Well, this is going to get ugly. The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles travel for an inter-conference battle with the one-win Houston Texans. As expected, bettors can’t get enough of the Eagles, moving this line 4.5 points off the opening, with the NFC East frontrunners currently priced as 14-point favorites. Although the contest may be underwhelming, we’ve highlighted a trio of player props worth investing in as Week 9 action gets underway.
As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
Get $1000 No-Sweat Bet For MNF!
Eagles vs. Texans Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Dallas Goedert Any Time Touchdown Scorer +190
The Eagles are prone to offensive outbursts, compiling the third-most yards and points per game. Contrarily, the Texans’ defense is on the opposite end of the spectrum, trotting out the third-worst total defense in the NFL. There will be offensive fireworks on Thursday, and Dallas Goedert will get a piece of the pie.
Although Jalen Hurts has many elite options to distribute the ball to, he’s starting to look Goedert’s way more consistently. Philadelphia’s tight end was targeted more than four times once through the team’s first three games. Since then, he’s accumulated six or more targets in four straight.
According to the ScoreAndOdds projections, that contributes to Goedert’s advantage as an anytime touchdown scorer, which is validated by the Eagles’ offensive schemes.
Philadelphia has been inside the red zone 27 times through seven games, which has been its bread and butter all season. Even though they have Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown as potential deep threats, they’re still running 76.3% of their plays in the short (0-9 yards) to medium (10-19) yards. Moreover, 45.7% of those plays go to the middle of the field.
That play calling aligns with Goedert’s strengths. The former second-round pick has yet to run a deep route this season and plays most of his snaps in-line, making him an ideal red-zone target for Hurts. We’re betting Goedert finds pay dirt against the Texans on that basis.
Dallas Goedert Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
The Goedert love doesn’t end there, as we highlight another player prop worth backing ahead of Thursday Night Football at NRG Stadium.
As noted, Goedert has become more of a focus for Hurts in the Eagles’ offense, earning a more substantive target share over his recent sample. Since the start of October, Goedert has been targeted 23.3% of the time, up from 14.3% through the first three games of the season. That’s resulted in increased production, a trend we expect to continue in Houston.
Over his last four games, Hurts has thrown Goedert’s way 27 times, with the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit hauling in 21 of those passes. That has resulted in increased yards and receptions per game, with Goedert equaling or surpassing 64 receiving yards in three of four.
Increased usage amplifies Goedert’s production, and there are no signs of him letting up. Per the ScoreAndOdds algorithm, there’s a significant advantage in taking over Goedert’s 46.5 receiving yards prop.
Dameon Pierce Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
A glass-half-empty perspective on the Texans is that they continue to flounder as one of the worst franchises in the league. The glass-half-full angle is that Houston has some solid building blocks for the future and is getting much-needed reps for their up-and-comers. Among those is Dameon Pierce, who has jumped to the front of the pack in the Offensive Rookie of the Year futures market.
The Texans have turned to their rookie running back more frequently over the past few weeks, feeding Pierce the ball 15 or more times in six straight games. The fourth-round pick has flourished with the increased workload, eclipsing 69 rushing yards in five of those six outings while averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
Thursday night’s encounter against the Eagles sets up as an ideal bounce-back spot for Pierce after last week’s disappointing 35 rushing yard effort, in which he averaged just 2.3 yards per carry. Given his work distribution and improved play, we expect a more robust performance at home against an Eagles defense on short rest.
That advantage is also reflected in our projections, which support that Pierce is a strong candidate to go over his rushing yard prop. The Texans have unlocked Pierce’s potential, and there’s no slowing down now.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
As you can see, there’s an advantage in parlaying the three above-noted props in the SameGame Parlay. The ScoreAndOdds projections imply that this wager should come with a +488 price tag, whereas FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging the parlay at +685. From an implied probability perspective, that leaves bettors with a 5.9% advantage worth playing on Thursday Night Football.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Understanding Ceiling Projections for NFL DFS Tournaments
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs
Steelers-Browns Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, More, Using Parlay IQ for Thursday Night Football
Week 4 NFL DFS Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
