“Audentis Fortuna iuvat.”
For those that didn’t take Latin, the following proverb translates roughly to “fortune favors the bold.”
I’ve been trying to incorporate this more into my DFS research as of late. When new injuries shake up different team’s depth charts, this chaos is the opportune time to strike while the masses wait for the dust to settle. The NFL season is so short that we don’t often have time to wait until trends develop given the short 17 weeks of the regular season.
I particularly like to incorporate this chaos into GPPs, sometimes doubling down on the chaos in the form of stacks. Winning GPPs takes a bold move or two, and while they may not always pan out, they’re the risks that could ultimately lead to a big pay day for our bankrolls.
Taking a look at Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus (which is the player’s projected points minus salary-based expected points) we can see which players — if everything goes right for them — have the best chance of highly exceeding their expected score and skyrocketing you up GPP leaderboards. We typically utilize stacks more commonly in GPPs, as they have the potential to vault your score above the competition if both players hit, subsequently leading to big payouts. If we pair two players with positive correlation and both players have high a Projected Plus/Minus, well, now we’re on to something.
Here’s a look at some possible DraftKings GPP stacks to utilize in Week 13 and their corresponding Plus/Minus, available here.
1) Cam Newton (QB) and Greg Olsen (TE)
Our numbers are incredibly in favor of stacking Cam Newton with his favorite weapon in Greg Olsen this week against their NFC South rival New Orleans Saints. In their earlier Week 3 matchup, Newton rolled on the Saints, throwing for a season-high 314 passing yards and two touchdowns while running a third one in on the ground. The Saints haven’t gotten much better since, allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. Newton has this week’s highest projected points (25.1) and ceiling (38.0), and a crazy Projected Plus/Minus of +7.1 (third-highest) despite a hefty price raise to $7,400 — his highest price since the season opener. Newton will likely be the chalk play of the week at quarterback — and for good reason.
Stacking Newton with his most trusted weapon on offense in Greg Olsen makes for a terrific play but will take up a large portion of your budget ($7,400 + $6,400 = 27.6% of DK budget). Olsen has seen 27.6% of Newton’s throws directed towards him, as he’s tied for the most targets among all tight ends with Gronk at 92. He’s also second in the league in receiving yards among tight ends, seeing over 50 yards in seven straight games. The Saints have been beaten up by tight ends all season, and this week should be no different. In their earlier matchup, Olsen had his best game of the season, catching 8 of 11 targets with 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Olsen has this week’s highest projected points (16.7) and projected ceiling (21.9) to go along with a +2.4 Projected Plus/Minus. Olsen also enters this week with 13 Pro Trends in his favor, as stacking him with Newton will provide you two top-shelf players at their respective positions capable of immense ceilings.
2) Tom Brady (QB) and Danny Amendola (WR)
The numerous injuries that the Patriots have gone through on offense this season have been widely stated, but as the masses begin to back off Tom Brady and company, they present a unique opportunity to be contrarian and pounce on an offense capable of putting up points in a hurry. Tom Brady faces a reeling Philadelphia defense coming up to Foxboro that has just given up five touchdowns to both Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford in back-to-back weeks. Ten-point favorites at home, Brady will look to continue this complete dismantling of the Eagles’ secondary. Brady has the second-highest projected points (24.6) and projected ceiling (36.8) among all quarterbacks this week, and the Eagles are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing signal callers. Possessing a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.1 (tied for eighth-highest of the week), Brady could go off this week at home where he has averaged 322 passing yards per game and 2.5 touchdowns as his team has the highest implied point total of the week (29.5).
Flying solo on Brady may be the more popular move for those looking to get exposure to the Patriots offense and not deal with the guessing game of who will reap the returns of Brady’s throws, but as we noted earlier, fortune favors the bold. In his last two games Danny Amendola has seen 28.4% of the team’s target market share and now enters an offense without both Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. Amendola — who’s expected to return to the field this week after a knee injury — has both the 10th-highest projected points (18.6) and projected ceiling (24.6) among wide receivers this week, but owns this week’s highest Projected Plus/Minus at +8.4 given his incredibly affordable $4,700 price tag. Philadelphia is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and Amendola has a cake matchup in the slot against E.J. Biggers. New England’s short passing game is basically an extension of the run as they’ve thrown it the fifth-most in the league (65.8% of the time). Stacking Brady with his best (remaining) short-intermediate target in Amendola provides a terrific ceiling and could be a bit under owned given the questions now surrounding this offense.
