NFL Week 12 features a Monday Night Football matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks starting at 8:15 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Russell Wilson at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,900 as opposed to $12,600.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
Wilson headlines today’s slate, and he’s put together a fantastic fantasy season in 2020. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his first 10 games, and his average of 26.81 fantasy points per game was the second-highest mark at the position entering Week 12.
That said, his production has declined a bit recently. He’s scored 20.08 and 12.92 DraftKings points in his past two starts, and the Seahawks have lost three of their past five games after starting the year 5-0.
Still, he stands out as the clear top option on today’s slate. He leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus projection. He also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Seahawks are implied for 27.75 points, and Wilson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.41 with a comparable mark (per the Trends tool).
Wilson’s top two pass catchers are also viable stud targets. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have alternated big games this season, and Lockett has been the better fantasy producer recently. He’s seen nine targets in back-to-back games, while Metcalf has seen just nine total targets over that time frame. With that in mind, Lockett seems like the better pure value since he’s nearly $2,000 cheaper on DraftKings and $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel.
Lockett also appears to own the better individual matchup in this contest. The Eagles have one good corner in Darius Slay, and he figures to shadow Metcalf. That leas Nickell Robey-Coleman to cover Lockett in the slot, which is a matchup that Lockett can definitely win. He owns a +32% edge vs. Robey-Coleman according to Pro Football Focus, which is the top mark on the slate.
Carson Wentz is the only player priced in the stud category for the Eagles, and he is the ultimate X-factor on this slate. He owns arguably the best pure matchup of all players in this contest. The Seahawks pass defense has been horrendous this season – they rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA – giving Wentz an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.7 on DraftKings. His salary of $10,400 in the flex is also very reasonable for a QB in the single-game format.
That said, Wentz’s playing time appears to be in flux. Jalen Hurts has been taking snaps at QB in practice this week, and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport is reporting that Hurts is going to play more QB in this contest at the expense of Wentz. That could mean Wentz is off the field for five snaps, but it could also mean that he’s off the field for 50. Ultimately, you’re going to need to make a stand on how you see the playing time shaking out between these two.
For what it’s worth, the Eagles’ offense and Wentz have been dreadful this season. Wentz has posted the lowest adjusted yards per attempt of his career, and he ranks just 34th among 36 QBs in that department this season. The Eagles rank just 30th in offensive DVOA, so they clearly need to do something to try and shake things up.
Midrange
Miles Sanders doesn’t benefit from the same excellent matchup as the Eagles’ passers, but he stands out at his current salary. He’s seen a large workload since returning to the lineup recently, logging at least 15 carries and five targets in each of his past two games. He hasn’t found the endzone, which has kept his fantasy value in check, but a big game is coming if he continues to see that many opportunities.
Chris Carson has missed each of the past four games for the Seahawks, but he’s set to make his return to the lineup tonight. He should step right back into a featured role, but his matchup vs. the Eagles isn’t great. They’ve been solid against the run this season, ranking 11th in rush defense DVOA, and Carson’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.2 on DraftKings is one of the worst marks on the slate.
Plenty of people are going to target Hurts in this price range, and it’s easy to see why. He’s basically the dream QB for analytics darlings. His PlayerProfiler page is downright sexy: He ranks in the 91st percentile or better in 40-yard dash time, Burst Score, college QBR, college YPA, and breakout age. It’s fair to question if his passing numbers were inflated by playing with elite playmakers at Alabama and Oklahoma, but this guy checks every box that you’re looking for from a fantasy quarterback.
As fun as it may be to play Hurts, I doubt he sees enough playing time to pay off his current salary. He’s definitely a reasonable play at $6,500 on FanDuel, but he’s simply too expensive at $7,200 on DraftKings unless you think he’s going to see the majority of the QB snaps.
Carlos Hyde is another player who seems too expensive on today’s slate. He had a nice run with Carson out of the lineup, but it seems unlikely that he can pay off his current price tag with Carson back in the rotation.
The next four players on the pricing spectrum are all Philly pass catchers: Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, and Greg Ward.
Fulgham broke out while the Eagles were decimated with injuries at the WR position, but his production has fallen off as they’ve started to get healthier. He’s logged just one catch in each of his past two contests.
That said, he’s still getting plenty of opportunities. He’s logged at least seven targets in two of the past three weeks, and he led the team with a 96% snap share last week. He has a winnable matchup this week vs. Shaquill Griffin, so this could be an excellent time to buy low on him.
Reagor has also been very involved in the Eagles’ passing game. He played on 93% of their offensive snaps last week, and his 12 targets over the past two weeks are identical to Fulgham’s.
Goedert has also seen 12 targets over the past two weeks, which ties all three players for the team lead. He’s coming off a great performance last week, finishing with five catches for 77 yards and a touchdown, but his matchup isn’t as good as some of his teammate’s. The Seahawks have struggled mightily against WRs this season, but Goedert owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.7 on DraftKings.
Finally, Ward is a clear No. 4 in this quartet, and he’s really not that much cheaper than the other options. He’s seen 10 targets over the past two weeks, but his targets are not the most valuable. He does most of his damage around the line of scrimmage, which gives him a significantly lower ceiling than guys like Fulgham and Raegor.
For the Seahawks, David Moore could provide some value if he’s in the lineup. He’s currently listed as questionable, and he was only able to get in two limited practices on Friday and Saturday.
Quick Hits
- Defenses and Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The total on this game has also dropped by 4.5 points since opening, so it could be lower scoring than expected.
- Will Dissly: $3,600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Dissly looks like a strong value option today. He played on a season-high 65% of the Seahawks’ offensive snaps last week, and that was with Greg Olsen playing on 61%. Olsen is out for at least the next four weeks, so Dissly has a chance to see even more playing time vs. the Eagles.
- Richard Rodgers: $1,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – Rodgers isn’t seeing a ton of playing time with Goedert back in the lineup, but he’s made the most of it recently. He’s finished at least 10.0 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, but he did get shut out three games ago.
- Alshon Jeffery: $1,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – Jeffery has plenty of name value for someone in this price range, but he hasn’t been a factor since returning to the Eagles’ rotation. He played just five snaps last week.
- Jacob Hollister: $1,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – Hollister is another player who should benefit from the injury to Olsen, and he’s actually seen more targets than Dissly recently despite playing fewer snaps.
- Boston Scott: $1,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – He’s serving as the clear backup to Sanders in the Eagles’ backfield, but he’s capable of doing damage with a small workload. He finished with 8.0 DraftKings points last week on just five carries and three targets and 14.4 DraftKings points in the week prior on four touches.
- Freddie Swain: $200 on DraftKings, $5,500 – Swain is also listed as questionable this week, but he’s dirt cheap and catches passes from Wilson. That’s good enough to warrant consideration if he’s active. If he’s out, give a bump to Dissly and Hollister in your rankings.
