The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The TOUR heads to Georgia this week as Sea Island Resort hosts the RSM Classic. There are two courses in play this week — the Seaside and Plantation. Seaside will be played in three of the four rounds and is par-70, measuring at 7,005 yards with Bermuda grass greens. The Plantation Course is a par-72, measuring 7,060 yards, and is the easier of the two.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, along with Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column that highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler ($10,900 DraftKings)
Normally DraftKings makes the highest-priced golfer in the field well over $11,000. They did us a nice favor by leaving Scheffler at $10,900 because he’s an absolute smash at this price.
This will not be a long writeup; the former Texas Longhorn is coming off a runner-up finish last week in Houston and a T-4 at Mayakoba the week prior.
Scheffler’s game is clicking on all cylinders right now, ranking fourth in this field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past eight rounds. He is a birdie-making machine that will be playing out of the fairway almost every hole, which you may have heard is pretty important at Sea Island. Scheffler has been knocking on the door of his first career PGA TOUR victory for a while now, and after finishing fifth at this event on debut back in 2019, this could very well be the event he gets over the hump. If paying up this week, Scheffler is the preferred option by a large margin.
Corey Conners ($9,900 DraftKings)
Maybe the purest ball-striker in this field, Conners, will be right in his wheelhouse this week at a short par-70 Bermuda track. This will be his fourth career start at Sea Island, having gone T-37, T-23, and T-10, respectively, in his first three trips.
As previously mentioned, playing out of the fairway and avoiding the rough will be paramount this week, and Conners ranks No. 2 in this field in SG: Off-the-Tee across his past 48 rounds.
His putting woes are less of a concern this week as Bermuda is his best surface, and his pinpoint iron play will give him routine birdie looks. The Canadian has improved his finishing position every year he’s played here, so if that trend continues, we are looking at another top-10 this week. He’s as safe a play as they come.
Russell Henley ($9,600 DraftKings)
Henley has been tearing up the fall swing, most recently with a T-7 finish last week in Houston. He gained strokes tee-to-green in every round at Memorial Golf Club and will now be playing a home game this week at Sea Island. Henley was born in Macon, Georgia, and went to college at UGA. He’s played this event eight times in the past decade and has three top-10’s in that stretch.
It is no surprise this Sea Island has treated him well, as Henley is a premier iron player who thrives on par-70 Bermuda tracks. The 32-year old ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach across his past 48 rounds and entering play at a familiar course in great form. The contextual factors are all in place for him to go well this week, and he should be a cash game staple.
Mackenzie Hughes ($8,600 DraftKings)
Hughes has a tricky past at Sea Island, having won this event back in back in 2017 but posting a T-65 with three missed cuts in his four additional appearances. He is, however, entering play in great form, having made each of his past seven cuts with a bunch of top-30 finishes in that stretch. We know the Canadian is not blowing anybody away with his ball-striking, but his short game and putter are both so strong that he’s always live for a top-20 anywhere he tees it up.
The fact that Hughes is coming in with good form and that he’s won here puts him firmly on the radar for cash games this week. There is not a ton to love in the $8,000 range on DraftKings this week, so if we’re going to roster someone there, make it Mac Hughes.
Value Plays
Chris Kirk ($8,000 DraftKings)
Kirk is another Georgia Bulldog playing a home game this week. The last time we saw him, he opened with a hole-in-one at Mayakoba, en route to a first-round 64. Unfortunately, he played the next three rounds at a combined plus-one, finishing in a tie for 64th. We will put that behind us, however, as he’s now made four consecutive cuts and boasts elite history at Sea Island.
Kirk won this event back in 2014 and has posted two additional top-fives since. Much like the other players in the field with great course history, Kirk is in his element at shorter par-70 tracks where driving distance is not a factor. He is a good mid-range iron player and has a great short game as well, giving us everything we’re looking at a course like this. At just $8,000 on DraftKings, Kirk is one of the better values on the board.
Henrik Norlander ($7,300 DraftKings)
Norlander has made four straight cuts at this event dating back to 2016. In that stretch, he’s posted a pair of top-five finishes, including a runner-up in 2017. The Swede has made every cut during the fall swing and even has a T-4 finish at the Sanderson Farms a few weeks back. Nothing in particular about his game will blow you away, but he is a better putter on Bermuda and can get hot with his irons at times. At this price, all we are looking for is a made cut, something he seems to do every time he plays here.
Norlander currently resides in Augusta, Ga., so it’s likely he played this course a ton. He stands out in what looks to be a barren $7,000 range this week.
Alex Smalley ($7,100 DraftKings)
Smalley has very much looked the part during his brief stint on the PGA TOUR this season, having made four of five cuts including back-to-back top-15 finishes the last two weeks at Houston and Bermuda. Last week was especially impressive, as he gained over 1.2 strokes on approach both Saturday and Sunday at Memorial Park, which has shown to be a big boy course.
Albeit over a small sample (14 rounds), Smalley has putted extremely well on Bermuda, gaining about 0.4 strokes per round on the field. The 25-year old appears to be the real deal, and hardly anyone knows how good he is just yet. DraftKings somehow lowered his salary after two strong weeks, so let’s pounce on this. Smalley is a great play in all formats.
