I’m an avid learner. I spend a large amount of my time researching each week’s NFL slate of games by reading everything from strategy pieces, weekly matchups, and value plays. When I’m on the road, I’m listening to the 20-some podcasts that I’m subscribed to, trying to absorb as much information I can. I try to pick up as much information as I can from a variety of sources in order to make the best lineup decisions possible.
I’ve also been spending a lot of time analyzing the top rosters that place in DraftKings Millionaire Maker contests each week. This probably isn’t news to most of you, but their lineups rarely consist of “conventional wisdom,” often utilizing contrarian lines of thinking in their roster construction. For example, last week triple stacking the likes of Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, and Tyler Lockett paid off handsomely as the trio combined for just shy of 100 total points. Avoiding the crowd that was heavy on the Tampa Bay and Steelers passing attacks last week and pivoting to Doug Martin and DeAngelo Williams, was another shrewd move that paid off. We’ve seen multiple times this season that these types of contrarian moves have helped lineups deviate from the masses and score big.
Being contrarian doesn’t always mean rostering the boom-or-bust player, i.e. Ted Ginn Jr, it could simply mean pivoting off the masses to an ancillary play that’s also in a great matchup. I was listening to Fantasy Labs’ co-founder Jonathan Bales on The Daily Fantasy Football Edge during my drive to work this morning and heard him describing how he applies anti-fragility to his roster construction. By looking at the chalk and figuring out if those players don’t have things break their way, how can you pivot and win off the chalk’s mediocrity/failure? It’s something I’m going to actively keep in mind when building lineups this week after seeing just how successful those plays were in Week 14.
Taking a look at Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus (which is the player’s projected points minus salary-based expected points) we can see which players — if everything goes right for them — have the best chance of highly exceeding their expected score and skyrocketing you up GPP leaderboards. We typically utilize stacks more commonly in GPPs, as they have the potential to vault your score above the competition if both players hit, subsequently leading to big payouts. If we pair two players with positive correlation and both players have a high Projected Plus/Minus, well, now we’re on to something.
Here’s a look at some possible DraftKings GPP stacks to utilize in Week 15 and their corresponding Plus/Minus’, available here.
1. Matthew Stafford (QB) and Calvin Johnson (WR)
It takes some fearlessness to roster Matthew Stafford this year — he has only three top-12 fantasy performances to date on the season — but he faces a New Orleans secondary that has allowed multiple touchdowns to each quarterback they’ve faced not named Jameis Winston or Brandon Weedon. Stafford has been a ridiculously efficient quarterback in the red zone this season, throwing 21 touchdowns and zero interceptions while defensively, New Orleans has struggled.
The Saints have allowed the most red zone trips to opposing teams in the league at 4.2 per game. Detroit leads the league in passing play percentage — 66.75% of the time they’re throwing — and with New Orleans’ pace of play ranking in the top three, that should lead to plenty of volume opportunities for Stafford.
Our projections have Stafford putting up the fourth-most fantasy points this week at 23.2 points, with a ceiling of 34.8 points. His Projected Plus/Minus of +8.4 is the second-highest of all quarterbacks this week and he has nine different Pro Trends leaning in his favor this week. Going up against a Saints defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and rank last according to FootballOutsiders’ Pass DVOA, Stafford should be in line for a productive outing in Week 15 with a high ceiling within his grasp.
Stacking Stafford with his best weapon in Calvin Johnson makes for a no-brainer this week. I’d be willing to guess that despite the nice matchup against the Saints, some will hesitate towards selecting Megatron after back to back subpar games. Prior to that, Johnson had caught at least five catches and 80 yards in six straight games, during which he had two 30-point performances. He enters this week squaring up against the dreadful Brandon Browner, who has been getting burned repeatedly all season. Johnson enters the week with the fifth-highest projection (20.2 fantasy points) and ceiling (27.3 fantasy points) among all wide receivers. He also owns the 14th-highest Projected Plus/Minus of +3.8. With Megatron seeing a healthy 26.7% of the team’s red zone target market share, look for him and Stafford to rejuvenate some of that magic they had on Thanksgiving Day where they hooked up for three touchdowns.
2. Carson Palmer (QB) and Michael Floyd (WR)
Carson Palmer is playing lights out this season and next up on the docket is a trip to Philadelphia, who has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns on the season. Palmer ranks second in both passing yards and passing touchdowns on the year, and he looks like he’s masterfully learned all the nuances of Bruce Arian’s offense.
Palmer’s projected for the third-most fantasy points among quarterbacks this week at 24.0 fantasy points, along with the third-highest ceiling (36.0). His Projected Plus/Minus of +7.0 is the fifth-highest of all quarterbacks and he has seven Pro Trends entering this contest. The Eagles are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season – Palmer looks to have one of the best matchups on this week’s slate.
