The PGA Weekend Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for the DraftKings weekend slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
It’s the weekend at The Open, so grab a pint and enjoy yourself.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
The Big Dogs
Brooks Koepka ($8,900): Koepka’s 14.9 Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (LT Adj Bird Avg) ranks 11th in this field, and his Recent Adj Bird Avg of 17.5 is sixth. Moreover, Koepka recently beast-moded at the U.S. Open, when he shot rounds of 68 and 67 on the weekend. Brooks has plenty of experience on links golf thanks to his years playing on the European Tour, and he looked amazing on Thursday. Koepka has been playing lights out as of late: His 67.0 Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) leads the field this week, and at three under par, he’ll need to be aggressive if he expects to win back-to-back majors.
Rory McIlroy ($8,700): McIlroy rebounded from a shaky Thursday round with an impressive 68 on Friday thanks to four birdies in very tough conditions. Despite his less than stellar play recently — Rory’s Recent Adj Rd Score has ballooned to an ugly 70.9 — McIlroy is tied for second in the field with his 15.7 LT Adj Bird Avg. Both Rory’s LT and Recent Greens In Regulation (GIR) percentages are well over 65 percent, but he has managed to hit just 50 percent of fairways and greens through the first two rounds at Royal Birkdale. Per our PGA Ownership Dashboard, McIlroy is owned at a laughably-low 6.32 percent in DraftKings’ Milly Maker, although I do expect his ownership to increase in weekend contests.
The Chaser
Charley Hoffman ($7,600): Hoffman starts the weekend at even par and six behind Jordan Spieth‘s lead. Hoffman’s whopping 19.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg is second-best among golfers who made the cut this week. This week, Hoffman has managed to make eight birdies and an eagle while hitting only 50 percent of GIR, but Charley’s Recent 71.8 GIR percentage suggests that he could find himself in line for a whole lot more birdie putts this weekend. Importantly, Hoffman has shot 69 or lower in four of his last six weekend rounds.
The Early Bird
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,300): Fleetwood was pretty chalky in Thursday contests (17.98 percent in the Milly Maker), but he played horribly on Thursday, which could suppress his weekend ownership. According to legend, Fleetwood’s dad still walks his dogs on the course, and the membership at Royal Birkdale handed Fleetwood a bill this week for all the times he snuck on the course as a kid. A one-under 69 on Friday helped Fleetwood make the weekend on the cut number, and an epic weekend round for the local boy would be #NarrativeStreet at its finest. Tommy’s stellar 67.5 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks second to only Koepka’s, and his 17.8 Recent Adj Bird Avg is fifth. Also encouraging: Fleetwood’s Recent Driving Accuracy (DA) percentage is 75.5 (compiled in his last four tournaments), but he has hit only 50 percent of fairways this week. Fleetwood is in the first pairing off tomorrow at 9:30 am.
One Under One
Joe Dean ($6,800): Speaking of locals, 23-year-old Englishman Joe Dean will more than likely be owned at less than one percent in weekend contests. The EuroPro Tour player (a step below the Euro Challenge Tour) starts the weekend 11 shots off the lead at four-over par, but he has managed seven birdies in the first two rounds despite hitting less than 50 percent of fairways and GIR. He will surely make his fare share of bogeys, but if he can increase his accuracy off the tee and approach, expecting a birdie barrage from Dean is not unreasonable. He reminds me of Kevin Tway, but with an British accent.
