Magomed Ankalaev looks to continue his climb up the light heavyweight ranks against former title challenger Thiago Santos. Ankalaev, “the uncrowned champion” of the division, is expected to make quick work of Santos, but the rest of the main card promises tons of actions. DFS lineups lock at 4 p.m. EST.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Magomed Ankalaev ($9,600) vs. Thiago Santos ($6,600)
Ankalaev is a massive favorite here at -600 (and rising), which is reflected in his DFS salary. This puts us in a challenging position for GPPs. While we can find the salary to get up to Ankalaev fairly easily, there are five fights on the card with stoppage odds of -200 or better. All of those fighters are cheaper than Ankalaev, so he’ll need to put up a huge score to justify his price tag.
In 2022, we’ve had three main event winners not make the optimal DFS lineups. Each of those were fairly heavy favorites. So while we generally want to jam in a five-round fighter in every lineup, building some lineups that avoid this fight is fine this week. Ankalaev has 82 and 77 points in his last wins, which certainly wouldn’t be enough this week. His output is below average from a striking and grappling standpoint, so we benefit less from an extra two rounds here than with many fighters. With that said, he could certainly pick up an early finish, so I won’t be totally fading him.
Of course, all of this is based on the assumption Ankalaev gets the win. Santos is still dangerous at 38 and has at least a punchers chance here. He would certainly be a must-have if he picks up a win of any sort and likely at very low ownership. While I don’t expect a great performance from him, he’s the higher EV play here for tournaments.
From a cash game perspective, the usual strategy of playing both fighters is fine here but not a must. Ankalaev is hard to avoid, with the best median projection on the card. However, if you prefer either of the other fighters in Santos’ price range, pivoting to them is probably the better option.
Santos has a middling Pts/Sal score in our models.
The Easy Chalk
Song Yadong ($9,200)
The co-main event of the card features fast-rising Song Yadong vs. veteran Mario Moraes ($7,000). The bantamweights have rapidly diverging career trajectories, with Moraes losing three consecutive fights and four of his last five. Song has gone 7-1-1 since making his UFC debut at just 19 years old, continuing to rise to the level of competition put in front of him.
Rostering a 24-year-old who looks better and better each fight against an older fighter likely in the twilight of his career is a fairly obvious play. Besides the high chance of winning (Song is a -240 favorite), he also has legitimate finishing ability. Song averages more than double the UFC knockdown rate (on a per-round basis).
When you bring that kind of power against a fighter who’s been knocked out four times in his last five fights, you have a recipe for a big score. Moraes tends to start super aggressively, then wilt quickly if he faces any pushback. It’s a step up in competition for Song, but he should meet the challenge here.
It’s also likely that this fight is contested mostly on the feet. Both fighters average roughly one takedown attempt every other round. Moraes has had slightly more success but is unlikely to force the issue here. Song’s striking work-rate is one of the best on the card at 60 attempts per round, so he should rack up points as long as it remains standing.
Our projections have him behind only Ankalaev in median and ceiling.
Alex Pereira ($8,900)
Pereira burst onto the UFC scene after an impressive career in kickboxing with a flying knee knockout in his debut. He’s probably the best pure striker in MMA right now, with two wins over middleweight champion Israel Adesanya in kickboxing.
He’s taking on Bruno Silva ($7,300) to open the main card. Silva is also a solid striker, with all three of his UFC wins coming by way of knockout. (Though one was via ground and pound.) The powerful combination leads to the fight with the best odds to end inside the distance, at -650.
If this is a pure striking matchup, Pereira should make quick work of Silva. Besides his credentials and ridiculous power, he also holds a six-inch reach advantage. There’s a difference between being a good striker — for an MMA fighter — and being a truly elite one like Pereira.
The knockout potential and hype behind Pereira should lead to his ownership being one of the highest on the slate. For good reason, though, as he trails only Song and Ankalaev in median projections at a salary discount. However, it could get ugly from a DFS standpoint if he doesn’t pick up a quick win. He fights similarly to Adesanya, preferring to sit back and snipe rather than overwhelm opponents with volume. Most of the points in his projection are coming from stoppage bonuses, not overall output.
I’m also interested in mixing in some Silva here. If he’s able to turn this into a grappling match, he should have a huge edge over Pereira. While I’m sure he’s training his takedown defense and get-ups extensively, there’s a vast difference when facing a fighter with a dozen years of professional MMA experience.
I’ll likely have one of the two in each of my lineups on Saturday, with a lean towards the favored Pereira. Still, I’d like to be overweight on Silva compared to the field. At his salary, essentially any win should place him in the optimal lineup.
The Upside Plays
Javid Basharat ($8,700)
Basharat had one of the most impressive Contender Series bouts I can recall, dominating his opponent on the feet and on the ground. He mixed in takedowns with precise striking en route to a third-round submission, though he could’ve finished the fight on the feet at a few different points.
It’s that well-rounded skill set that has me targeting Basharat against Trevin Jones ($7,500). Jones has shown explosive striking ability in his UFC career but looked susceptible to the takedown in his last bout. Basharat should continue to mix up his attack, keeping Jones wary of the potential takedowns.
Even if the takedowns don’t land, that would keep Jones on the back foot while he prepares to defend takedowns. It’s extremely easy to take down a fighter stepping in to throw big shots, which Basharat can take advantage of. Even if it doesn’t play out that way, I’m not so sure Jones is the better striker.
While Jones certainly packs more power, the efficient approach from Basharat could pay dividends as the fight goes on. Jones absorbs over twice the number of strikes as he lands. That doesn’t play well with judges and is risky against a fighter like Basharat with power in his hands and feet. Basharat also looked fresh deep into the third round of his contender series fight, while Jones tends to lose steam as fights wear on.
