The fast-rising Sean Strickland takes on veteran Jack Hermansson in Middleweight action at UFC Fight Night. The winner of this one could be one fight away from a title shot, so stakes are high. Lineups lock for the DraftKings slate at 4 pm ET, so get your rosters ready.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type — maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below.
UFC DFS Model
The Main Event
Jack Hermansson ($7,400) vs. Sean Strickland ($8,800)
As always, getting the main even right will be the key to DFS success. Strickland is the -250 favorite, riding a four-fight win streak since his jump to the middleweight division. (Including a 195lbs catchweight bout against Brendan Allen.) Generally, the concern with fighters jumping up in weight is whether or not their power can translate against larger opponents. That hasn’t been a problem for Strickland, who has an impressive knockout over Brendan Allen on his middleweight resume.
At 6’1″ tall and with a 74″ reach, Strickland is also more than long enough for the division, though he’s giving up an inch and a half in reach to Hermansson. “The Joker” is the more well-rounded fighter, with multiple UFC submission wins and a high takedown rate. He also throws a much higher volume of strikes than Strickland, leading to better overall fantasy scoring.
The combination of extra reach and striking volume should serve the underdog well here. However, Strickland has a noticeable edge in the power department. Hermansson has yet to record a knockdown in his UFC career, while Strickland records them at a slightly above-average rate. Hermansson could very well win most of the striking exchanges but still, find himself unconscious by the end of the night. On the other hand, Strickland is one of the best defensive strikers in the UFC, so this one could end up with less striking action than fans are hoping for.
Both fighters are capable grapplers as well, with strong submission skills. Hermansson will likely be the one to initiate the grappling exchanges, as he attempts over twice as many takedowns as Strickland. Strickland’s takedown defense is very solid, however. I’d give the slight edge to Hermansson if he can get the fight to the ground. Given his power deficiencies, that’s certainly his best chance at controlling this fight.
Overall, Hermansson has more tools at his disposal and is a live underdog for this one. It’s generally a solid strategy to be overweight the field on underdogs in five-round fights, with this one being no different. That doesn’t mean you necessarily need to have more of Hermansson than Strickland to be ahead of the field, though. Strickland has the best median and ceiling projections in our model.
Strickland has better odds of securing a finish, but he’ll need it to justify his enhanced salary. Any Hermansson win will likely see him in the optimal lineup at night’s end. Be sure to set a rule in our optimizer to include exactly one of these guys in every lineup you make.
The Easy Chalk
Brendan Allen ($9,300)
It’s not too often we see a late addition to the fighter pool come in as a -300 favorite and one of the most expensive fighters on the slate. That’s the case with “All In” Allen. Allen is the latest winner in the “send Sam Alvey ($6,900) packing” sweepstakes. Allen suffered a major upset loss to Chris Curtis (himself a last-minute replacement) less than two months ago and will be looking to get back to his winning ways.
He couldn’t ask for a much better opportunity than Alvey. The 36-year-old is winless in seven straight fights and lucky to still be on the UFC roster. This is surely his last chance at staying with the promotion. Allen won’t make that easy, though. He’s 5-2 in the UFC and looked to be on his way to a top-10 ranking before the upset loss to Curtis derailed that.
The only issue with Allen from a DFS standpoint is whether he’s able to do enough to justify his salary. He’s not a particularly active fighter, so we’ll be relying on a stoppage to get him a high score. He’s -115 to end the fight inside the distance while being slightly likelier to find a submission (+215) than a knockout (+250). That’s slightly troubling, as Allen didn’t post extremely high scores in either of his UFC submission wins (111 and 102 fantasy points.) On a card with plenty of mismatches that could produce high scores, we could see Allen in the 100 point range — but not in the winning lineup.
Either way, he’s an extremely safe pick and sure to be popular in lineups for all contests. I won’t have him in all of my lineups, but will certainly have some exposure. He ranks third in both median and ceiling projections in our model.
Jailton Almeida ($9,400)
Almeida is another anomaly — a UFC debutant with some of the best odds and the highest salary on the card. Brazil’s top-rated light heavyweight is riding a nine-fight win streak, with each victory coming inside the distance. He has a solid mixture of knockout and submission wins but is primarily a grappler. The black belt won his contender series bout by rear-naked choke.
He’s a -375 or so favorite against Danilo Marques ($6,800). While Marques is a capable submission fighter himself, he’s not at the level of Almeida. Marques will certainly be looking to turn this into a grappling contest. He attempts nearly 4.5 takedowns per round, one of the highest marks I’ve seen. That could be a mistake against the submission skills of Almeida.
Almeida could also choose to use his grappling defensively. Marques hasn’t shown himself to be an able or willing stand-up fighter in his UFC career, putting him at a disadvantage against Almeida on the feet. Almeida keeping it standing would be better for DFS purposes, though.
Either way, it’s hard to see Almeida failing here. Much like Allen, the only question is whether or not he’s able to justify his salary. I like Almeida’s chances more personally. He’s -165 to win by a stoppage here. He also trails only Strickland in our median projections. I’ll have him in most of my lineups.
The Upside Plays
Punahele Soriano ($8,600)
The 8-1 Soriano is looking to rebound from his first career loss (to Brendan Allen) in the co-main event. He’s taking on undefeated Nick Maximov ($7,600) on Saturday. Maximov is 1-0 in the UFC, winning a somewhat underwhelming UFC debut against Cody Brundrage.
