With the NFL draft and free agency having come and gone, we’ll break down all sorts of fantasy-relevant questions entering the 2018 season. Up next is a look at Eli Manning and whether he can bounce back from a disappointing year in 2017.
Eli Manning is one of the most hotly debated quarterbacks outside of Joe Flacco. He’s likely headed to Canton one day on the back of two Super Bowl victories and currently ranks sixth in career passing yards, but he’s never been a dominant regular-season quarterback. He’s eclipsed 30 TDs in just two of 13 seasons as a full-time starter and has a career quarterback rating of just 83.5. To put that in perspective, Tyrod Taylor has a career QBR of 91.2 and was just run out of town in Buffalo.
Things really came to a head for Manning in 2017, when he posted arguably his worst season since 2007. He was ultimately benched for Geno Smith, which is one of the greatest indignities than can be paid to a professional quarterback. The Giants ended the season at just 3-13, and Manning finished as just QB28 in fantasy points per game.
All that said, it’s impossible to blame everything that went wrong last season for the Giants on Manning, and his outlook looks much brighter in 2018. The question is: Does he have enough left in the tank to pay off his current price tag of QB21?
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Get in Line
The Giants’ offensive line got a major overhaul this offseason after being much maligned in 2017. It ranked as the sixth-worst pass-blocking unit in football last season (per Pro Football Focus), and Manning faced pressure on the fifth-highest percentage of drop backs. He was predictably not great in pressure situations, ranking 17th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) among QBs.
They started their overhaul by making Nate Solder the highest-paid tackle in football, and he’ll serve as Manning’s blind side protector. That will allow Ereck Flowers to move to the right side, where hopefully he’ll be able to find more success in better matchups. Unfortunately, Solder is going to have to play a lot better than he did in 2017 if he wants to live up to his paycheck: He allowed 51 QB pressures – tied for the fifth-most in football – and was merely 48th among offensive tackles in pass-block rating, per PFF.
There are questions on the interior as well. In the second round of the 2018 draft, the Giants drafted Will Hernandez, who has the potential to be a real difference-maker: He graded out as the second-best pass-blocking guard in 2017, and his 2016 grade of 95.2 is the highest single-season grade ever given to a guard in the PFF College era.
The other two spots on the interior don’t look nearly as promising. Interestingly enough, the Giants had the sixth-best pass protector at center in Brett Jones, but they chose to ship him out of town for a late-round pick. Instead, they’ll go with Jon Halapio, who was much less impressive in limited snaps. They also signed Patrick Omameh away from the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he graded out as just the 52nd-best pass blocker at guard last season. Overall, this still looks like one of the weakest offensive lines in football, and PFF has them ranked 25th heading into the season.
Even if the Giants’ line does perform better this season, there’s no guarantee Manning will be able to take advantage of it. He was significantly worse than average last season when the Giants did manage to give him time to throw, ranking just 29th in DVOA when pressure free. He and Flacco were the only projected starters who managed a DVOA below 30% in those situations, suggesting that both quarterbacks are living more on reputation than production at this stage of their careers.
The Return of OBJ
If there is a reason to expect progression from Manning in 2018, it’s the return of all-world WR Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ graded out as a top-seven receiver — according to PFF — in 2014, 2015 and 2016 before playing just four games in 2017. He provides the Giants with a big-play threat they were sorely missing last season, possessing the ability to beat the defense over the top or take a slant to the house.
Unsurprisingly, Manning has been much better with the uber-talented receiver in the lineup over the past four seasons:
NYG splits with & without OBJ
Manning 👍
With (47 games): 7.1 Y/A, 21.7 PPR
W/o (16 games): 6.2 Y/A, 16 PPRShepard👎
With (20 games): 6.3 targets, 11.4 PPR
W/o (7 games): 9 targets, 14.4 PPREngram 👎
With (4 games): 7.3 targets, 9.2 PPR
W/o (11 games): 7.8 targets, 12.5 PPR— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 22, 2018
Beckham isn’t the only big-time player bolstering the offense, either. The Giants used the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft on Saquon Barkley, who FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman has called the most talented RB prospect since Adrian Peterson. Barkley gave Giants fans a glimpse of his talent on his first career touch, ripping off a 39-yard carry:
NFL SAQUON pic.twitter.com/2hgUBFVSlb
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 9, 2018
He’s also expected to be a big-time producer in the passing game. He caught 82 passes over his final two collegiate seasons and averaged 12.61 yards per reception. He graded out as the fourth-best receiver at RB in this year’s draft class, per PFF. The Giants might lean a little more on the run game than they did last season, when they had the fourth-highest pass frequency in the league, but a better run game could lead to longer drives and more scoring opportunities.
In addition to OBJ, the Giants also return Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, both of whom are often being selected in the top-10 rounds of fantasy drafts. They have arguably one of the most talented groups of pass-catchers in the league, which makes Manning’s current ADP fascinating. If all four of those players live up to expectations, Manning will almost undoubtedly be a value at QB21.
Conclusions
Ultimately, Manning looks like a high-ceiling, low-floor option for 2018. His numbers when not pressured last season are very concerning, and he still figures to be pressured at an above-average rate this season. Adding OBJ and Saquon into the offense should obviously help, but it’s entirely possible that Manning is simply past his prime at 37 years old. That’s not ancient by QB standards, but it’s important to remember that Manning has never been an elite talent such as Tom Brady or Drew Brees. Our rankings gurus are higher on guys such as Mitch Trubisky and Blake Bortles — both of whom are coming off the board after Manning in many drafts – and I’d rather draft Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor as well.
Taking a stand on Manning also seems important for his skill players. If you’re not buying an Eli bounceback, it seems unlikely that all of his teammates will be able to live up to their price tags.
You can use our tools to research more player- or team-specific questions for yourself, and be sure to check out The Action Network for more in-depth NFL analysis.
Pictured above: Eli Manning
Photo credit: Brad Penner- USA Today Sports
