The PGA Weekend Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi Oi Oi!
A former champion of this event, Adam Scott ($8,700) was leading the tournament at six-under par on Thursday with two holes to play. Two double bogeys later, Scott finished the day with a two-under par 70. Up until that gruesome finish, Scott had zero bogeys and six birdies in the round. That finish was bad for Scott but good for those wanting to play him in DraftKings Weekend games. Scott’s second round was a mixed bag with four bogeys and four birdies, but he enters the weekend in prime chasing position.
Per our DFS Ownership Dashboard, Scott had the second-highest ownership (53.33 percent) in the $5,300 Thunderdome, so he is a player the sharps like. Scott can make birdies at an elite level: He is tied for 11th in the field with his 14.9 Long-Term Adjusted Birdies Per Tournament (LT Adj Bird Avg).
Suit and Tie
Justin Timberlake left it “all on the floor tonight” in Suit & Tie, and Justin Thomas ($8,900) left it all on the course today with a wild round that culminated in an amazing finish. Thomas dug himself a serious hole with four bogeys and one double-bogey on the front nine that left him at four-over par heading into the final nine holes on Friday. JT promptly birdied the first three holes on the home stretch and finished with another improbable birdie on his final hole to get his score to even par, ensuring his spot for the weekend.
If it weren’t for playing 11 holes over-par in the first two rounds, Thomas would likely be leading this tournament. He has accumulated 10 birdies — including two streaks of three — and an eagle through the first two rounds. As an added bonus, JT has some serious weekend swag at TPC Sawgrass: He has carded a seven-under par 65 during the tournament’s final two rounds in each of the last two years.
The Bump and Run
Choke up and take a narrow stance.
Don’t overthink it this week. There are some elite birdie-makers who are chasing the leader. Get them in your lineup.
Dustin Johnson ($10,200): One of the top golfers in the Bales Player Model, Johnson has both the third-highest LT Adj Bird Avg at 17.0 and LT Adjusted Eagles Per Tournament at 0.7. DJ is the best golfer roaming the face of the earth currently, and last week he made the cut on the number and lost by one stroke after shooting a combined 10-under par on the weekend. Johnson has shot under-par in seven of his last eight rounds on the weekend.
Rory McIlroy ($9,900): A birdie-making gawd, McIlroy leads the field with a robust 17.5 LT Adj Bird Avg. Three of Rory’s four most recent weekend rounds at TPC Sawgrass have been under par.
Rickie Fowler ($9,000): Fowler’s robust 21.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg leads the field, and his 66.7 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks third. When Fowler won this tournament in 2015 he went six-under par on the weekend.
Henrik Stenson ($8,800): Henrik made the weekend, and the chances of him withdrawing grow slimmer with each passing hour. He piled up six birdies in Friday’s round, and his 15.6 LT Adj Bird Avg is sixth in the field.
Brooks Koepka ($8,600): After shooting a three-under par 69 on Friday, Koepka heads into the weekend in excellent stalking position. His 66.9 Recent Adj Rd Score ranks sixth, and he’s tied for second overall with a chunky 20.0 Recent Adj Bird Avg. Brooks has been under par in all four of his most recent weekend rounds, shooting a combined 13-under par.
Russell Henley ($7,800): Henley shot a three-over par 75 on Thursday but rebounded nicely on Friday with a four-under round that included three birdies and an eagle. Importantly, Henley has shot four rounds under 70 in his last six weekend rounds: His 18.3 Recent Adj Bird Avg is the fourth-best score in the field.
