NFL Week 14 features an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen did not look like his usual dominant self in his last outing, but I think we can give him a pass. Not only was he facing a tough Patriots’ defense, but he was also playing in hurricane-like conditions. Mac Jones threw just three passes in that contest, which goes to show just how brutal the weather was.
He takes the field in a much more favorable spot this week vs. the Buccaneers. Their defense has been solid this season, ranking seventh in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, but Allen is capable of finding success in that matchup. More importantly, the total on that game sits at 53.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a sizable margin. No other game owns a total of above 48.5.
Allen is also a road underdog, and he has historically found success in that role. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.55 in that situation, including a mark of +8.87 since the start of last season (per the Trends tool).
Value
Rushing ability is the Konami Code for fantasy quarterbacks, which makes Taysom Hill a very appealing option vs. the Jets. The Saints are not afraid to use Hill like a running back, and he racked up 11 carries for 101 yards last week. That kind of production is enough for Hill to return value before factoring in any of his passing statistics.
Hill also draws arguably the best possible matchup in Week 14. The Jets have been nothing short of a disaster defensively this season, ranking dead last in points and yards per game allowed. Hill leads all quarterbacks with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.4 on DraftKings, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Quick Hits
Patrick Mahomes has not been delivering vintage Mahomes performances recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on DraftKings. The lone exception? Week 10 vs. the Raiders, where Mahomes finished with 406 passing yards and five touchdowns. He’ll face the Raiders again this Week – this time in Kansas City – so he’s worth some buy-low consideration.
Dak Prescott is popping as a potentially overlooked option in our NFL Models. He owns the second-highest Ceiling Projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel, yet he’s projected for modest ownership across the industry. He should be able to do some damage vs. the Football Team, who ranks just 30th in pass defense DVOA.
Hill is going to be a chalky option for those spending down at quarterbacks, but there are some interesting pivots. Billy Ward makes the case for Cam Newton in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Running Back
Stud
Austin Ekeler has been an excellent fantasy running back of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on DraftKings. He could be poised for another monster performance this week.
For starters, Ekeler owns an outstanding matchup vs. the Giants. They’ve been a major run-funnel this season, ranking eighth in pass defense DVOA but just 31st in rushing. That means teams have found much more success on the ground, so the Chargers could look to #establishit a bit more than usual.
When they do take to the air, Ekeler could be more involved in that department as well. The Chargers have ruled out Keenan Allen for this contest, who is the team’s leader in most receiving metrics. Allen also operates primarily in the short areas of the field, which is where Ekeler does most of his damage. The Giants have done well against running backs in the passing game – they rank fourth in DVOA – but Ekeler is not the typical running back.
Ultimately, Ekeler owns the top Median and Ceiling Projections in our NFL Models.
Value
There are some nice options to consider in the low-to-mid range at running back, but Jeff Wilson stands out above the rest on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,400, and he should serve as the team’s primary running back with Elijah Mitchell sidelined. Wilson racked up 19 carries the last time Mitchell was out, and while that didn’t lead to much fantasy production, it provides some optimism on Sunday.
He draws a decent matchup this week vs. the Bengals. They’ve been middle-of-the-pack in terms of run defense this season, giving Wilson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.4.
Wilson leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so he should be a staple of cash game lineups.
Quick Hits
Tony Pollard is currently questionable for the Cowboys, and his absence would allow Ezekiel Elliott to resume his workhorse role. He’s lost some touches to Pollard of late, but Elliott is still capable of racking up big performances when featured. He’s had five games with at least 20 touches this season, and he’s averaged 20.46 DraftKings points in those contests.
Antonio Gibson was expected to be busy last week with J.D. McKissic out of the lineup, and he did not disappoint. He finished with 23 carries and six targets, and he ultimately racked up 22.1 DraftKings points. McKissic is questionable for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Cowboys, and Gibson would be an elite option if he’s ruled out once again. He’s a particularly strong option on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
The Jets defense has been dominated by running backs recently, and they’ll be facing one of the best in the business this week in Alvin Kamara. There’s a chance that he could see limited touches in his first game back in the lineup, but the Saints are also playing without Mark Ingram. If Kamara steps right back into a workhorse role, he could do some serious damage in this matchup.
Leonard Fournette was expected to form a committee with Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard this season, but he has emerged as the clear top option. He played on 61 of a possible 70 snaps last week, and he racked up at least eight targets for the third time in the past four weeks. That work as a receiver is extremely valuable, and he should be highly involved once again with Antonio Brown out of the lineup.
There’s a bit of uncertainty with the Jets’ and Lions’ backfields at the moment, but there could be some fantasy value to be had. The Jets are down both Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman, while the Lions will be without D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. Ty Johnson and Godwin Igwebuike are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries, and their ownership should be modest at best.
Melvin Gordon is questionable for the Broncos, and if he’s out, expect Javonte Williams to be the chalk at the position. Billy Ward highlights Williams in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Wide Receiver
Stud
As usual, most of the top receiver values on Sunday’s slate stand out on FanDuel. There are three receivers priced at $8,200 or greater – Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, and Stefon Diggs – and each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 92%.
However, Chris Godwin stands out as the strongest option at the position this week. He laid a massive egg two weeks ago, finishing with just 2.7 FanDuel points, but he bounced back with 22.7 FanDuel points last week. He racked up a robust 17 targets in that contest, and he’s garnered at least 11 in three of his past six games. Godwin should continue to see a few additional targets with Brown sidelined, and he’s clearly surpassed Mike Evans as the team’s top receiver.
