While most daily fantasy players are more familiar with the usual salary-cap structure, DraftKings also has tournaments in a pick ’em style: There are no player salaries, and you simply select one player across the eight tiers.
Here’s a breakdown of the DraftKings Tiers slate for Week 9 of the NFL season.
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Tier 1: Elite Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
With 26 touchdowns and 2,526 yards, Mahomes is on pace to record the third 50-touchdown season and the 10th 5,000-yard season. He’s averaging 30.5 fantasy points per game, which is five more points than the next passer in Tier 1.
After a full practice on Wednesday, Tyreek Hill is expected to play. Hill’s injury aside, there’s no reason to fade Mahomes now.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Our Models have a darling this week and his name is Cam Newton. The Panthers’ quarterback is the highest projected player in the Models and is a favorite of the Wednesday edition of The Action Network NFL Podcast.
Newton is setting career marks in efficiency under offensive coordinator Norv Turner:
- 66.4% completion percentage
- 1.7% interception rate
He’s also above his career average in average yards per attempt and touchdown rate.
Add in his league-leading expected points from rushing, and Newton is the best pivot from Mahomes this week.
Tier 2: The Battle in New Orleans
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Brees has the highest floor of any passer on the week and returns home, where he historically excels (per our Trends Tool):
Drew Brees at Home
The Saints’ defense has held five of seven opponents to less than 25 points. This has kept Brees’ usage to a minimum, but when he throws, he’s still money. Brees’ 5.8% touchdown is still above his career average. Expect this trend to change with the Rams’ implied total of 30.5.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Goff is highlighted by a slate-leading 10 Pro Trends in his matchup with the Saints. He also comes in as a top-five play in our Models. The Rams’ rising 29.5-point implied score makes Goff an interesting play.
Todd Gurley also makes his return to Tiers this week. He and Goff have a -.01 correlation, making a stack likely unsuccessful. Goff should be viewed as a risky pivot from Gurley while still providing exposure to the Rams offense.
Tier 3: Elite Flexes
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
With Adam Thielen breaking records and Gurley returning to Tier 3, Hopkins will be a forgotten play here despite ranking third in the NFL in air yards and fifth in targets.
Playing primarily on the outside, Hopkins should avoid coverage from Chris Harris Jr. in Denver, Pro Football Focus’ third-ranked corner. Hopkins is the perfect pivot from a top-heavy tier in terms of ownership.
Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Gurley has scored 25 points in every game this season and has hit 30 in four consecutive games. His 47 red-zone attempts and 13 targets lead all backs. Both marks also have the potential to be historic.
Todd Gurley has 47 red zone attempts and 13 targets. The @RotoViz screener app goes back to the year of our lord 2000 and both are on pace to be NFL records in that time frame. (Targets record is specific to RB's)
— Kyle Dvorchak (@ffkylethekid) November 1, 2018
In a game with a historic total, Gurley is a lock in cash yet again.
Tier 4: Betting on Volume
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Jones does not hold the record for receiving yards without a touchdown … yet. (He’s 151 yards away.) When he does score, we will be there.
Jones has the volume of someone who does score: He leads the league with 1,140 air yards despite already having a bye. Atlanta plays Washington this week and the line has already moved one point in the Falcons’ direction. The over has also hit in five of Atlanta’s past seven games.
Continue to bet on a Julio score. It has to pay off one day.
Bob Donnan – USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
McCaffrey is averaging more than 100 total yards and 19.4 touches per game. This week he faces the Bucs, who allow running backs to score on 4.8% of their carries, which is the highest rate in the league. They also allow running backs to score on 5.9% of their targets, good for fifth in the league.
With an increased chance to find the end zone, McCaffrey is teeming with upside.
Tier 5: High-Upside Plays
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
Thomas is projected as the top-scoring receiver of the tier. Despite a few down weeks, his share of the Saints’ offense has remained high:
- 39% market share of air yards
- 25% market share of targets
He also has a .48 correlation with Brees, making the Brees-Thomas stack a viable option in tournaments and cash games.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Hunt has been targeted six times and caught five of them in three consecutive weeks. In his first four games, he caught five total passes. Per usual, he’s been a mainstay of the Chiefs’ ground game as well, with 134 carries through eight weeks, which is good for second in the league.
Cleveland gives up the eighth-most points to opposing backs and Kansas City has an implied score of 29.75. Hunt is a safe bet to score for his seventh straight game, be it through the air or on the ground.
Tier 6: Receivers Galore
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos
Sanders could have to take an even larger role in the offense following the Demaryius Thomas trade. Thomas had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 10.9; Sanders had a similar 9.5 aDOT. Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick both have aDOT’s greater than 14.
Expect Sanders to improve on his already impressive 22% target share for the foreseeable future. Fantasy points will follow.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns
Only Hopkins and Julio command more of their teams’ targets than Landry, who owns a 30% target share. Landry and the Browns host the Chiefs and their 26th-ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
The Kansas City defense also struggles outside Arrowhead Stadium:
- Chiefs defense at home, 2015-18: 16.7 PPG allowed, 227 pass yards
- On the road: 23.6 PPG, 268.8 pass yards
Buy Landry’s volume against a vulnerable road defense.
Tier 7: Volume is King
John Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Jones is the only player to top Brown’s 1,122 Air Yards. Brown could be the only deep threat who is used on a weekly basis.
List of players with 30+ targets and a higher aDOT than John Brown:
*crickets*
List of players with more Air Yards than John Brown:
Julio Jones
Brown is a situational deep threat that finds a new situation every week.— Kyle Dvorchak (@ffkylethekid) November 1, 2018
This week he faces the Steelers, who are tied for the highest aDOT allowed to opposing wide receivers. Brown’s skill set matches up well with how teams are attacking Pittsburgh, making him a premier tournament play.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington
Aside from the Saints game, in which he played sparingly due to an injury, Peterson has averaged 20.5 carries per game. Chris Thompson has also been sitting out of practice this week, leaving his usability in doubt. Should he miss or not be fully healed, Peterson will also get a shot at more receiving work.
Based on volume, Peterson is a safe cash play.
Tier 8: Low-End Flexes
Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
After trading Golden Tate, Golladay will now compete with Marvin Jones to lead the Lions in targets. Tate’s departure opens up 9.9 targets per game, and Golladay has been the more efficient receiver between he and Jones: Golladay . averages 11 yards per target to Jones’ 8.2.
Golladay could be the highest-owned player in this tier, making him more serviceable in cash lineups.
Kenyan Drake, RB, Miami Dolphins
Drake hasn’t been given the full rushing workload in Miami, but he’s been utilized as a receiver. His 110 air yards rank third among all running backs. Only Danny Amendola has more targets on the Dolphins than Drake.
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite over the Jets as of writing (see live odds here). If Miami gets an early lead, Drake will get lots of work against a below-average DVOA defense.
Pictured above: Todd Gurley
Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
