NFL Week 17 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Football Team starting at 8:15 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Jalen Hurts at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $17,100 as opposed to $11,400.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
It all comes down to this primetime game. Tonight’s contest between Washington and Philadelphia will be the final game of the 2020 regular season, but the stakes are much different for these two squads. For Washington, this is essentially its first playoff game. If it wins, Washington takes the division and advances to the actual playoffs. If they lose, either the New York Giants or Dallas Cowboys earns the division title. It’s that simple.
For the Eagles, they’re just ready to get this season over with at this point. They released a massive injury report for this contest, and will be without key contributors on both sides of the ball.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Washington has become a solid favorite. It was initially listed as a four-point underdog on the advance spread, but moved all the way to a five-point road favorite. That gives Washington the edge in DFS from a Las Vegas perspective.
Hurts is the most expensive player in this contest, and he has had an excellent start to his career from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his first three games, showing the ability to rack up fantasy points in a variety of manners. He excelled as a rusher in his first game, amassing 106 yards on the ground. He has also passed for at least 300 yards in each of his past two.
He’ll face a stiff test tonight vs. Washington – he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.5 on DraftKings – but virtually no one in this contest can match his ceiling. He leads all players in terms of median and ceiling projection in our NFL Models, and his projected Plus/Minus ranks second on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Washington has been forced to play without some of their top offensive players recently, but the good news is that Alex Smith, Terry McLaurin, and Antonio Gibson are all expected to suit up tonight.
Smith is not someone that typically garners much interest in fantasy, but quarterbacks are always appealing in the single-game format. He hasn’t finished with more than 19.0 DraftKings points in any start this season, but he is in an appealing spot. The Eagles have struggled defensively this season, ranking just 26th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and Smith owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.4 on DraftKings.
Smith should also benefit from the Eagles’ injury situation. The one thing that their defense has going for them is their elite pass rush, but they shouldn’t be nearly as potent with Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett out of the lineup.
The reduced pass rush should also be positive for McLaurin. He has struggled mightily from a fantasy perspective recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, but Smith should have plenty of time in the pocket to try and find him downfield. Pro Football Focus also gives McLaurin a sizeable edge in his individual matchup vs. Michael Jacquet III, so this is a nice bounce-back spot.
Gibson emerged as Washington’s best fantasy option before going down with an injury. He scored a total of eight touchdowns in his five games between Week 7 and Week 12, and he also averaged 80.4 rushing yards per game over that stretch. He had even started to siphon some of the receiving work away from J.D. McKissic, finishing with seven targets vs. the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
He returned to the lineup last week vs. the Panthers and was effective in limited playing time. He played on just 30% of the offensive snaps but finished with 61 rushing yards on 10 carries.
Gibson should grab a larger chunk of the playing time this week in a must-win contest. The Eagles aren’t a great matchup on paper – Gibson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.9 on DraftKings – but their absences along the defensive line should make them weaker against the run.
Midrange
Even with Gibson back, McKissic still figures to have a large role with Washington. He has been heavily featured as a receiver all season, and he’s logged at least 10 targets in back-to-back weeks. Smith loves to check the ball down to him, and his upside as a pass-catcher makes him a viable option on DraftKings. He also makes for a great stacking partner with Smith given their correlation of +0.61.
Logan Thomas is another player who has emerged for Washington recently. The converted quarterback has been heavily featured over the past four games, finishing with an average of nearly 11 targets per game. He’s also played on a perfect 100% of the offensive snaps over that time frame. Overall, he’s scored at least 10.3 DraftKings points in eight of his past 10 games, which gives him a solid floor in this matchup.
Deciphering the Eagles’ passing attack is going to be a huge factor on this slate. They are going to be without Dallas Goedert and DeSean Jackson, but that still leaves them with a very crowder group of pass-catchers. Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, Zach Ertz, and Alshon Jeffery are all priced between $6,200 and $4,400 on DraftKings.
Ertz stands out as my favorite option of the group. He figures to be the biggest beneficiary of Goedert being out of the lineup, and he’s already seen seven targets in back-to-back weeks. He hasn’t been able to convert those targets into many fantasy points, but the opportunities are ultimately the most important factor.
After Ertz, paying up for Reagor or Ward seems like your best bet. Ward led the team with a 90% snap share last week, while Raegor has finished with at least seven targets in back-to-back games.
Cam Sims rounds out this tier, and he’s logged at least eight targets in three of his past four games. One of those games did come with McLaurin out of the lineup, but two have come with McLaurin in the lineup. He shouldn’t command much ownership, which makes him an interesting option.
Quick Hits
- Defenses and Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format, and could be particularly appealing on the slate. The total sits at just 43.5 points, which suggests that touchdowns could be few and far between. The Eagles’ defense seems risky with a banged-up defensive line against a quarterback who protects the football, but the other three options have appeal at their current salaries.
- Steven Sims: $2,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – The other Sims has not been nearly as involved as Cam recently. He did have a solid game with McLaurin out of the lineup, but he posted 5.7 DraftKings points or fewer in each of the previous four games. He’s an interesting way to differentiate your lineups, but he doesn’t have much upside.
- Quez Watkins: $1,600 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel – As if the Eagles’ receiving corps wasn’t crowded enough, Watkins has emerged as a legit threat recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games despite playing just 40 total snaps, and he could see a boost in playing time with Jackson out of the lineup.
- Boston Scott: $1,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Scott is essentially a must-play tonight. Miles Sanders has already been ruled out, which means Scott should potentially step into a featured role. He has previously excelled in that situation, so this price tag is way too cheap. He’s currently projected for a Plus/Minus of +8.19 on DraftKings and +6.67 on FanDuel.
- Jordan Howard & Corey Clement – These should be the two backups behind Scott. Howard always remains a threat to plunge into the end zone, while Clement has some chops as a receiver out of the backfield. Neither player is really necessary on today’s slate – locking in Scott allows you to do basically whatever you want with the rest of your roster – but both have the potential to pay off their current salaries.
