The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Tommy Pham ($2,700): Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
Runs have flowed naturally through the first two games of the Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres series. A combined 28 runs have been scored with the Friars taking the first two games of the series. Watch out for Reds outfielder Tommy Pham, who projects as an underrated bat on Thursday’s slate.
Pham is hitting the ball harder than just about anyone else in the majors right now. The 34-year-old has an average exit velocity of 94.4 miles per hour, ranking in the top 3% of hitters. Similarly, his hard-hit rate is 53.8%, putting him in the 91st percentile. Although Pham’s traditional stats are down, his advanced metrics support that he’s due for a breakout performance.
The Padres send Nick Martinez to the mound for the sweep amid some of the worst metrics of his career. Martinez has an expected slugging percentage of .623, and a 7.04 expected earned run average, putting him among the worst pitchers in the MLB.
The Reds could make some noise on Thursday, and Pham should easily surpass his implied value.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Chas McCormick ($2,200): Outfielder, Houston Astros
From top to bottom, the Houston Astros have a loaded lineup. However, they are underachieving as a team, dropping their slugging percentage to .641 on the season. Chas McCormick‘s performances this season are analogous to the team as a whole, and we’re expecting him to build off of last night’s two-hit, one home run performance.
The solid outing was a welcome change of pace for McCormick, who had recorded just one other extra-base hit since Opening Day. The second-year player’s barrel percentage is half of what it was last year, going from 10.2% to 5.1%. While his hard-hit rate is down nearly 11%, falling to 38.5% off last year’s pace of 49.2%
According to our projections, McCormick is the best bang for your back in the early slate. The Astros’ outfielder leads THE BAT X Points/Salary rankings and sits second in Projected Plus/Minus, which is supported by our in-house projections.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Zack Wheeler ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Every time Zach Wheeler toes the rubber, he’s a legitimate threat to go off. That’s once again the case as the Philadelphia Phillies look for a four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies. Wheeler leads our median and ceiling projections, making him our top play on the mound.
Wheeler’s first three starts of the season haven’t been great, but there are some green sprouts in his metrics. The former All-Star has eight punchouts over his past 8.0 innings, putting up his best strike-to-ball ratio on the season last time out against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Reconciling Wheeler’s advanced analytics with his traditional metrics supports that more effective innings are on the horizon. His expected earned run average of 4.77 is almost half of his actual 8.53 mark, while his hard-hit and barrel ratings still put him in the 74th percentile of MLB pitchers.
The Rockies’ batting metrics take a hit on the road, benefitting Wheeler and the Phillies on Thursday. We expect Wheeler to be one of the best fantasy-producing pitchers on the day slate.
Hitter
Byron Buxton ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton does it all, making him a threat to accumulate fantasy points in a number of ways. The MVP candidate can score, knock in runs, hit for power, and steals bases. No matter how he does it, you can expect Buxton to put up fantasy points.
Buxton is one of the premier hitters in the MLB, and that’s reflected in his traditional and advanced stats. The eight-year veteran ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity and expected slugging percentage. Buxton is making solid contact more often than not, with a hard-hit percentage of 56.7%, a top 3% rating. Similarly, his 1.125 on-base plus slugging percentage is the sixth-best in the league among hitters with at least 40 plate appearances.
This is a dreadful matchup for left-handed throwing Tarik Skubal, giving right-handed-hitting Buxton an advantage he didn’t need. Buxton could have his best fantasy performance of the season in the bag when the dust settles on this one.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the New York Yankees. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Baltimore Orioles southpaw Bruce Zimmermann is off to a good start, albeit an unsustainable one. Zimmermann has a 1.20 earned run average through his first three starts of the season but is pitching above expected levels. His expected earned run average and expected slugging percentage rank in the bottom half of the league, putting him in a bad spot against the top half of the Yankees order.
Anthony Rizzo has been the best Yankees hitter to start the season, leading the team with a 1.106 on-base plus slugging percentage. Aaron Judge and DJ LeMahieu are close behind, with .910 and .878 marks, respectively. Those three players are projected to bat one, two, and three, giving Zimmerman no choice but to pitch to the best hitters on the team.
Giancarlo Stanton bats in the cleanup spot and will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, elevating his fantasy appeal.
Although Josh Donaldson‘s tenure with the Yankees isn’t off to the best start, six of his 12 hits have gone for extra bases this season. Historically, the right-handed hitting Donaldson has been much better against lefties, with a career .557 slugging percentage.
Fireworks should be expected in this one. The Yankees should extend their winning streak to six games, thanks in large part to the top half of their batting order.
