The Defense and Kicker Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (78 teams) have averaged 10.08 points with a +1.88 Plus/Minus and 8.1 percent average ownership so far this season, while defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (100 teams) have averaged 9.00 points with a +1.58 Plus/Minus and 6.8 percent average ownership. With three weeks left in the regular season, paying up for defenses continues to be slightly more valuable on DraftKings.
The Big Two Defenses
- Jacksonville ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
- Baltimore ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Big Cats on the Prowl
As stated in this column for the past several weeks, the Jacksonville Jaguars are on a historic run. They are currently on pace to be the highest-scoring and most valuable (in terms of Plus/Minus) fantasy defense of the past four seasons. Jacksonville has averaged 13.9 points per game (PPG) with a +5.77 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +6.48 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Next up for the Jaguars is a Texans team implied to score a slate-low 14.5 points as 10.5-point underdogs in #Sacksonville. Since 2014, defenses playing teams implied to score 15 points or less have averaged 11.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) with a +3.09 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 12.0 FPPG with a +4.00 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Twenty-six percent of those defenses scored more than 15 fantasy points, and the Jaguars dropped 25 on Cleveland in a comparable spot last month. Jacksonville’s D/ST salary was owned at nearly 25 percent on DraftKings in that game against Cleveland and we have them projected for similar ownership this week in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The Jaguars lead the NFL with a 4.4 percent interception rate and a 9.9 percent sack rate. Houston’s offensive line has allowed the sixth-highest adjusted sack rate (8.4 percent) in the league this season, and they will starting third-string quarterback T.J. Yates.
The Defense Playing Cleveland
Another team currently on pace to average more FanDuel points per game than any other previously, the Baltimore Ravens travel to Cleveland to play the Browns as hefty 7.5-point favorites. So far this season defenses playing the Browns have averaged a delicious 12.3 FPPG with a +4.23 Plus/Minus and 69.2 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings and 12.0 FPPG with a +4.61 Plus/Minus and 71.4 percent Consistency on FanDuel. It’s safe to say the Ravens’ matchup is a good one. Additionally, the Ravens defense has recorded at least three sacks in five of its past six games, during which time it has also accumulated 10 interceptions and three defensive touchdowns. Baltimore is currently the top-rated DraftKings defense in the Bales Model.
Per Football Outsiders, Cleveland allows sacks at the ninth-highest adjusted rate in the league (7.8 percent), while Baltimore’s D ranks eighth in adjusted sack rate (7.9 percent). This is what Hump calls another delicious recipe for sacks pie. In addition their ability to pressure the QB, the Ravens lead the NFL in total interceptions (20) and are tied with the Jaguars for the best interception rate (4.4 percent) in the league.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
New Orleans Saints ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): For some strange reason, The Saints are priced equal to or below 10 other teams on FanDuel, where they have a slate-high 99 percent Bargain Rating. The Saints are currently massive 16-point home favorites against Bryce Petty, who has completed 2 of 9 attempts this season and piled up seven interceptions and 13 sacks in six games (four of them starts) last season. The Jets’ offensive line has allowed the second-worst adjusted sack rate in the league this season (9.4 percent). New Orleans has averaged 12.6 FPPG with a 5.45 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +5.88 Plus/Minus on FanDuel as a home favorite this season.
Carolina Panthers ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel): The Panthers are tied for third overall with 40 total sacks, and they currently own Football Outsiders’ highest adjusted sack rate (9.5 percent). Carolina is a modest 2.5-point favorite at home against a Packers team that allows the third-highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL (9.2 percent). The return of Aaron Rodgers will likely lead to Carolina being low-owned — we have them projected around 1 percent on both sites — despite us having them projected for the most sacks (4.2) on the slate.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
Greg Zuerlein ($5,300) maintains his spot atop the kicking salary spectrum this week, although we have him projected at just 5-8 percent ownership in Seattle. Zuerlein and the Rams take on the Seahawks as 2-point road underdogs in a game with the second-highest total (47.5) on the main slate. Opposing kickers in Seattle have averaged 7.71 FPPG and a -0.28 Plus/Minus with a 42.9 percent Consistency Rating this season. But in six games on the road this season, Zuerlein has scored 14.17 FPPG with a +5.78 Plus/Minus and he was priced at $5,200 or higher in four of those games.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Robbie Gould ($4,500): The 49ers-Titans game in San Francisco currently has the fifth-highest total (44.0) on the slate, and Gould has our highest projected Plus/Minus (+5.17) and median points projection (13.0).
Will Lutz ($5,200): You probably should use our Lineup Builder to make a bunch of Lutz and Saints D/ST stacks. The Saints are implied to score a slate-high 31.5 points against the Jets, and Lutz has our fourth-highest median points projection (12.4).
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Good luck, and be sure to research the Week 14 games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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