The first two races of Daytona Speedweek take place tonight with the Bluegreen Vacation Duel at Daytona qualifying races (7 p.m. ET, FS1).
These two races are used to set the starting lineup for the Daytona 500. Each race will feature 21 drivers, with the starting order for each race set by last night’s single-lap time trial.
There are some extremely important nuances in these particular Duel races that will differentiate them from past years. The parts shortage with the new Next Gen car has left many teams without a backup car. Even some bigger teams only have one or two backup cars for a four-car team.
As such, we’ll have to pay attention to “garage talk.” That’s shorthand for what teams and drivers are saying going into the duel races. Some drivers have said they’ll be racing hard. Others have said they’ll take it easy to preserve their equipment.
So let’s parse through the garage talk, and then I’ll talk strategy for each individual duel race.
Daytona Duels Garage Talk
I’ve been taking notes throughout the week and we have an idea of how a good chunk of the teams and drivers will be approaching things. Let’s start with last year’s championship team, Hendrick Motorsports, and work our way through the teams.
- Hendrick Motorsports: Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman are locked into the front row of the Daytona 500. Larson and Bowman both said they will be taking it easy. Very clear fades.
- Team Penske: Joey Logano said he will race the Duel like it’s the 500. Blaney says people will be smart with how they race. He also mentioned Penske’s car inventory “is not very big currently.”
- Wood Brothers: Harrison Burton is not concerned with where he starts the 500. He’ll likely be taking it easy.
- Petty GMS Motorsports: Erik Jones said he and teammate Ty Dillon “cannot wreck” their cars, so expect them to lay back or even pull off the track at some point. Both are fades.
- Beard Motorsports: Noah Gragson is locked into the Daytona 500 and will take it easy to preserve the car.
- Team Hezeberg: Jacques Villeneuve is locked into the Daytona 500 and will take it easy to preserve the car.
- Joe Gibbs Racing: All four Gibbs cars, as well as 23XI affiliate Bubba Wallace, are in the second Duel. Expect them to get in line and stay that way and ride around, likely toward the front. They are a good DFS stack.
- Here is a list of some other teams and whether they have a backup car or not at the track.
Daytona Duel No. 1 Strategy
The first Duel race features three Hendrick cars leading the field to green. However, we know Larson will take it easy, and is likely a good fade.
His teammates William Byron and Chase Elliott, however, start second and third. If they remain up front will be playable as one or the other is likely to lead a chunk of the race and finish up front if things remain calm as expected.
The two drivers from this Duel that must race their way into the Daytona 500 are Kaz Grala and J.J. Yeley. It seems as if Yeley just doesn’t have enough speed in that car, so as long as Grala can hang at the back of the pack, he should be in. That means neither are strong plays.
It’s likely drivers from the bigger teams will be the plays. Expect the larger teams in the Ford stable to hook up. That means drivers from Team Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing make solid plays as a stack. That includes Ryan Blaney, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, and Cole Custer. Brad Keselowski of RFK Racing and Todd Gilliland of Front Row Motorsports should also figure into this group given they each have a backup car at the track.
Likewise, expect the Chevy drivers to hook up as well. Aside from HMS, that includes Richard Childress Racing, Kaulig Racing, Team Trackhouse, and Petty GMS. The main issue is, these teams aren’t as big.
The strategy: This race should be tame. Look to stack the bigger team Fords, and in a few alternate lineups stack the Chevys that are starting further back. In either scenario, it’s okay to use one or both of Elliott and Byron. Kurt Busch is the lone Toyota and is a bit of a wild card. He could race, or he could take it easy with no help.
Daytona Duel No. 2 Strategy
This is the JGR duel. The four JGR cars plus JGR-affiliate Bubba Wallace should hook up and ride around together. The safest place to do that is at the front, so look for them to try to get 1-5 and stay there.
In this duel, Greg Biffle and Timmy Hill must race their way into the Daytona 500. Hill was very slow in his qualifying lap and probably can’t hang with the pack. So like Duel 1, as long as Biffle can remain well ahead of Timmy Hill, he won’t have to get too racy.
The alternative to the Toyota pack is once again the bigger Ford drivers. That includes Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Aric Almirola. Like teammate Keselowski in Duel 1, Chris Buescher should be good to go in Duel 2 to race with the Ford camp. The same applies to Michael McDowell of FRM.
The Chevy camp isn’t as strong in this Duel. Bowman will be taking it easy. Ty Dillon will be taking it easy. That leaves Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., and Corey LaJoie. I don’t expect them to make big moves, but if any of them do, it would be Stenhouse. He’s aggressive, and the team has a backup car at the track.
The strategy: The strategy here is to stack the Toyotas, but I’d only use one of Truex or Hamlin in most of my Toyota stacks. That’s because they start closest to the front so they have less place differential to gain. So it’s likely one or the other will pick up the laps led, but not both. Add in the Fords, Austin Dillon, and Stenhouse to round out these lineups.
Alternatively, you can stack the Fords, while rounding these lineups out with a couple of Toyotas, Austin Dillon, or Stenhouse.
Daytona Duels Wrap Up
These races should be incredibly boring. And neither race is particularly appealing from a DFS standpoint on first glance. However, if you are actively paying attention to garage talk, you may be able to win the information game, which in turn will help you win in these DFS slates.
