While most daily fantasy players are more familiar with the usual salary-cap structure, DraftKings also has tournaments in a pick ’em style: There are no player salaries, and you simply select one player across each of the eight tiers.
Here’s a breakdown of the pick ’em slate for Week 7 of the NFL season.
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Tier 1: Elite Passers
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Through six games, Mahomes’ floor has been 20 fantasy points. He enters the week with the highest median, ceiling and floor projections among passers in our Player Models. He averages 6.7 red-zone passes per game and tacks on an additional 1.3 rushes within the 20 per game.
With multiple avenues to score, Mahomes is the move in cash again this week.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Cousins has found his home in Minnesota, averaging 320.2 yards and two touchdowns per game. Both marks are career-highs. He’s also averaging 3.5 rush attempts per game, another career-high mark, which adds to his fantasy floor.
This week he gets a Jets defense that could be without three starters in the secondary.
Cousins has a slightly lower projection than Jameis Winston (another solid play in Tier 1), but a marginal sacrifice is worth it to pivot from one of the most popular plays in the tier.
Tier 2: The Next Passers
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
In his first year under offensive coordinator Norv Turner, Newton is on pace to set a career-best mark in completion percentage (65.9%) on a career-high in attempts per game (34).
Despite this passing increase, Newton is also being used more than ever as a rusher. His nine carries per game are also the highest of his career.
Newton’s rushing floor and passing success give him a top-five floor projection and make him the ideal cash quarterback.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
With 48 pass attempts per game, Luck is pacing to set the NFL record for attempts in a season. After three weeks he averaged a league-bottom 5.6 average depth of target (aDOT). Since then, Luck has averaged a 9.4 aDOT. This plays into his strengths this season as he’s been unsuccessful throwing short but extremely effective attacking the intermediate and deep perimeters.
Courtesy: Next Gen Stats
Being used more effectively and incredibly often, Luck is the preferred tournament play of this tier.
Tier 3: Elite Flexes
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Zeke sits at second in the league with 19.5 carries per game. The Washington defense is just 18th in points allowed to running backs, but that is primarily a function of usage. Washington’s opponents have attempted the fewest runs, but in terms of quality, the Redskins have been exploitable: Pro Football Focus has them as the second-worst run-stopping unit.
Zeke should have no problem in Washington.
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Thielen has hit 100 yards in every game this season and has scored in four of six. He also has a .50 correlation with Cousins and the highest median projection in Tier 3. Stacking Thielen and Cousins is a way to differentiate lineups that feature the star receiver.
Tier 4: Bellcow Backs
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Despite competing for carries, McCaffrey and Newton have a staggering .81 correlation in fantasy points. This is partially due to McCaffrey’s usage as a receiver: He leads all Panthers with eight targets per game. Add in 14.2 carries per game, and a Newton-McCaffrey combo has the potential to be lucrative.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas expects the Bengals’ showdown with the Chiefs to be a shootout with a 58.5 over/under (see live odds here). Mixon is a great way to get a part of this game and leverage Mahomes’ fantasy value: Running backs historically have a .32 correlation with the opposing passer.
The Chiefs give up the second-most points to opposing backs, making Mixon an interesting option in attacking this game.
Tier 5: High-End Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
The Jacksonville defense has been just as daunting as it was last season, but that didn’t stop Hopkins from averaging 18.3 fantasy points against the Jaguars in two games in 2017. He saw a combined 29 targets in those two games and is seventh in targets this season with 10.7 per game.
A tough matchup will scare many off Hopkins, but he still has tournament-winning potential.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
Woods leads Rams receivers with 51 targets and 570 Air Yards. The Rams have the second-highest implied total of the slate (31.25 points).
Cooper Kupp (knee) was ruled out of the Rams’ matchup with the 49ers, who have given up the ninth-most points to receivers. This should leave Woods a larger role against a porous defense this week.
Tier 6: Receivers Galore
Golden Tate, Detroit Lions
Tate has been targeted at least seven times in every game this season and brought down no fewer than five in a game. He operates as the Lions’ primary slot receiver with three wideouts on the field, which will see him facing Minkah Fitzpatrick. This is good news for Tate, as Fitzpatrick ranks outside PFF’s top-50 corners.
Tate is a safe bet in a good matchup.
DeSean Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In Jackson’s first game with Winston this season, the veteran receiver led the Bucs with nine targets and 180 Air Yards. Playing one fewer game due to injury, Jackson has a team-high in Air Yards over the season as well.
Jackson has a .48 correlation with Winston, which makes Jackson a way to get exposure to the quarterback and to the 51.5 over/under in Bucs-Browns with lower ownership.
Tier 7: Betting On Volume
Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots
After missing the Patriots’ first game with an injury, Michel has been a workhorse since returning. His 18.2 carries and 4.2 red-zone carries per game rank fourth and second, respectively. Patriots-Bears has a 48.5 over/under, making a high-volume back involved in this outing a good bet to find the end zone.
John Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins: That’s the list of players with more Air Yards than Brown, who has become a high-volume, deep ball specialist with a 19.7 aDOT this season.
This week he faces a Saints defense that has allowed the most points to opposing receivers.
Week 7 matchups with sum of pressure rates between opposing offenses and defenses
Higher percentage: that offensive line could be in trouble (red)
Lower percentage: not expecting much pressure on QB (green) pic.twitter.com/AW13WfZ4aE— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 17, 2018
With little resistance from the Saints defensive line, Joe Flacco will have ample time to find Brown deep down the field.
Tier 8: Upside Flex Plays
Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina Panthers
Funchess represents another viable way to stack the Panthers’ passing attack. He’s seen 41.7% of his targets 15 yards downfield or greater, and the Eagles defense will be especially susceptible to deep balls with safety Rodney McLeod out.
Stacking Funchess with Newton is a pivot off McCaffrey, which will be the more popular way to stack this offense.
Taylor Gabriel, WR, Chicago Bears
Gabriel has 53.3 fantasy points in his past two outings. Both games crushed the over, hitting 57- and 58-point totals. This week, Vegas expects that trend to continue, putting Gabriel in a sneaky spot to repeat.
Gabriel has solidified himself as the Bears’ No. 2 receiver and is a solid play against the 29th defense in points allowed to receivers.
Pictured above: Christian McCaffrey, Cam Newton
Credit: Scott Clause/Daily Advertiser via USA TODAY Sports
