It all comes down to this—Super Bowl LVII to decide the NFL Champion.
The Kansas City Chiefs have built a dynasty with Patrick Mahomes under center. This a recipe the Philadelphia Eagles are trying to emulate with Jalen Hurts and their young nucleus. Both teams have excelled offensively, ranking top two in points per game throughout the season (playoffs included). Surely, those metrics will inflate further as the Eagles and Chiefs stand toe-to-toe, exchanging offensive haymakers.
These juggernauts collide in what’s sure to be a classic iteration of the biggest game of the year.
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As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Super Bowl Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
Hurts is the horsepower that drives the Eagles offense. The former second-round pick had a banner year, setting new benchmarks in virtually every category and resulting in a second-place showing in the MVP race. Still, Hurts could get the last laugh by knocking off the MVP-winning Mahomes in Super Bowl LVII, but he’ll have to use his legs to do so.
The Chiefs defense has struggled at times this year, and limiting the rush has been a shortcoming since the early part of the campaign. After giving up just 65.8 rushing yards per game through the first four weeks of the season, the Chiefs have stumbled, allowing an average of 118.3 since then.
Worse, they’ve failed to harness in quarterbacks and let some relatively stationary pivots torch them this postseason. Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence averaged just 16.1 and 17.1 rushing yards per game and went off for 30 and 26, respectively.
Mobility is a hallmark of Hurts’ success. The Eagles signal-caller has averaged 50.7 yards per game via the run this year and isn’t afraid to take off. Hurts has hit double-digit carries in eight contests and has surpassed 60 rushing yards in four of his last eight appearances.
We’re playing the advantage outlined in the ScoreAndOdds algorithm and taking over 49.5 on Hurts’ rushing prop.
Patrick Mahomes Under 19.5 Rushing Yards
Typically, high-ankle sprains take months to resolve, leaving Mahomes well short of the normal healing time for his injury. We saw how limited he was after hurting his ankle against the Jacksonville Jaguars, following that up by staying in the pocket against the Cincinnati Bengals. Don’t expect him to push the envelope against the Eagles’ vaunted pass rush.
Since going down with the ankle ailment in the Divisional Round, Mahomes has rushed the ball just six times for 16 yards. But even before that, we were seeing a more conservative approach from the recently crowned MVP.
Mahomes has carried the ball more than three times, just twice since Week 12. Moreover, he’s failed to eclipse nine rushing yards in six of those outings, averaging a paltry 12.5 yards per game.
Further, Mahomes should anticipate pressure coming from all angles against the Eagles. Philadelphia leads the league with 4.1 sacks per game (including playoffs) and should have no problems containing a hobbled Mahomes.
With a plethora of scoring options, there’s no need for the Chiefs to force the issue with Mahomes. It’s evident Andy Reid is taking a cautious approach with their franchise cornerstone. Mahomes should be content to sit back in the pocket and fan the ball out to his skilled players. As such, we’re betting Mahomes stays under 19.5 rushing yards.
Over 50.5
This year’s Super Bowl features two of the best offensive teams in the league. The Eagles and Chiefs feature dynamic playmakers and MVP-caliber quarterbacks, which should facilitate this one going over the 50.5-point total.
The Chiefs’ ability to move the ball downfield is matched only by their scoring finesse. The AFC Champions led the NFL with 407.9 yards per game and tied for the league lead with 28.7 points per game. They face the team they are tied with in Sunday’s finale.
With its recent performances, Philadelphia has matched the Chiefs’ scoring output, recording 28.7 points per game. Further, they’ve also nearly matched Kansas City’s production. The Eagles rank second in yards per game and sit just a few yards shy of the 400-yard per game threshold.
Additionally, both teams have their own defensive inefficiencies. Although the Eagles kept the San Francisco 49ers at bay in the NFC Championship, they were only tasked with limiting a fourth-string quarterback. They also let opponents run roughshod, giving up an average of 121.7 rushing yards per game over their last seven.
As previously noted, the Chiefs have similar deficiencies and could be exposed by Hurts and the stable of Eagles running backs.
Scoring will be at the forefront of this year’s Super Bowl as both teams let their superstars go to work. That’s reflected in our algorithm, which shows an advantage in taking the over on Sunday.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
As usual, there’s an edge to playing this three-leg wager on the Same Game Parlay. According to our projections, combining the three picks should yield a +334 price tag; however, FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging a more intriguing +524. Don’t pass up that value.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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