While most daily fantasy players are more familiar with the usual salary-cap structure, DraftKings also has tournaments in a pick ’em style: There are no player salaries, and you simply select one player across each of the eight tiers.
Here’s a breakdown of the pick ’em slate for Week 8 of the NFL season.
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Tier 1: Elite Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
There will never be a scenario in which it’s worth fading Mahomes in cash lineups. He’s finished as a top-12 passer in six of seven weeks on the back of a league-leading 22 passing touchdowns.
His efficiency is also unreal:
- 9.7 average yards per pass attempt (T-4th)
- 8.8% passing touchdown rate (1st)
- 114 Quarterback Rating (5th)
Mahomes is currently playing like the best quarterback in the NFL. Fade him at your own risk.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
After a slow start, Rodgers has been dominant the past two weeks. He’s combined for 867 yards and five touchdowns in only two games. Now he and the Packers square off against the Rams in a matchup that Vegas expects to be a shootout with a 56.5 over/under as of writing (see live odds here).
Historically Rodgers has crushed in games with totals higher than 50 points (per our Trends Tool):
Rodgers is the best pivot from Mahomes.
Tier 2: The Next Passers
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben has been throwing for more yards (338.8 per game) than he ever has before, but the touchdowns have yet to follow. His 4.6% touchdown rate is below his career average.
This week he gets the better side of his infamous home/road splits. Roethlisberger is also a favorite of the FantasyLabs Models, with top 5 floor, median and ceiling projections. Stacking Big Ben with his receiving options is a great way to capitalize on expected touchdown regression.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Goff leads all current starters with 9.8 average yards per attempt, but his touchdown rate of 6.4% is tied for fifth among all passers. That could turn around against the Packers, who have allowed a touchdown on a staggering 6.6% of passes, the highest rate in the NFL, but are giving up rushing touchdowns at a low 2.2% rate, which ranks 23rd in the league (per our Matchups Tool).
Double down on the Packers-Rams showdown with both passers.
Tier 3: Elite Flexes
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Thielen is chasing history with seven consecutive games of 100-plus receiving yards. One more and he’ll tie the record. And based on volume, that’s rather likely. He leads the league with 89 targets, 67 receptions and 822 yards.
Against the Saints, who allow the most points to opposing receivers, Thielen is a lock in cash lineups.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Barkley is seeing a reasonable 14 carries per game, but his work as a receiver sets him apart from any other rusher. He’s sixth in the NFL (including receivers) with 49 receptions.
Because of this volume, he’s hit 100 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in every game this season. He’s a safe bet and the choice of our Models outside of Thielen, who figures to be the chalk of the tier.
Tier 4: Stacking Options
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
JuJu has been the preferred red-zone receiver for Pittsburgh: He leads the team and the league in red-zone targets with 16. Despite this, he’s scored only two times.
As a major candidate for positive scoring regression, stacking JuJu and Big Ben is a sneaky tournament move.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Adams and Rodgers have an incredibly high .80 correlation between their fantasy scores, which means any time Rodgers is a good play, Adams is likely a good play. Adams’ floor this season has been 16.1 points.
His matchup with the Rams is also enticing as Los Angeles been shredded by competent passers.
Rams defense vs. Rivers/Cousins/Wilson/Keenum:
26.3 PPG
271.8 pass yards per gamevs. Beathard/Carr/Bradford
7.7 PPG
168 pass yards per game pic.twitter.com/4lTHWY9HSw— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 25, 2018
The Rodgers-Adams combo has a high floor and — should this game hit its total — a monstrous ceiling.
Tier 5: Upside Plays
Brandin Cooks, WR, Los Angeles Rams
In the absence of Cooper Kupp (knee, doubtful), Cooks might be the biggest beneficiary. Kupp leads Rams receivers with 11 red-zone targets while Cooks is close behind at 9. (Robert Woods hasn’t seen a red-zone target since Week 3.)
Cooks is also a favorite of our analysts with nine Pro Trends. Trust the pros and stack Cooks with Goff.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Through three weeks, Hunt had one reception on three targets. Since then he’s had 14 receptions on 18 targets and has found the end zone on three catches. Unsurprisingly, those were also his four best fantasy performances.
Add his resurgence in the passing game to an overwhelmingly positive game-script — the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites over the Broncos — and Hunt is a good bet to get volume this week.
Tier 6: More Receiving Threats
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck is attempting 44.4 passes per game. Over a full season, this would be the second-highest pass total ever. Hilton’s competition for targets is Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers, who have one 100-yard game in their combined 102 career games, which means Sunday will be the Hilton show.
Hilton will get his share of this volume against Football Outsiders’ 29th-ranked defense in DVOA (the Raiders). Numerous targets against a bad defense equal a good week for Hilton.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Kelce is second to only Zach Ertz in targets, receiving yards and fantasy points among tight ends. Kelce has had at least five receptions and double-digit fantasy points in every game since a Week 1 dud. He has a high floor and a surprising ceiling.
The ceiling is boosted by the Chiefs’ 31.75 implied team total and their propensity to score through the air — 75.9%of their scores have come via passing. Kelce is a safe way to leverage the Chiefs’ unstoppable offense.
Tier 7: All Lions
Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions
Golladay has all but taken over as the Lions’ No. 2 receiver. He’s second on the team in targets (43), receptions (29) and Air Yards (533). He’s also first in receiving yards. This week he gets a Seahawks secondary that starts three corners who all grade outside Pro Football Focus’ top 80 at the position.
Golladay is set to feast on a weak defense.
Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions
Johnson proved, yet again, that he’s Detroit’s best back last week when he rushed for 158 yards on 19 carries. His snaps are also trending upward as he saw the field 38 times, the most of his career. It’s fitting that Golladay and Johnson are in the same tier as they have a .84 correlation.
Golladay has the higher median projection, but Johnson takes the cake in ceiling, making him the preferred tournament play.
Tier 8: Low-End Flexes
DeSean Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jackson has been a favorite target of Jameis Winston since the quarterback’s return. In three games with (or partially with) Winston, Jackson owns a 19% target share and 25% Air Yards share.
The Bucs’ matchup with the Bengals has a 54.5-point total that has already risen one point from opening. As one of Winston’s favorite targets in a shootout, Jackson is the ideal tournament play.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington Redskins
In games he hasn’t left with an injury, Peterson has averaged 19.4 attempts with Washington. He’s also been relatively efficient on those carries, running at 4.3 yards per attempt.
Washington has skewed heavily toward the run, rushing 54.1% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league. With the Redskins 1-point favorites, Vegas expects Washington to have a lead, which is the perfect scenario for Peterson to see a large number of touches.