His matchup vs. the Bills isn’t great on paper, but the Bills’ secondary is a lot less intimidating without Tre’Davious White. Their remaining corners aren’t nearly as imposing, so Godwin should be able to take advantage.
Value
In addition to being down their top two running backs, the Jets are also down their top two receivers. Corey Davis has been ruled out for the rest of the year, while Elijah Moore will miss at least the next three weeks after landing on Injured Reserve.
That leaves Jamison Crowder as their clear top remaining pass-catcher. His role has fluctuated throughout the year, but Crowder is still capable when targeted. He’s had four games with double-digit fantasy points this season, and I would bet on him making five this week.
Quick Hits
Mike Williams has been activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list, so he is expected to suit up for the Chargers this Sunday. That makes him a very interesting option with Allen sidelined. He’s expected to garner heavy ownership, but he undoubtedly has a higher ceiling than usual.
The fact that Hunter Renfrow has been priced up to $6,100 on DraftKings is pretty crazy. What’s even crazier is that he still looks like a strong DFS option. Renfrow has been a target machine for most of the season, and he’s coming off back-to-back 100-yard games. He should be busy again this week with Darren Waller out of the lineup.
Jarvis Landry is in a similar spot to Renfrow, but he’s slightly cheaper and shouldn’t command as much ownership. He’s basically the last man standing in the Browns’ passing attack, and he racked up 10 targets in their last game. Baker Mayfield has been dreadful for most of the season, but it’s possible that he’s a bit healthier following their bye week.
If you’re paying up for one of the top three receivers on FanDuel, Hill gets my vote. He leads the position in Ceiling Projection by a sizable margin, and he’s posted some big games against the Raiders in the past. He racked up 24.0 FanDuel points in his first matchup vs. the Raiders this season, and he scored at least 16.8 FanDuel points in both meetings vs. the Raiders last year.
Do the Bengals receivers warrant consideration this week? What about the Cowboys? Billy Ward examines both teams in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Tight End
Stud
Paying up for a stud tight end is definitely a viable strategy this week, especially on FanDuel. Travis Kelce stands out as the best of the bunch, and his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Kelce hasn’t delivered a monster performance in a while, but he has been relatively consistent. He’s coming off a dreadful 4.2 FanDuel points last week vs. the Broncos, but he did see eight targets in that contest. That’s right in line with his season average, and he finished with at least 15.3 FanDuel points in each of his three previous games.
Kelce is in an excellent bounce-back spot vs. the Raiders. They rank 30th in DVOA vs. the position, and Kelce owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.9 on FanDuel. That’s the top mark at the position, and Kelce had more than 100 receiving yards in his first game vs. the Raiders this season.
Kelce is currently projected for less than 20% ownership on FanDuel, which seems like a mistake to me. I’ll have plenty of exposure in tournaments, and he deserves heavy consideration in cash games, as well.
Value
If you’re not going with Kelce this week, Austin Hooper is a strong alternative. He’s very affordable across the industry, and he should see a ton of work for the Browns this week. They’ve deployed three tight ends at times this season, but David Njoku and Harrison Bryant have both been ruled out vs. the Ravens. That leaves Hooper as the last man standing at the position.
He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so he’s definitely a viable option.
Quick Hits
There’s a bit of sticker shock with Rob Gronkowski, who’s up to $6,000 this week on DraftKings. That could lead to lower ownership than usual, but Gronk has been worth every penny recently. He’s scored at 21.8 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s operated as high-end TE1 when he’s been healthy this season.
Jared Cook is another potential beneficiary of the Allen absence. He has already been involved in the Chargers’ passing attack this season, and he could earn a few additional targets vs. the Giants. He’s underpriced on DraftKings, where his $3,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Billy Ward breaks down a few additional tight ends worth considering in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Roster Construction
The status of Gordon is going to be very important to monitor on Sunday morning. We have Williams graded as a strong play even if Gordon is active, but I’m not sure if I’d consider him cash-game worthy if Gordon is in the lineup. Those two players have split the work all season when healthy, so I wouldn’t expect another 20-touch performance from Williams in that situation. However, if Gordon is out, Williams becomes a slam-dunk cash play as a 10-point favorite vs. the Lions.
For the time being, I’m going to operate as though Gordon will play, so I’m going to leave Williams out of my cash game construction.
This seems like a really nice week to build a relatively balanced lineup. I’m starting by locking in Wilson at running back and Hooper at tight end, who stand out as two of the better pure values on the slate. They cost a combined $7,800 on DraftKings, but we have them projected for more than 22.6 combined DraftKings points.
After that, Hill seems like too good of a value to pass up at quarterback. Even if he doesn’t run for 100 yards again, he should be able to easily pay off his current price tag vs. the Jets.
That trio leaves you with plenty of salary to fill out the rest of your lineup. I like the idea of going with the three midrange options at receiver – Godwin, Renfrow, and Landry – which allows you to spend up for your remaining combinations. Ekeler and Gibson is one possible combination, but you can get pretty much whatever duo interests you most.
You could also pay up for Tyreek at receiver, but that likely means sacrificing Ekeler. I prefer the stud running back in my cash game build, but there’s no denying Hill’s upside.
On FanDuel, I’m much more interested in jamming Hill into my cash game teams. In fact, Hill and Kelce are both building blocks for me on that site. Godwin also stands out as a stronger player on FanDuel, so I’m placing a much greater emphasis on the pass-catchers.
Still, using Wilson once again still leaves plenty of salary for the running back position. You can also use Crowder as your WR3, which leaves plenty of room for two stud running backs. You might not be able to fit someone like Ekeler or Kamara, but Fournette, Elliott, Gibson, and Nick Chubb all fit the bill.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles.
Good luck this week!
