NFL Week 7 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football contest between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Carson Wentz at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,200 as opposed to $10,800.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
There isn’t a ton of high-priced talent to choose from on today’s slate. Just three players are priced above $8,800 on DraftKings, and none of those players are sitting above $10,800.
Wentz is the most expensive player on the slate, but he’s had a pretty brutal start to the season. He’s thrown eight touchdowns compared to nine interceptions, and he’s also posted a career-low adjusted yards per attempt of 4.9.
That said, it’s hard to put all the blame on Wentz. He’s been playing behind a patchwork offensive line missing the majority of their starters and throwing to guys who started the year way down on the depth chart. Despite all that, Wentz has actually still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past four games.
This will also be arguably his best matchup to start the year. The Giants rank just 23rd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and 12th in adjusted sack rate, so they may not be able to exploit the Eagles’ weakness in that department. Wentz has been significantly worse under pressure this season, so giving him some additional time in the pocket should result in a better performance.
Overall, Wentz leads all players in median and ceiling projection in our NFL Models, and he also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus.
Daniel Jones leads the way for the Giants, and he has struggled to put up fantasy points this season. He’s scored 14.88 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past five games, which seems almost impossible to do in 2020. He ranks just 33rd among all QBs in terms of fantasy points per game this season, which puts him behind guys like Nick Foles, Sam Darnold, and Dwayne Haskins. What’s even scarier is that he’s rushed for at least 49 yards in three of his past four games, so his production as a passer has been downright dreadful.
Still, it’s hard to completely ignore him on at slate devoid of offensive talent. The Eagles do represent a fantastic matchup, ranking just 27th in pass defense DVOA this season. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.0, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
For as poor as the Giants’ offense has been, they actually have a pretty solid group of pass catchers. That said, Darius Slayton has emerged as the clear top option.
He’s logged at least seven targets in four of his first six games, and he has been highly involved in games where the Giants have actually managed to move the ball on offense. He has arguably the highest ceiling among the non-QBs on today’s slate.
Midrange
Travis Fulgham has gone from someone who was unknown in even the deepest dynasty leagues to someone who is relevant in every fantasy league over the past few weeks. He has stepped up for the depleted Eagles’ offense, recording at least 13.7 DraftKings points in each of the past three games. He’s been highly involved over the past two games in particularly, logging at least 10 targets and scoring a touchdown in both contests. Even with DeSean Jackson back in the lineup, Fulgham has clearly played his way into a starting role with this offense moving forward.
The only real concern is whether or not he’ll be matched up with James Bradberry. He’s been easily one of the best cornerbacks in football this season and has had his way with guys like Allen Robinson and Amari Cooper. Even if this isn’t a true “shadow” situation – I doubt Fulgham has earned that treatment after just three good games – he should still see him from time to time.
Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz were the two latest members of the Eagles to hit the injury report. That means Boston Scott should operate as the Eagles’ primary RB this week, but it remains to be seen just how valuable that role will be.
Scott led the team with a 58% snap share in Week 1 without Sanders, but he finished with just nine carries and two targets. That said, the Eagles’ offensive line was absolutely manhandled by Washington in that contest. They should be able to fare better against the Giants’ front seven, so Scott definitely has a rosier outlook that he did in his first game without Sanders. He absolutely torched the Giants with Sanders out of the lineup last season, finishing with 35.8 DraftKings points.
Scott is an absolute slam-dunk at just $6,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Evan Engram is priced in this range for the Giants, and he has yet to post a positive Plus/Minus this season. That’s not all that surprising considering how poorly Jones has played recently, but his five total targets over the past two games is definitely concerning. He has one of the best pure matchups on the slate – his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 is the highest mark in our NFL Models – but he’s hard to get behind given his lack of involvement recently.
Devonta Freeman might be the most appealing target for the Giants in this salary range. He has quietly emerged as their featured back, playing on 73% of their offensive snaps last week vs. Washington. He finished with 18 carries and two targets, and no other RB received a single carry for the Giants in that contest. The Eagles have been much more vulnerable vs. the pass than the run this season, but Freeman still stands out as one of the better values on the slate.
Sterling Shepard has missed the past four games with a toe injury, but he could make his return in this contest. He doesn’t have a ton of standalone value, but his presence on the field would take away from guys like Slayton, Engram, and Golden Tate. Fantasy owners should hope that he’s forced to sit out once again.
Finally, there are going to be people who play Jalen Hurts at $6,000 on DraftKings. Don’t be one of them. If you do feel the need to play the backup/wildcat QB, do it on FanDuel at $5,500 instead.
Values & Punts
- DeSean Jackson: $5,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – Jackson has the potential to step into a large workload in his first game back from injury. He should also see some of Bradberry in this contest, but he’s capable of paying off his currently salary with just one play.
- Richard Rodgers: $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Rodgers should be asked to step up at TE with Ertz and Dallas Goedert both out of the lineup. That said, the Giants have been solid against TEs this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.4 on DraftKings.
- Greg Ward: $4,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – Ward is someone who could be a bit overlooked with Jackson back in the lineup, but he has easily the best matchup among the Eagles’ WRs. Bradberry very rarely travels into the slot – he’s played just nine percent of his snaps there this season – which is where Ward does the majority of his damage.
- Kickers & Defenses: These options are always in play in the single game format, and this is a slate where they could have more viability than usual.
- Corey Clement: $5,200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel – I don’t have a ton of interest in Clement on DraftKings, but he’s a nice option at just $5,000 on FanDuel. He played nearly 40% of the snaps without Sanders in Week 1 and is capable of catching passes out of the backfield.