Differentiating yourself from the crowd by stacking Palmer with Michael Floyd could make for a unique lineup construction. While most of the crowd favors either Larry Fitzgerald or John Brown, it’s actually been Michael Floyd who’s both been setting himself apart from the pack statistically and just so happens to be in the best matchup. Floyd has eclipsed 100-plus receiving yards in four of his last five games, while seeing 8, 9, 12, and 9 targets in those contests. Taking the matchup with Eagles under consideration, we find more favorable reasons to roster Floyd this week.
Looking at some of PFF’s wide receiver alignment data, Floyd has spent a higher percentage of his routes on the outside (73%) than either Fitzgerald (39%) or John Brown (63%). He figures to have the most playing time against the overpaid Byron Maxwell and rookie Eric Rowe, who rank bottom-10 in DVOA against opponent’s top outside receiver. Floyd projects for 15.4 fantasy points this week with a ceiling of 21.2, both 18th-highest among all receivers. His Projected Plus/Minus of +6.1 is the second-highest among all receivers this week as he comes in at a very affordable $4,400. Stacking these two Cardinals could make for a profitable night with both in favorable matchups facing a team that allows their opponents to run the most plays per game (70.7).
3. Russell Wilson (QB), Doug Baldwin (WR), and Seattle D/ST
It may seem like chasing points, but at some point we have to accept that Wilson and this Seattle passing offense has turned over a new leaf. In their last four games — since Marshawn Lynch underwent surgery for a sports hernia — the Seahawks have averaged 35.3 points per game, and Wilson and Baldwin have been a big part of the reason. Wilson has thrown for 16 touchdowns over that time span with zero interceptions, putting up 30-plus fantasy points in three of those matchups.
The Seahawks will face a curveball this week after losing Thomas Rawls for the season with a broken ankle and cutting DuJuan Harris on Tuesday. Bryce Brown’s inconsistencies will likely force Darrell Bevell’s hand into relying on Wilson more this week, as he gets a favorable matchup at home where the Seahawks are 14.5-point favorites against Cleveland. Wilson has the second-highest projected points (24.3) and the highest ceiling (38.0) of all quarterbacks this week. His +7.3 is the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus this week and the Browns are giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Doug Baldwin has been a man on fire the last few weeks. In his last three games he’s scored an incredible eight touchdowns while averaging 33.4 fantasy points. He’s seeing 26.7% of the team’s targets over that time span, as he’s become an integral part of this offense. Baldwin gets a favorable matchup this week against Cleveland’s slot coverman K’Waun Williams – he and the rest of the Browns corners have allowed opposing wide receivers to score seven touchdowns in their last four games. Baldwin is projected for 16.1 fantasy points this week with a ceiling of up to 22.0 points, enough for quality tournament value at his modest $5,800 price tag.
If I’m going with a Wilson-Baldwin stack, I’m going to look to further it even more by adding the Seattle D/ST to make for a more unique lineup. The Seahawks D/ST is projected for the most fantasy points (9.4) and the highest ceiling this week (18.4) with Johnny Manziel coming to town. The team is 14.5-point favorites this week, which should force Manziel to pass early and often. Seattle has allowed the third-fewest points per game and take on a Cleveland team that’s allowing the most fantasy points to opposing D/ST units. The Seahawks should absolutely roll in this one, and could see a ton of fantasy points to multiple positions along the way.
Contrarian Stack: Philip Rivers (QB) and Antonio Gates (TE)
This San Diego offense has fallen off the rails as of late, but makes for an interesting play this week with a favorable passing matchup at home against Miami. Rivers is at his lowest price of the season, which makes him an appealing play ($5,500) after seeing a $500 price drop from last week. Despite three of his last four performances resulting in less than 10 fantasy points, the one outlier was a 31.9 game against Jacksonville.
Rivers has solid projection numbers this week with the eighth-highest point total (21.7) and the ninth-highest ceiling (32.5). His ridiculous price gives him the third-best Projected Plus/Minus at +8.3. The Dolphins are tied for allowing the third-most passing touchdowns on the season (28) including three games giving up four-touchdown performances. Rivers comes with some risk given his recent performance, but has the potential to hit some terrific value given his price this week.
Stacking Rivers with Antonio Gates could lead to an interesting play this week with low ownership numbers. Miami has been vulnerable to big games from opposing tight ends that are centerpieces of their offenses – they’ve allowed stat lines like 6-113-1 to Rob Gronkowski, 7-63-1 to Jordan Reed, and 8-97-0 to Delanie Walker. The Chargers are passing the ball the fourth-most over their last three games (66.3%) and should continue to utilize Gates who’s seeing 7.7 targets per game over his last three while averaging 15.3 fantasy points.
Gates’ projected 12.9 fantasy points and 17.0 ceiling are both fifth-best this week among tight ends, but we’ve seen Gates capable of higher ceilings with a couple of multi-touchdown games under his belt already this season. Gates and Rivers both have 11 Pro Trends vying in their direction this week — tops at their respective positions — and could look to surprise in a nice matchup at home against Miami.
