance might not necessarily take a hit. I think top flight quarterbacks generally fit that criteria.
Finally, who has Fantasy Labs been the best at predicting? When a player qualifies for five or more Pro Trends, the top results are a little surprising:
These’s a lot of stuff to keep track of in fantasy football. Do yourself a favor and setup your own trends so that when there is a favorable situation, you will be alerted automatically!
