The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads back stateside to Houston this week as Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Hewitt Packard Enterprise Houston Open. The course is a long par-70 that measures at 7,432 yards with Bermuda grass greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Adam Scott ($9,600 DraftKings)
Scott is at the point in his career where he does not play too often, so when he does, it’s likely for good reason. We know Scott is not winning any birdie-fests due to his putting woes, so at a difficult course like we’ll have this week, we should definitely take notice.
Scott is in great form, coming off a T-5 at the CJ Cup and before that going T-14 at the BMW PGA Championship over in Europe. His irons have been locked in, ranking eighth in this field in SG: Approach across his past eight rounds. We only have one year of history at Memorial Park, but Scott did finish T-32 last year at this event. He’s playing much better golf this season and is very reasonably priced in this top-heavy field. The Aussie is a rock solid cash game option.
Talor Gooch ($9,300 DraftKings)
Gooch has been playing the best golf of his life over the past two months or so, posting four consecutive top-11 finishes, which include two top-fives at the CJ Cup and the Fortinet. He was in contention this past week at the Mayakoba before a final-round 74 ruined any hopes of hoisting the trophy.
Gooch took a liking to Memorial Park one year ago, finishing in solo fourth in what was a pretty strong field. Every part of his game is clicking right now, and he ranks seventh in this field total strokes gained across his past 16 rounds. Obviously it looks weird seeing Gooch priced in the $9,000 range, but he’s certainly earned that right, and everything is lining up for another strong showing this week.
Aaron Wise ($9,200 DraftKings)
Wise, much like Gooch, is also playing the best golf of his career. He’s now finished inside the top-26 in each of his past six events and went T-5 and T-8 at the CJ Cup and Shriner’s, respectively. Wise also teed it up in Houston a year ago, finishing T-11. It is incredibly difficult to poke a hole in Wise’s game right now, as he even improved his once poor putting. Overall, he ranks second in this field (behind CT Pan) in total strokes gained over his past 16 rounds.
Unlike last week where we had a ton of value to choose from in both the $7,000 and $6,000 range, this week it is much tighter, and it becomes way harder to identify good plays below $7,500. With that being the case, I much prefer going the balanced build route in cash, and Wise seems like a perfect fit.
Shane Lowry ($8,200 DraftKings)
Lowry is simply underpriced for his talent level in this field. I don’t really understand what DraftKings was thinking with this one. He should not be priced below guys like Marc Leishman or Jason Kokrak, despite missing the cut last week. Much like Adam Scott, Lowry excels at tracks where you need to grind out pars, which is what this week should present us with.
He had been playing exceptional golf prior to last week and even posted a T-11 at this track last year. The Irishman should bounce right back in Houston after last week’s mishap. At just $8,200, Lowry fits any type of build and possesses a ton of upside for the price – just what we’re looking for in cash games.
Value Plays
Mackenzie Hughes ($7,900 DraftKings)
This is the first time I have ever written up Mac Hughes, but it is certainly warranted based on both how he’s been playing lately, and the fact he finished T-7 at this event last year. We know he is not the greatest ball-striker, but he more than makes up for his shortcomings there with his absurdly good short game. The Canadian ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Putting over his last 36 rounds and is also a better putter on Bermuda than other surfaces.
Hughes has been in form lately, posting a T-25 at the CJ Cup before finishing fourth at the ZOZO. We are not looking for a ton from him this week, and a made cut should do the trick.
Mito Pereira ($7,700 DraftKings)
Pereira did not play great last week, which is not entirely surprising as those resort course events usually turn into putting contests, which clearly is not his specialty. He’s been one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR in his brief stint, and that will come in quite handy this week at a much tougher track.
The Chilean ranks No.1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds, which is quite impressive when you consider the big names in the field this week. Last week’s missed cut led DraftKings to trim his salary a bit, and he’s now a very palatable $7,700. There is a ton of upside here, and Pereira is one of the strongest values on the slate.
Aaron Rai ($6,900 DraftKings)
Rai is way too cheap for his talent level, and he seems relatively undervalued following a T-15 last week in Mexico. He’s now finished inside the top-25 in two of his past three events and continues to get disrespected despite having five career worldwide victories. Memorial Park was designed by Tom Doak, who also designed the Renaissance Club in Scotland, which hosts the Scottish Open. Aaron Rai won the Scottish Open in 2020.
Obviously that is not the end all, but it is nice to know he’s familiar with Doak layouts. Combine that with his bargain bin price, and he makes for a pretty strong value option on a week bereft of them.