I’ll be mixing in a solid dose of Basharat in my lineups, including GPPs and cash games.
Dalcha Lungiambula ($8,300)
Lungiambula has alternated wins and losses in his UFC career, with both wins coming against now released fighters. His opponent Cody Brundage ($7,900) could be joining that list soon though. Brundage was knocked out on the Contender Series before getting a chance anyway in September of last year. Brundage’s strength is arguably his wrestling, but he was taken down four times by Nick Maximov in a unanimous decision loss.
It’s hard to see where he has an edge against Lungiambula, though. “Champion” is a Judo blackbelt and former ADCC (no-gi submission wrestling) champion. Lungiambula also profiles as the better striker, with four inches in reach on the taller Brundage.
Lungiambula has multiple paths to a stoppage win here. He likely won’t do much for your lineups if it goes the distance, though, as his below-average output doesn’t add up to a lot of points.
Still, he’s a solid value at $8,300 and doesn’t totally tank a roster with a decision win.
The Value Play
Sabina Mazo ($6,800)
Mazo is — somewhat curiously — one of the bigger underdogs on this card. She’s taking on Miranda Maverick ($9,400) on the prelims, with both fighters riding two-fight losing streaks. Both women are even in the record columns of their UFC careers, with Mazo at 3-3 and Maverick at 2-2. The odds really become interesting when you consider that Maverick took this fight on just over two weeks notice, though.
While the impact of short notice bouts is debatable — and varies greatly between fighters — it certainly favors the more prepared fighter. That, of course, would be Mazo, who was originally slated to fight Mandy Bohm. Mazo would instantly be one of the best points-per-dollar plays on the slate if she pulls out a win.
That’s not necessarily why she’s such a strong value, though. This fight is pretty unlikely to end inside the distance, with +180 odds the longest on the slate. That means there’s a good chance we get to see Mazo ply her trade for 15 minutes. She has the highest output of any fighter on the card, attempting 75 strikes per round. With neither her or Maverick likely to take the fight to the ground, that’s a lot of scoring opportunity for Mazo.
Mazo is an ideal cash game play who likely posts a solid score even in a loss. On a card with six fighters over $9,000 in salary and four fights -200 or better to end early, we need to find some cheap points, especially in cash games. She’s not a bad GPP play either, as her output looks a lot better when a win bonus gets added to it.
She has the best Pts/Sal projection of any fighter under $7,800 in our models.
The Contrarian Approach
AJ Fletcher ($6,900)
AJ Fletcher is making his UFC debut against four-fight UFC veteran Matthew Semelsberger ($9,300) in the final prelim fight of UFC Fight Night 50. Fletcher is fresh off an extremely impressive Contender Series victory, in which he battered his opponent with punches before putting him down with a flying knee in the first round.
While Semelsberger has a very strong 3-1 record in the UFC, that record is a bit overinflated. His best win came against Jason Witt, who’s 2-2 in his other UFC bouts That was also a potentially fluky 16-second knockout. While impressive, I’d rather see a fighter control longer stretches of action.
Neither of Semelsberger’s other wins came against fighters with a UFC win. Nick Maximov is 4-3 as a professional, and fighting in the UFC essentially as a favor/negotiation piece to Nick Diaz. Carlton Minus went 0-2 and was cut by the promotion.
Besides the obvious “fade Semelsberger” nature of this pick, I’m very impressed by what I’ve seen from Fletcher. He’s a freak athlete who allegedly had a 500lbs squat and 315lbs bench as a high school junior.
He showed great explosiveness with his flying knee knockout on the contender series, as well as powerful takedowns earlier in the bout.
The knock on Fletcher here is his tiny reach. At 67″ he’s giving up eight inches to his opponent. On the other hand, that’s been the case for pretty much all of his fights, with his explosive ability allowing him to close the distance easily. While I expect it to catch up with him against top competition, Semelsberger isn’t it.
Fletcher isn’t projecting particularly well, but that should keep his rostership down. I’m loading up on him this weekend, as he’s my favorite play on the slate from a salary-considered standpoint.
The Swing Fight
Drew Dober ($9,000) vs. Terrance McKinney ($7,200)
The hype behind McKinney is at an all-time high, as he looks to follow up on his first-round knockout last weekend against Drew Dober. Dober had this kind of hype behind him just a year ago, before running into Islam Makhachev and Brad Riddell. Dober lost both of those fights but will be looking to get back into the win column against the mercurial McKinney.
Outside of Silva-Pereira, this bout has the best odds of ending inside the distance of any fight on the card at -280. It looks to be fairly straightforward: if Dober can survive McKinney’s initial onslaught, he’s likely to put McKinney away in the second or third round. McKinney only has one professional win outside the first round, while Dober has been battle-tested deep into fights.
Dober is a finisher, too though, with three straight knockouts preceding his two-fight losing streak. He also has solid wrestling and could look to rack up takedowns and control time early on in this fight. Dober opened as a -225 favorite (leading to his high salary) but has since been bet down to -165. Normally I’d say that suggests value on McKinney, though I think this movement is more due to the hype around “T Wrecks” than sharp money coming in. (I’ll be betting Dober as late as possible, assuming the line continues to slip.)
With that said, McKinney is probably the better DFS play. Over half of his win condition (22% implied based on DraftKings odds.) is based on a round one win, which is obviously valuable for DFS. He also doesn’t need quite as high of a score to pay off, given the salary disparity.
This is a rare fight where I expect the favorite to be lower owned, though, so don’t be afraid to mix in some Dober.
Photo Credit: Chris Unger
Pictured above: Santos, Ankalaev
