I’ve only ever cheated on a test once in my life.
It was 9th grade Geometry and for the life of me, I couldn’t understand when I’d ever encounter an isosceles triangle inside of a rhombus juxtaposed to a quadrilateral where I’d need to know the dimensions and angles of every single thing. Spoiler alert — I still haven’t encountered this situation, Mrs. Waldman.
As a rookie to cheating, of course I got caught. She checked all our calculators to see if we had the formulas and there was mine clear as day, a series of formulas typed in my recent section on my TI-89 calculator — busted. A nice, quiet, honor-roll guy, she let me take the test anyway, but she took my aggregate score and cut it in half as punishment and gave me a week’s worth of detention. I still feel terrible about it to this day.
Why am I telling you this? I later became an engineer (and ironically, president of Math Club) and have since found programs and models that do all of this nitty-gritty math work for you. Similar to how we have our own set of programs and models for fantasy football, which tell us which players are projected to have high scores, we can use these models and projections to anticipate scores for our players and what possible range of outcomes we can expect. These are generally geared towards the safe side, but when entering GPP’s we want to look at the best possible outcomes, and that’s why we look at something like Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus scoring, focusing on the highest “plus” available.
Taking a look at Fantasy Labs’ Projected Plus/Minus (which is the player’s projected points minus salary-based expected points) we can see which players — if everything goes right for them — have the best chance of highly exceeding their expected score and skyrocketing you up GPP leaderboards. We typically utilize stacks more commonly in GPP’s, as they have the potential to vault your score above the competition if both players hit, subsequently leading to big payouts. If we pair two players with positive correlation and both players have high a Projected Plus/Minus, well, now we’re on to something.
Here’s a look at some possible DraftKings GPP stacks to utilize in Week 12 and their corresponding Plus/Minus, available here.
1) Brian Hoyer (QB) and DeAndre Hopkins (WR)
Returning in his first game back following a concussion, Brian Hoyer gets to take on the New Orleans Saints at home in what projects to be this week’s highest scoring game. Severely underpriced at $5,000 this week on DraftKings, Hoyer represents a great opportunity to pounce on a cheap quarterback capable of a high ceiling. The Saints defense has given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have been particularly poor as of late. In their last four games, they’ve given up a total of 1,378 passing yards and 17 touchdowns. Hoyer has this week’s highest Projected Plus/Minus with +10 to go along with the second-highest projected fantasy outing of 22.1 fantasy points. Hoyer offers this week’s highest-projected ceiling among all quarterbacks with 34.6 fantasy points.
Stacking Hoyer with his top target in DeAndre Hopkins provides one of the highest ceilings available this week. The Saints are tied for giving up the second-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers and the 13th-most receiving yards to the position. Hopkins has both the second-highest projected fantasy points and projected ceiling among all receivers this week, but only a minor Projected Plus/Minus of +1.1 given his $9,100 price tag. Likely shadowed by Delvin Breaux in this matchup, Breaux has been vulnerable as of late, succumbing fantasy points to opposing wide receivers at an embarrassing rate. Over his last four games, Breaux has given up a combined 17-398-7 stat line getting absolutely torched by opposing wide receivers. Nuk has shown to be quarterback agnostic given what he’s had to work with over his career, but he gets a terrific matchup that both he and his quarterback should excel in as a viable stacking candidate for Week 12.
2) Carson Palmer (QB) and Larry Fitzgerald (WR)
Carson Palmer and the Cardinals travel to San Francisco to face their NFC West rival in a game where early lines have Arizona favored by 10 points. Palmer is this week’s third-highest projected scoring quarterback with 22.0 fantasy points and comes in with a 90% chance of exceeding his projected points as he has over his past ten games. Palmer boasts the 13th-highest Projected Plus/Minus at +4.7, but has the second-highest ceiling of all quarterbacks this week at 34.5 points. The 49ers are yielding the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in a game that could turn into a blowout.
As the Cardinals struggle with health among their wide receivers, one variable has remained a constant — Larry Fitzgerald. Stacking Palmer with Fitzgerald, who caught nine passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers in their earlier matchup this year, provides another high ceiling stack on this week’s slate. Fitzgerald has eight different pro trends in his favor this week, including averaging over seven targets per game in his last 16 games and possessing a ceiling of at least 19.0 points. Fitzgerald has the fourth-highest projected points with 22.5 this week and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus with +4.7. In four of his last five games, Fitzgerald has caught at least eight passes, as the pair of Palmer and Fitzgerald provide both a safe floor and a high ceiling.
3) Josh McCown (QB) and Gary Barnidge (TE)
Recently anointed starter Josh McCown returns under center for the Browns this week and will be sparring with a Ravens squad that just lost their starting quarterback and running back for the season. McCown absolutely thrived in his last matchup against Baltimore, throwing for 457 passing yards and two touchdowns. McCown is projected for the 17th-highest total of all quarterbacks, but the Baltimore secondary has been lit up by quarterbacks this season, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position. McCown’s Projected Plus/Minus of +6.6 is the fourth-highest of all quarterbacks, offering him a unique ceiling at his $5,000 price tag.
Pairing McCown with his favorite target, Gary Barnidge, has proven to be a profitable one to date. In the six games they’ve played together, Barnidge has either gone over 100 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in every single one. Barnidge has been a revelation for the Browns at tight end, and has the fourth-highest projected points scored this week at 13.4. He also has a decent Projected Plus/Minus of +3.6 as the 13th-best of all tight ends, but has the fourth-highest ceiling at 17.7 points. Barnidge picked up 8 receptions for 139 yards and one touchdown in their last matchup and makes for a nice arbitrage stack with McCown against common quarterback-wide receivers stacks.
Contrarian Stack: Chris Ivory (RB) and New York Jets (D/ST)
Chris Ivory had been in a mini-slump a few weeks back, but has started to turn things around lately and gets to take on a Miami defense at home this week. In their previous matchup in London, Ivory ran for 166 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries in one of his best games of the season. The Jets enter the game as 3.5-point favorites in one of the lowest projected scoring games on the slate, leading to what could be a large dose of Ivory once again in this matchup. Miami’s rush defense has been struggling as of late, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Ivory is projected to put up 13.2 points, but possesses a Projected Plus/Minus of +2.2, and has shown a ceiling of putting up 30-plus fantasy points earlier this season.
Pairing Ivory with the Jets D/ST should provide a unique stack this week, with the Jets D/ST projected to have the fourth-highest fantasy points with 8.8. They also have the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at +0.5 in a week with very few highly projected defenses. In their last matchup, the Jets held the Dolphins to only 14 points allowed, and were able to sack the quarterback three times and come up with two interceptions. The Jets are tied for the 11th-most interceptions on the year at 10 and get to play in the confines of their own backyard this week as home favorites. Recency bias could have the public off Ivory, and doubling down on him with his defense could provide you a unique stack in an interesting slate of games this week.