This is a classic striker vs. grappler contest, with Soriano as the striker. Both of “Puna”‘s UFC wins have come via knockouts, and both in the first round. He dropped each of those opponents twice in those contests, leading to over 120 DraftKings points in each of his wins. He was then outstruck by Allen, but that’s of little concern against Maximov.
Maximov attempted a ridiculous 14 takedowns in his UFC debut while landing only four of them. He will surely be following a similar gameplan against Soriano has a perfect 100% takedown defense so far in the UFC — but has had to defend only one takedown. It will be interesting to see how well that defense holds up in this one.
Still, Soriano is far too cheap for his upside. He has the second-highest ceiling projections in our models. If he wins this one, it’s highly likely he racks up a ton of points. The -170 or so odds on him doing so feels about right. Maximov’s style could be a problem, but he’s a bit of an unknown entity. His takedown success rate in his debut is a concern, and it’s a major step up in competition for him.
Puna is the better pick here, though I’ll likely have a Maximov lineup or two as well. Ownership on Maximov is likely to be fairly low, and if he’s able to land his takedowns against Soriano, he could end up with a ton of fantasy points. That’s not the likeliest outcome, but it’s within the range of possibilities.
The Value Play
Phillip Rowe ($8,400)
Rowe is tied for second in our Pts/Sal projections. He’s a solid value as a -125 favorite with a middling salary. He’s fighting Jason Witt ($7,800) in early prelim action.
Rowe is 1-1 in the UFC, and all of his eight professional wins have been stoppages. He has an even mix of knockouts and submissions. That knockout power is concerning for Witt, who’s 2-2 in the UFC — with both losses by knockout. (Witt also has three knockout losses prior to joining the UFC.)
This is another striker vs. grappler matchup, with Witt at his best when the fight hits the mat. (Though relative to Soriano, Rowe is a more well-rounded fighter.) Rowe has a 10-inch reach advantage, making it hard for Witt to get within grappling range. Still, Rowe has a mediocre 50% takedown defense in the UFC (on eight takedowns faced).
This one likely plays out with Witt getting increasingly desperate for takedowns as Rowe continues to tag him throughout the fight. If he’s not able to secure them, Rowe should pick him apart on the feet before eventually finding a big shot that ends Witt’s night.
Given Rowe’s grappling chops, it’s not a foregone conclusion that Witt wins the grappling exchanges either. Extremely long fighters like Rowe generally do well from their backs, and Rowe landing a submission wouldn’t be a shock. Given Witt’s most likely win condition being a decision, I’m fine eliminating him from my player pool. That doesn’t mean I’ll have 100% Rowe, but I expect him to be one of my higher owned fighters on the night.
The Contrarian Approach
Bryan Battle ($7,900)
Thanks to the emergence of the Contender Series as the preferred route into the UFC (and the expansion of the roster), the quality of fighters coming through The Ultimate Fighter reality series has dipped in recent seasons. One a place for seasoned veterans, the show now features very green prospects. These fighters aren’t necessarily devoid of talent, but many of them might not quite be ready for the big show.
None of that matters this time, though, as Battle takes on Tresean Gore ($8,300) in the main card opener. This fight was supposed to decide the winner of TUF season 28, but Gore was injured before the finale. That left Battle to fight Gilbert Urbina for the championship, a bout Battle won convincingly.
That bout is the only official UFC action from either man however; we have their bouts on TUF to evaluate. Battle is an extremely persistent grappler, forcing his opponents to the cage while he methodically works for takedowns. Gore is the more explosive striker, though he has solid grappling skills as well.
That makes this somewhat a striker vs. grappler style matchup, but I’m on the side of the grappler this time. Mainly due to the experience edge that battle has. He has more than double the pro fights as Gore and fought tough competition even as an amateur. (Two of Battle’s amateur wins came against future UFC fighters.) Prior to TUF, Gore fought two fighters making their pro debut and one with a 1-0 record. Gore is also recovering from an injury that kept him out of competition for nearly a year, while Battle has already dipped his toes into the UFC waters.
Battle is a slight (+130) underdog here, but I’d make him a slight favorite if I was setting the line. Either way, at sub-$8,000 in salary, any win will be enough to find him in the winning lineup when the dust settles. I’ll be looking to go very overweight on Battle — while acknowledging that the range of outcomes is very wide.
The Swing Fight
Chidi Njokuani ($8,000) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault ($8,200)
In one of the very few close fights (at least by betting odds), we have “Chidi bang bang” making his UFC debut against “Powerbar” Njokuani is a Bellator veteran on a two-fight win streak — both knockouts — while Barriault has a two-fight streak of his own. Both are looking to climb into the middleweight ranks with a big win here.
Our projections greatly prefer Barriault in this one, giving him a 30-point edge in median projection. That feels about right, but given the power from both men, the upside is reasonably high for either of them. Njokuani has almost 10 inches in reach and would like to keep this fight standing. Barriault’s power mostly comes through ground and pound, and he needs to get inside and bring this fight to the ground.
I don’t have a particularly strong read on who wins this one, but I expect whoever it is to do so with a big score. I’d like to have one or the other from this fight in as many lineups as possible. Consider setting an optimizer rule to do just that. With the relatively modest salaries on both, a stoppage win from either would vault them into the optimal lineup.
Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Getty Images
Pictured above: Jack Hermansson, Sean Strickland
