The Defense and Kicker Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, so far this season defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (66 teams) have averaged 10.09 points with a +1.93 Plus/Minus and 7.9 percent average ownership, while defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (88 teams) have averaged 9.30 points with a +1.88 Plus/Minus and 6.8 percent average ownership. Approaching the final weeks of the regular season, paying up for defenses continues to be more valuable on DraftKings.
The Big Two Defenses
- Jacksonville ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
- LA Chargers ($4,00 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Big Cats on the Prowl
A couple of weeks ago, I detailed how the Jacksonville Jaguars are on a historic run for fantasy defenses. Since that time, the Jaguars D/ST dropped 25 points on Cleveland and put up their typical double-digit number against Arizona. They are currently on pace to be the highest-scoring and most valuable (in terms of Plus/Minus) fantasy defense of the last four seasons. Jacksonville is averaging 14.55 points per game (PPG) with a +6.58 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +7.26 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. That’s #good.
This week, the Jaguars host the Colts as 10-point favorites in #Sacksonville, where we have them projected for a slate-high 4.9 sacks. In case you’ve forgotten, the last time these two teams played (about a month ago), the Jaguars registered 10 sacks. That’s also #good. Per Football Outsiders, Indianapolis is the worst pass-protecting offensive line in the league, allowing a league-high 11.5 percent adjusted sack rate. Jacksonville leads the NFL in sacks (41) and sack percentage (10.2 percent) so this game sets up as another smash spot for the Jags defense. The Colts will have their hands full with Calais Campbell, who ranks third in the league with 11.5 sacks, and Yannick Ngakoue, who is sixth with 10.
Powder Blues
The Los Angeles Chargers have the distinct pleasure of hosting the Cleveland Browns as slate-high 14-point favorites. So far this season defenses playing the Browns have averaged a league-high 13.0 PPG with a +4.99 Plus/Minus and 72.7 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings. On FanDuel, the Browns have allowed opposing defenses to score 12.58 PPG (only the Broncos have allowed more) with a +5.21 Plus/Minus and 75.0 percent Consistency Rating. It’s safe to say the Chargers’ matchup is a good one. Additionally, the Chargers defense is playing at a high level with eight forced turnovers and three defensive touchdowns in the past two weeks. They are currently the top-rated FanDuel defense in some of our Pro Models.
The Chargers have two of the best pass rushers in the league — Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram — who have combined for 19 sacks. Overall the Chargers defense ranks fifth with a 7.8 percent sack rate. The Browns offensive line has allowed the 11th-highest adjusted sack rate (7.6 percent) in the league. Sounds like another delicious recipe for sacks pie, which is why we currently have the Chargers defense projected for the second-most sacks (4.4) on the main slate. If sacks aren’t your thing, the Chargers have two players (Tre Boston and Casey Hayward) tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions each.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
Arizona Cardinals ($2,200 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel): The Cardinals are cheap on both sites, have a top-five projected sack total (3.2), and are projected to be low-owned, which makes them intriguing for guaranteed prize pools. The Cardinals are 7.0-point underdogs at home against the Rams so they’re not a safe play, but their sack potential could translate into a defensive score.
Miami Dolphins ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): As mentioned earlier, only the Broncos have allowed more points to opposing defenses (13.15) on FanDuel than the Browns, and this week Miami draws the lucky Denver straw. The Broncos offensive line owns the fourth-worst adjusted sack rate in the league (8.8 percent), and quarterback Trevor Siemian, who’s not very good when healthy, reportedly has the flu this week.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
Greg Zuerlein ($5,300) is back atop the kicking salary spectrum this week, and we project him to be quite chalky. Zuerlein and the Rams take on the Cardinals as 7.0-point home favorites. Home kickers comparable in price and Vegas data have historically averaged 9.20 PPG and a +0.82 Plus/Minus with a 50.7 percent Consistency Rating. Zuerlein hasn’t played many games that fit this trend, but in the five games he’s had a salary of at least $5,000 he’s scored 10.2 PPG with a +1.78 Plus/Minus. Zuerlein has scored double-digit FanDuel points in five of his past six games.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Stephen Gostkowski ($5,200): The Patriots-Bills game in Buffalo currently has the highest total (48.5) on the slate, and Gostkowski leads all kickers with a median projection of 12.7 points. In seven road games against the AFC East since 2014, Gostkowski has averaged 10.0 PPG and a +1.45 Plus/Minus with a 57.1 percent Consistency Rating.
Josh Lambo ($4,600): Lambo owns the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate (4.78), and he is tied with Gostowski for the highest median point projection (12.7). You should use our Lineup Builder to make a bunch of Lambo and Jaguars D/ST stacks.
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Good luck, and research the Week 13 games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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