The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Wednesday’s seven-game early slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Bobby Witt Jr. ($2,600): Third Base, Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. is getting acclimated to major league life, and his tenure is off to a shaky start. Still, we like his potential to breakout against Joe Ryan and the Minnesota Twins on Thursday’s early slate.
Witt Jr. has flashed power at times this season, with three of his five hits going for extra bases while driving in three runs and scoring four. When he makes contact, the 22-year-old is putting a charge on the ball.
We like this matchup against Ryan, who ranks in the bottom half of the league in barrel and expected slugging percentages. The Twins pitcher relies on a fastball-slider combo which is right up Witt Jr.’s alley, with all five of his hits coming off fastball or breaking pitches.
The Royals’ prospect won’t be subdued for long, and he projects as a solid value play at DraftKings (95% Bargain Rating), thanks to his power potential against a pitcher who is due for a letdown.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Christian Walker ($2,600): First Base, Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a massive 11-2 win over the Washington Nationals last night. Christian Walker got in on the action last night, going 1-for-3 with one run batted in and three runs scored. He could set the fantasy bar even higher in Thursday matinee.
Right-handed hitting Walker gets an ideal matchup against southpaw Josh Rogers, but his appeal goes well beyond the righty-lefty matchup.
Walker is a breakout candidate; his modest .324 slugging percentage is substantially lower than the expected value of .656. The 31-year-old is in elite company with his hitting metrics, ranking in the top 12% of hitters in average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average, and expected slugging percentage. Walker is making solid contact in most of his plate appearances, with a 52% hard-hit and 16% barrel ratings.
Rogers is a contact pitcher relying on his low 90s fastball nearly 50% of the time. That’s where Walker thrives, with a .840 expected slugging percentage against the heater. We could see a season-best performance from Walker on Thursday.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Jordan Montgomery ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
New York Yankees pitcher Jordan Montgomery started the year on the wrong foot but showed huge improvement in his second start against the Baltimore Orioles, tossing 5.0 scoreless innings. The lefty should continue his momentum into Thursday afternoon’s contest against the Detroit Tigers.
Montgomery has been dealing to start the year, ranking in the 89th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 87th percentile in expected slugging percentage, and 75th percentile in expected earned run average and expected weighted on-base average. He’s in an excellent position to maintain those metrics against the Tigers, who are slugging just .610 through 11 games this season.
We have yet to see Montgomery unlock his strikeout potential this year, with the 30-year-old sitting down 16.2% of hitters, below his career average of 23.1%. That could mean punchouts come in bunches for Montgomery, starting against a Tigers squad that strikes out 28.8% of the time.
Montgomery projects as a top pitching option on both platforms despite the low salary. He could set the high mark in fantasy points on the early slate.
Hitter
Juan Soto ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Not many players would consider a .908 on-base plus slugging percentage underachieving, but that’s the case with perennial MVP candidate Juan Soto. The two-time Silver Slugger is below his career norms in a few standard statistics but has advanced metrics supporting that progress is forthcoming.
Soto’s actual slugging percentage of .511 is below his expected value of .598, implying that we should see improved performances from the 23-year-old. Similarly, his 35.1% hard-hit rating through 13 games is a deviation from his career average of 47.9%, with Soto still ranking in the top 3% in maximum exit velocity, suggesting that more solid contact should be expected from the Washington Nationals slugger.
Over the past couple of seasons, D-Backs pitcher Zach Davies has ranked among the worst pitchers in the MLB. Last season, Davis put up an expected slugging percentage of .487, ranking in the bottom 8% of pitchers. His metric looks even worse this season, currently sitting at .501.
Soto’s metrics could be back up to expected levels when he gets through this one. He’s our ceiling projection favorite on the early slate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points is the Boston Red Sox. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
At face value, newly acquired pitcher Kevin Gausman‘s time with the Toronto Blue Jays is off to a decent start. Gausman is 0-1 with a 4.22 earned run average and 14 strikeouts through two starts. Still, some concerning underlying metrics suggest that Gausman is due for a letdown. Red Sox hitters will be ready to take advantage on Thursday afternoon.
Gausman is getting knocked around, putting up an average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage ranking in the bottom 23rd percentile in the league. His expected slugging percentage raises a few red flags, coming in at .477, putting him in the bottom 35% of MLB pitchers.
The top half of the Sox lineup is devouring pitchers, with Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers all slugging .500 or better. According to our projections, Trevor Story and Enrique Hernandez should fill out the top five. Hernandez is operating below career norms and should start to progress over his coming games.
Be ready to adapt your DFS lineups. Story’s participation in the AL East encounter isn’t guaranteed after taking a pitch to the head last night. If that’s the case, look for J.D. Martinez, who ranks fourth on the team in slugging percentage, to step in.
The Red Sox should get to Gausman on the quick turnaround, going from night to day game, and the top half of the order should do most of the damage. They are our top stacking pick for the early games.