3) Andy Dalton (QB) and A.J. Green (WR)
The Bengals travel to Cleveland this week to take on the Browns for the second time this season. In their previous matchup, Dalton threw for 234 passing yards and three touchdowns. Cleveland is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and has given up multiple touchdowns to every quarterback not named Peyton Manning or Nick Foles. Vegas gives the Bengals an implied total of 26.5 points — third-highest of the week — which could be directly tied to the success of Dalton. The Red Rifle possesses a projected point total of 20 fantasy points, but a ceiling of up to 30.9, both ninth-highest among all quarterbacks. His Projected Plus/Minus of +4.4 provides him a nice projection, given his $6,400 price tag along with seven Pro Trends favoring him in his matchup this week.
Stacking Dalton with his best perimeter weapon in A.J. Green provides a terrific ceiling at both positions, as both are plenty capable of putting up fantasy points in a hurry. Green will likely square up against Joe Haden this week if he’s cleared to play, but Haden has become a shell of his former self after going through a litany of injuries. The Cleveland secondary as a whole is struggling, as they’ve given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and have had six different players surpass 100-yards on them. Green is averaging 10 targets per game over his last five contests, providing both steady opportunity and volume. Projected for 19.5 fantasy points and a 26.5-point ceiling, Green ranks seventh-highest in both categories this week squaring up against his AFC North rival. A Dalton-Green stack could prove to be a profitable one, given the questions surrounding Tyler Eifert and his health status going into Week 13.
Contrarian Stack: DeAngelo Williams (RB) and Pittsburgh Steelers (D/ST)
Averaging over 20 fantasy points per game after coming on in relief of Le’Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams has seen a late career revitalization in Pittsburgh. Williams faces a visiting Indianapolis defense where the Vegas implied points from this game are still undetermined as Ben Roethlisberger continues to go through the NFL’s concussion protocol. Assuming Big Ben’s cleared to go, this offense should roll on all cylinders against a struggling Colts defense. That would leave plenty of positive game script for DeAngelo Williams to run in, as he’s seeing 92.5% of the backfield touches since taking over starter duty in Week 9. Williams has the second-highest projected fantasy points (20.9) and projected ceiling (26.9) among all running backs, and an incredibly favorable +8.7 Projected Plus/Minus given his roster-friendly price of just $5,600. Nearly game script agnostic in the same vein as Bell, Williams receiving skills make him a three-down back in this Pittsburgh offense that’s presenting him with over 20 touches per game.
Stacking Williams with Pittsburgh’s defense could lead to a contrarian stack following their rough outing in Seattle where Russell Wilson threw five touchdowns against them. Luckily for the Steelers, they face 40-year old Matt Hasselbeck who has breezed through two easy matchups the past two weeks against Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The Falcons and Buccaneers are both in the bottom half of the league in sacks and quarterback pressures, but Hasselbeck will have face a new kind of challenge this week against Pittsburgh’s pass rush that has the fifth-most sacks and 13th-most pressures on the season. Pittsburgh’s defense also ranks in the top 10 in takeaways and have one of the better special teamers in the league with newly acquired Jacoby Jones. Only Devin Hester has more special teams touchdown returns than Jacoby Jones’ eight that he’s returned for scores via both punt and kickoff returns since 2007 when Jones entered the league. The Pittsburgh D/ST is projected to have the eighth-highest projected fantasy points (7.8) and ceiling (15.5) with one of this week’s best Projected Plus/Minus scores of +0.4 (sixth-highest). The potential for sacks, turnovers, and special teams touchdowns makes the Pittsburgh D/ST a nice play against a struggling road team led by a backup quarterback and pairs nicely as a correlation play off DeAngelo Williams.
